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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The GFS has been consistently overestimating the depth of cold and strength of HP at med to long leads for weeks. While anything is possible, suppression would be low on the list of things to be concerned with. 

Do an excercise over the next 8 gfs runs with that cold dome. I'd be willing to bet with less than equal odds that it will come in weaker over time. 

Unfortunately this is a valid point. I've watched meteostar moderate the cold with each run a little at a time.

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11 minutes ago, TiltedStorm said:

The para and CNC are in a agreement of a mix/ICE storm in the CAD areas next weekend and Monday. Timing is a little off. Question is will cold air be in place.. Mackerel thoughts? I know you are in the same town as I.

Imo, ice from a CAD event , is definitely on the table in the next two weeks, even if we don't get crazy cold! All we need is lots of cold in the plains and or NE, and let the mountains do our dirty work

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10 minutes ago, griteater said:

Ice hangs on at hr204 in NE GA, SC upstate, and central NC, including RDU

Interesting that one of the analogs I that I saw quite often this fall for the upcoming winter was 83/84.  I was a freshman in college that winter.  It featured a very cold December including a brutal cold spell around Christmas.  Unfortunately, we could get no snow that December but we did have multiple freezing rain events including the coldest temp freezing rain event I ever experienced.  As I recall, the freezing rain started falling that morning with temps still in the low 20's.  Hope we can cash in on snow/sleet and avoid the freezing rain. 

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