Cold Rain Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 15 minutes ago, packbacker said: LOL....The hostile Atlantic for the last 5-6 years has really gotten old and that looks to continue. This is the first winter that I am enjoying whatever weather we get...cold/rain/warmth. Knowing that we have unfavorable Atlantic again anything we do get will be our typical pingers...meh. Cold feels good today, the 60F's next week will be nice too. I would be happy with that this winter, wild swings in temps with some rains in the middle. Agreed. We need a better Atlantic in a bad way. We'll get some mix, while Rocky Mount gets another 10" snowstorm in the teens. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 6z GEFS doesn't look great in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: I think it's pretty evident that it's beginning to change just based on the the weather we're having, and the models are having a helluva time picking up on it. It's very possible. I want to see some more evidence, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Edited for dated info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthGaWinter Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: You must be new here? A wedge being shown that strongly, that far out, does not just go away! I think between now and Christmas , somebody in the CAD areas, get a mod/severe ice event! Actually not new here. I've been around a while, had to create a new account. I live around Gainesville so I'm very familiar with CAD. I know that it overperforms,but if you watch the rest of the run the HP goes way off in the Atlantic thanks to a Lakes low. And our system cuts. That's not great for CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, tramadoc said: I'm not losing my touch. Being married has fine tuned my acknowledgement of sarcasm. Lol mine too! I can hear it in the other room, across the yard, and over the phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 minutes ago, WXinCanton said: we need help here That's old data there. Shows last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Pretty significant CAD signal d8-10 on the EPS. Mean temp/slp/850 panels all show an unusually strong wedge for this early. Mixed and/or ice event could be in the card for you guys late next week. I just made a post about this in the MA forum. Classic wedge/tn valley runner signal with legit cold wedge in place. It could all go poof but we're at least talking 8-9 days instead of 10+. Folks in the classic CAD regions could have some fun with this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Let me try this again. fail lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 one more try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 12 minutes ago, GaStorm said: That's old data there. Shows last month. Yeah I posted the wrong stuff. If you insert the link it pulls up the old info. That old data looks better than the current stuff lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, WXinCanton said: Yeah I posted the right stuff. That data looks better than the current stuff lol. I see. Nothing is set in stone that far out so it will probably change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 All the storms crashing into the NW, is that Nina style!? I read we are basically enso neutral, at this juncture!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: All the storms crashing into the NW, is that Nina style!? I read we are basically enso neutral, at this juncture!? For whatever reason I've noticed when the NW is getting storms off the pacific we don't seem to do very well snowfall wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Looks like a close call on the 12z GFS for the 12/17 time period. Cold air, and a system suppressed and out to sea. Sound familiar??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Even though it's hanging to our north, it's an impressive looking cold dome on 12z GFS. Some moisture in the gulf streams northeast and hits SE VA with some light snow it looks like with strong sfc high over Iowa. Looks like the next larger system coming out of the west is going to cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 close call indeed at 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Even though it's hanging to our north, it's an impressive looking cold dome on 12z GFS. Some moisture in the gulf streams northeast and hits SE VA with some light snow it looks like with strong sfc high over Iowa. Looks like the next larger system coming out of the west is going to cut CMC is a crippling ice storm day 9 or so...but when it's the CMC showing a ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Can we get the northwest trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Hopefully in January we get the exact opposite of this in the artic and the pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1044mb high over Pittsburgh at 216. Killer CAD setup, but big trough in California with precip streaming toward Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: CMC is a crippling ice storm day 9 or so...but when it's the CMC showing a ice storm. GFS & CMC both good runs with the large polar dome...though again it hangs mostly to our north. Mentioned it the other day, but I think our 'hopes and dreams' for wintry precip lies in the polar plunge overperforming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 CMC always has done well with ice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS & CMC both good runs with the large polar dome...though again it hangs mostly to our north. Mentioned it the other day, but I think our 'hopes and dreams' for wintry precip lies in the polar plunge overperforming How would a neutral PNA affect the cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Holy CNC batman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 minutes ago, TiltedStorm said: How would a neutral PNA affect the cold? The PNA covers a huge area from the Pacific Ocean across all of N America...so it would depend on what was making the index neutral (i.e. where the specific positive / negative height anomalies are located) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 So, the para has back to back threats next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 So, the para has back to back threats next weekend? Yep the 06z para does. one on the 17th and the 19thSent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 The GFS has been consistently overestimating the depth of cold and strength of HP at med to long leads for weeks. While anything is possible, suppression would be low on the list of things to be concerned with. Do an excercise over the next 8 gfs runs with that cold dome. I'd be willing to bet with less than equal odds that it will come in weaker over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 The para and CNC are in a agreement of a mix/ICE storm in the CAD areas next weekend and Monday. Timing is a little off. Question is will cold air be in place.. Mackerel thoughts? I know you are in the same town as I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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