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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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15 minutes ago, packbacker said:

LOL....The hostile Atlantic for the last 5-6 years has really gotten old and that looks to continue.  This is the first winter that I am enjoying whatever weather we get...cold/rain/warmth.  Knowing that we have unfavorable Atlantic again anything we do get will be our typical pingers...meh.  

Cold feels good today, the 60F's next week will be nice too.  I would be happy with that this winter, wild swings in temps with some rains in the middle.  

Agreed.  We need a better Atlantic in a bad way.  We'll get some mix, while Rocky Mount gets another 10" snowstorm in the teens.  Haha

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5 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

You must be new here? A wedge being shown that strongly, that far out, does not just go away! I think between now and Christmas , somebody in the CAD areas, get a mod/severe ice event!

Actually not new here. I've been around a while, had to create a new account. I live around Gainesville so I'm very familiar with CAD. I know that it overperforms,but if you watch the rest of the run the HP goes way off in the Atlantic thanks to a Lakes low. And our system cuts. That's not great for CAD 

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Pretty significant CAD signal d8-10 on the EPS. Mean temp/slp/850 panels all show an unusually strong wedge for this early. Mixed and/or ice event could be in the card for you guys late next week. I just made a post about this in the MA forum. 

Classic wedge/tn valley runner signal with legit cold wedge in place. It could all go poof but we're at least talking 8-9 days instead of 10+. Folks in the classic CAD regions could have some fun with this:

epslowloc.JPG

 

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Even though it's hanging to our north, it's an impressive looking cold dome on 12z GFS.  Some moisture in the gulf streams northeast and hits SE VA with some light snow it looks like with strong sfc high over Iowa.  Looks like the next larger system coming out of the west is going to cut

CMC is a crippling ice storm day 9 or so...but when it's the CMC showing a ice storm.

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5 minutes ago, packbacker said:

CMC is a crippling ice storm day 9 or so...but when it's the CMC showing a ice storm.

GFS & CMC both good runs with the large polar dome...though again it hangs mostly to our north.  Mentioned it the other day, but I think our 'hopes and dreams' for wintry precip lies in the polar plunge overperforming

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5 minutes ago, griteater said:

GFS & CMC both good runs with the large polar dome...though again it hangs mostly to our north.  Mentioned it the other day, but I think our 'hopes and dreams' for wintry precip lies in the polar plunge overperforming

How would a neutral PNA affect the cold?  

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The GFS has been consistently overestimating the depth of cold and strength of HP at med to long leads for weeks. While anything is possible, suppression would be low on the list of things to be concerned with. 

Do an excercise over the next 8 gfs runs with that cold dome. I'd be willing to bet with less than equal odds that it will come in weaker over time. 

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