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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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If we don't have winter weather by Jan 10 we won't get any at all. This will be a classic LaNina winter I'm afraid, which means warmer and especially drier than normal. The big story for the next 6-10 months will be the drought which is only getting started and will get much worse.

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I don't think we need a solid week of below freezing for highs to get a good winter storm, though. That kind of cold is usually transient here. There's been plenty of times when we've been above normal for temps a week before getting a good winter storm. I don't think the cold has to be locked in place that long for us to get something good. 

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1 minute ago, packbacker said:

Agree...the similarities in Dec 13th strat too.  Once Jan 2014 started though we got a favorable strat configuration to dump cold in the east.  Probably going to need the same.

If we get early/mid Jan with a stout SER that would suck.

 

There is about a 90% chance that happens thanks to LaNina. We are probably getting our coldest weather of this fall and winter right now.

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3 minutes ago, jshetley said:

There is about a 90% chance that happens thanks to LaNina. We are probably getting our coldest weather of this fall and winter right now.

My guess would be 30-40% chance.   If we were in a mod/strong nina I would agree but we are as neutral right now as you can be.  I really think/hope once we get into Jan we see the SER weaken.  Though, I am knocking on as much wood as I can right now as I type this.  

You have to give it to the CFS as it had progged Dec to have the cold dumped in the west and warm in the SE and even the east.  Though, it may be on the NE as that looks like it should be BN.

I think Jan will need some help from the strat.

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Unfortunately, the pattern seems to strongly favor a significant and recurring SER.  Until we see that feature stop showing up on these various model runs, you can safely conclude that any real cold pattern will be transient in the SE.  The Midwest and northern tier should benefit though.

We need to hope that plenty of snow and cold builds across the north through December so that we can make use of it if the pattern eventually changes later in the winter.


thing is though the SER idea has really only been present over the last 24 hours. up until yesterday it was hit or miss on op runs. Thing is the we are getting different ideas for the pacific pattern every single run. the 18z gfs pacific pattern was a disaster therfore torched the country . I'm not sold on a lasting SER until we see how the pacific plays put

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27 minutes ago, jshetley said:

If we don't have winter weather by Jan 10 we won't get any at all. 

Speak for your BY. We got 1 winter storm last year, during a torch winter and it was during the 3rd week of Janurary. We ended up with 14" of snow in my yard. Your pickings may be slim to none, and they are every winter in SC, but all it's going to take is one instance where it all comes together. There no sense in these doomcasts for winter, on December the 9th. Last year's storm didn't show up until 15th on the models, forecast for the 20th IIRC. We'll have our chances.

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56 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Unfortunately, the pattern seems to strongly favor a significant and recurring SER.  Until we see that feature stop showing up on these various model runs, you can safely conclude that any real cold pattern will be transient in the SE.  The Midwest and northern tier should benefit though.

We need to hope that plenty of snow and cold builds across the north through December so that we can make use of it if the pattern eventually changes later in the winter.

We now looking at backloaded winter again? Fab Feb!? Marvelous March?

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And by the way, models vary a lot beyond 5 days.  That's very typical.  Every year we watch this happen and wonder why the models are flipping and flopping in the LR.  Every year.

Thats not what bothers me.  We've been in a pretty persistent state of above normal temps and below normal precipitation (generally) in the SE for months.  Now, maybe that's starting to change, but until we start to build some evidence of it over a period of time, I'm going to give persistence the nod in favor of typical model oscillations that might periodically point to a cold and wet pattern in the LR.

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3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

When do we not?!  Pretty soon "backloaded" is going to mean "next winter".

LOL....The hostile Atlantic for the last 5-6 years has really gotten old and that looks to continue.  This is the first winter that I am enjoying whatever weather we get...cold/rain/warmth.  Knowing that we have unfavorable Atlantic again anything we do get will be our typical pingers...meh.  

Cold feels good today, the 60F's next week will be nice too.  I would be happy with that this winter, wild swings in temps with some rains in the middle.  

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11 minutes ago, Stormcatt said:

00z gfs para is much different at H5 vs the gfs. far more aggressive

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JB was mentioning yesterday that the para was much more realistic and in line with Euro.  Maybe there's hope for the GFS yet? Does anyone know when the Para becomes the op?

 

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JB was mentioning yesterday that the para was much more realistic and in line with Euro.  Maybe there's hope for the GFS yet? Does anyone know when the Para becomes the op?

 



not sure, I do know the gfs is being replaced all together in 2019

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18 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

We've been in a pretty persistent state of above normal temps and below normal precipitation (generally) in the SE for months.  Now, maybe that's starting to change

I think it's pretty evident that it's beginning to change just based on the the weather we're having, and the models are having a helluva time picking up on it.

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