jshetley Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 If we don't have winter weather by Jan 10 we won't get any at all. This will be a classic LaNina winter I'm afraid, which means warmer and especially drier than normal. The big story for the next 6-10 months will be the drought which is only getting started and will get much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I don't think we need a solid week of below freezing for highs to get a good winter storm, though. That kind of cold is usually transient here. There's been plenty of times when we've been above normal for temps a week before getting a good winter storm. I don't think the cold has to be locked in place that long for us to get something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Agree...the similarities in Dec 13th strat too. Once Jan 2014 started though we got a favorable strat configuration to dump cold in the east. Probably going to need the same. If we get early/mid Jan with a stout SER that would suck. There is about a 90% chance that happens thanks to LaNina. We are probably getting our coldest weather of this fall and winter right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, jshetley said: There is about a 90% chance that happens thanks to LaNina. We are probably getting our coldest weather of this fall and winter right now. My guess would be 30-40% chance. If we were in a mod/strong nina I would agree but we are as neutral right now as you can be. I really think/hope once we get into Jan we see the SER weaken. Though, I am knocking on as much wood as I can right now as I type this. You have to give it to the CFS as it had progged Dec to have the cold dumped in the west and warm in the SE and even the east. Though, it may be on the NE as that looks like it should be BN. I think Jan will need some help from the strat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Forgive my ignorance but what/where are CAD areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Analogs are a mix of nino's/nina's/neutrals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Classic nina pattern taking hold, until we get into a pattern with sustained blocking odds are low for any snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Analogs are a mix of nino's/nina's/neutrals. Yeah a real typical pattern. The case is closed, shut out, nada as of December 9... We can just all agree winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Unfortunately, the pattern seems to strongly favor a significant and recurring SER. Until we see that feature stop showing up on these various model runs, you can safely conclude that any real cold pattern will be transient in the SE. The Midwest and northern tier should benefit though. We need to hope that plenty of snow and cold builds across the north through December so that we can make use of it if the pattern eventually changes later in the winter.thing is though the SER idea has really only been present over the last 24 hours. up until yesterday it was hit or miss on op runs. Thing is the we are getting different ideas for the pacific pattern every single run. the 18z gfs pacific pattern was a disaster therfore torched the country . I'm not sold on a lasting SER until we see how the pacific plays put Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 hours ago, Queencitywx said: Asheville is not a favored CAD area. Asheville, Hendersonville and Brevard all do good with wedges. It's areas north, west and NW that seem to not do good with CAD. Winter Storm Jonas was a prime example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah a real typical pattern. The case is closed, shut out, nada as of December 9... We can just all agree winter is over. I'm relying on my deductive reasoning skills and saying that is sarcasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, tramadoc said: I'm relying on my deductive reasoning skills and saying that is sarcasm. Lol absolutely ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 14 minutes ago, FLO said: Forgive my ignorance but what/where are CAD areas? Areas on the lee side of the Apps, where cold air get's dammed up against the Appalachians and cannot escape. It forms a wedge so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Lol absolutely ! I'm not losing my touch. Being married has fine tuned my acknowledgement of sarcasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 27 minutes ago, jshetley said: If we don't have winter weather by Jan 10 we won't get any at all. Speak for your BY. We got 1 winter storm last year, during a torch winter and it was during the 3rd week of Janurary. We ended up with 14" of snow in my yard. Your pickings may be slim to none, and they are every winter in SC, but all it's going to take is one instance where it all comes together. There no sense in these doomcasts for winter, on December the 9th. Last year's storm didn't show up until 15th on the models, forecast for the 20th IIRC. We'll have our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: I'm starting to think that the models have absolutely no idea what will happen anywhere past 5 days. That's nothing new. LOL. That was winter 2015-2016 in a nutshell as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Why is it that when we have a low in the GOA, that sucks for us and when we have a ridge there, that sucks for us too? That sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 12 hours out can be a stretch for the models when it comes to nailing winter storms around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 56 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Unfortunately, the pattern seems to strongly favor a significant and recurring SER. Until we see that feature stop showing up on these various model runs, you can safely conclude that any real cold pattern will be transient in the SE. The Midwest and northern tier should benefit though. We need to hope that plenty of snow and cold builds across the north through December so that we can make use of it if the pattern eventually changes later in the winter. We now looking at backloaded winter again? Fab Feb!? Marvelous March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Why is it that when we have a low in the GOA, that sucks for us and when we have a ridge there, that sucks for us too? That sucks. 2 words : Bath Tub! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 00z gfs para is much different at H5 vs the gfs. far more aggressive Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 And by the way, models vary a lot beyond 5 days. That's very typical. Every year we watch this happen and wonder why the models are flipping and flopping in the LR. Every year. Thats not what bothers me. We've been in a pretty persistent state of above normal temps and below normal precipitation (generally) in the SE for months. Now, maybe that's starting to change, but until we start to build some evidence of it over a period of time, I'm going to give persistence the nod in favor of typical model oscillations that might periodically point to a cold and wet pattern in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: We now looking at backloaded winter again? Fab Feb!? Marvelous March? When do we not?! Pretty soon "backloaded" is going to mean "next winter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: When do we not?! Pretty soon "backloaded" is going to mean "next winter". LOL....The hostile Atlantic for the last 5-6 years has really gotten old and that looks to continue. This is the first winter that I am enjoying whatever weather we get...cold/rain/warmth. Knowing that we have unfavorable Atlantic again anything we do get will be our typical pingers...meh. Cold feels good today, the 60F's next week will be nice too. I would be happy with that this winter, wild swings in temps with some rains in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 11 minutes ago, Stormcatt said: 00z gfs para is much different at H5 vs the gfs. far more aggressive Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Folks would be better served ten-fold to use the para gfs which runs twice daily on TT website. Way better accuracy the futher out in time you go compared to gfs 4x daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 11 minutes ago, Stormcatt said: 00z gfs para is much different at H5 vs the gfs. far more aggressive Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk JB was mentioning yesterday that the para was much more realistic and in line with Euro. Maybe there's hope for the GFS yet? Does anyone know when the Para becomes the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 57 minutes ago, jshetley said: There is about a 90% chance that happens thanks to LaNina. We are probably getting our coldest weather of this fall and winter right now. There is no La Nina, or its on life suport I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 JB was mentioning yesterday that the para was much more realistic and in line with Euro. Maybe there's hope for the GFS yet? Does anyone know when the Para becomes the op? not sure, I do know the gfs is being replaced all together in 2019Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Don't they have a new para GFS every year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 18 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: We've been in a pretty persistent state of above normal temps and below normal precipitation (generally) in the SE for months. Now, maybe that's starting to change I think it's pretty evident that it's beginning to change just based on the the weather we're having, and the models are having a helluva time picking up on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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