packfan98 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 So were the 18z GEFS as juicy as the 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Interesting trend on the EPS with a building -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, packfan98 said: So were the 18z GEFS as juicy as the 12z? Not really....hard to get excited with the SER showing up in the short/med range. But the similarities to what we are seeing and what is being progged mimics solid analogs 83/84/13 is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Pack, are your referring to 83/84/13 Dec or Jan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 20 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Pack, are your referring to 83/84/13 Dec or Jan? Yep...so Dec 83/84/2013 has some similarities to how this Dec is evolving. Then I plotted temps for Jan-Mar 84/85/14 showing how cold it was. Below is H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Yep...so Dec 83/84/2013 has some similarities to how this Dec is evolving. Then I plotted temps for Jan-Mar 84/85/14 showing how cold it was. Below is H5. Yeah I remember that winter of 84/85. The coldest I ever had. I was living near Swansboro NC at the time and it was 5 degrees on Christmas morning. Not much snow though. Just extremely cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Agreed 83, 85 and 13 were good for Jan/Feb snowwise in my neck of the woods. Not so much for Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Stupid JMA is BLOW TORCHING the whole country weeks 3 and 4 #ugly Has JB rattled. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Stupid JMA is BLOW TORCHING the whole country weeks 3 and 4 #ugly Has JB rattled. lol I'm more worried about the SER. I don't like where we are for a widespread SE event. We do appear to be moving in the right direction, however. This pattern also looks nothing like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, LithiaWx said: I'm more worried about the SER. I don't like where we are for a widespread SE event. We do appear to be moving in the right direction though and this pattern looks nothing like last year. True, Surely it can't be a repeat or worse than last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: True, Surely it can't be a repeat or worse than last year? We have nowhere to go but up after that debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 6 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: We have nowhere to go but up after that debacle. Last year was a heck of a lot better than the winter before that in Carrollton. At least we had a light dusting last winter ! 2014-15 was the worst winter I've ever experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 10 hours ago, NCSNOW said: He's forgotten more about science then most of us on here put together know. Hyperbole? NE and MA sensitivity I'll give you. That slosh theory does have science behind it and if you ever heard it explained makes sense. But its a theory just like cohens theories and several others out there. Not a absoloute I don't doubt he's a very smart guy. His hyperbole is just so bad it overshadows his talents IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 0Z GFS coming up with some nasty ice at 204. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthGaWinter Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 14 minutes ago, cg2916 said: 0Z GFS coming up with some nasty ice at 204. Quickly to rain... HP goes offshore quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 0z GFS has 6.74" of liquid in the long range for KAVL. That would not be good, to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 On the 00z GFS towards the end of the run right around Christmas Eve, a low develops pretty deep in the gulf. Perfect track for a classic Miller A snowstorm in the South. Unfortunately ,it looks like there is a SE ridge though which is preventing the cold air to drop faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 EURO was a pretty nasty ice storm for VA and northern NC CAD areas from 204hr-222hr. Favored CAD areas stay below freezing for the duration of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 hours ago, NorthGaWinter said: Quickly to rain... HP goes offshore quick You must be new here? A wedge being shown that strongly, that far out, does not just go away! I think between now and Christmas , somebody in the CAD areas, get a mod/severe ice event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: You must be new here? A wedge being shown that strongly, that far out, does not just go away! I think between now and Christmas , somebody in the CAD areas, get a mod/severe ice event! Yep, that's the one positive we have in the SE; that CADs tend to over perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 hours ago, Jonathan said: EURO was a pretty nasty ice storm for VA and northern NC CAD areas from 204hr-222hr. Favored CAD areas stay below freezing for the duration of the event. AVL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 minutes ago, AshevilleCityWx said: AVL? Asheville is not a favored CAD area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 hours ago, LovingGulfLows said: On the 00z GFS towards the end of the run right around Christmas Eve, a low develops pretty deep in the gulf. Perfect track for a classic Miller A snowstorm in the South. Unfortunately ,it looks like there is a SE ridge though which is preventing the cold air to drop faster. Meanwhile 6z GFS has us all in shorts and t-shirts for Xmas. Now which one will be correct. My money is on 6z. Because going with the warmer more miserable solution for winter is always best bet regardless of being in SE or MA. I will say the GEFS looks better/colder which some will say is best to look at in this range but these frequent bad Op runs are making me think December to Remember will be confined to Midwest/West. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 6z gfs a total train wreck. From lows tracking south through Florida to cutters and springtime Christmas....unreal how different the same model is from run to run. Not just for one system but for the entire 300 hrs. The only thing that looks reasonably close to the same is the next 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 7 minutes ago, oconeexman said: 6z gfs a total train wreck. From lows tracking south through Florida to cutters and springtime Christmas....unreal how different the same model is from run to run. Not just for one system but for the entire 300 hrs. The only thing that looks reasonably close to the same is the next 84hrs. Which is how it is every winter. With several shots of cold coming, a solution that shows a warmer Christmas with another surge of cold near new years wouldn't surprise me as being the way models lean toward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Which is how it is every winter. With several shots of cold coming, a solution that shows a warmer Christmas with another surge of cold near new years wouldn't surprise me as being the way models lean toward. Id bet the house that when I check back at lunch the 12z will be drastically different than the 6z which is frustrating to me. So look no further than 5 days out would make the most sense I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I am getting more intrigued by the time frame next weekend. As already noted the 0Z euro last night verbatim shows some wintry weather in CAD favored areas. Even the "disastrous" 6Z GFS at the same time period has no storm, but look at the low it happens to pop in the Atlantic, too suppressed to do anything, but that would be exactly where I would want this model to be this far out in time. Of course, long way to go here, but will be paying close attention to this time frame. Lots of factors such as vort spacing, how far south the arctic front presses, etc., will determine outcome, which may take several days for models to work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I might add this will be the first time we will have a good cold antecedent air mass in place which is almost always a requirement here for wintry, plus the ensembles have been honking a good pattern during this time for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Unfortunately, the pattern seems to strongly favor a significant and recurring SER. Until we see that feature stop showing up on these various model runs, you can safely conclude that any real cold pattern will be transient in the SE. The Midwest and northern tier should benefit though. We need to hope that plenty of snow and cold builds across the north through December so that we can make use of it if the pattern eventually changes later in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Unfortunately, the pattern seems to strongly favor a significant and recurring SER. Until we see that feature stop showing up on these various model runs, you can safely conclude that any real cold pattern will be transient in the SE. The Midwest and northern tier should benefit though. We need to hope that plenty of snow and cold builds across the north through December so that we can make use of it if the pattern eventually changes later in the winter. Agree...the similarities in Dec 13th strat too. Once Jan 2014 started though we got a favorable strat configuration to dump cold in the east. Probably going to need the same. If we get early/mid Jan with a stout SER that would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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