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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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11 minutes ago, packbacker said:

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Good grief...biggest snow mean yet.  Pretty much every member has potential.

I would think that the I-40 corridor would have about a 5% chance at a white Christmas this year based on the pattern.  I am curious as to which system the ensembles are going bonkers on?  Or is it snow on snow?

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That's a stout SE ridge on the Euro. I've seen that ridge be very resilient and hold off eastward progression of the trough so long that the cold modifies before it ever gets east. Not looking good for anything but warm and some scattered rain showers in the Atlanta area. Big change from the GFS. The GFS's cold, warm, rain seems more seasonal, though.

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10 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Did you recently move from Marion to Danville ? I wonder how winters in Danville will be compared to Marion ?

Yea, I moved about 14 months ago. Winters seem to be very similar even though I'm only at about 650 ft here and 1250 ft in Marion. We get more snow from the northern stream here in Danville, im just far enough north to get dustings or more out of clippers more so than in the lee of the Apps in Marion. Temperature wise the nights arent as cold here but wedges hold stronger and longer here due to being further north. Last winter overall Marion had about 13 inches of snow about all from the January storm and here in Danville we had 3-4 events including- 8 inches of snow and sleet in Jan, 2 inches of snow in Feb, and a couple .5 to 1.5 small events so snow totals were very similar. 

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Good news on the EPS it keeps the -EPO which tries to build to Scand. but the -PNA/+NAO combo isn't great for us.  This is going to be snow blitz for the upper plains to the NE...with the MA in play too.  If we can get a pac ridge spike the trough would push SE and we would be in play.  Hopefully into January we can repeat this pattern with a +PNA as I don't have much hope for atlantic blocking. 

Screen Shot 2016-12-08 at 4.29.59 PM.png

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Hopefully his is the correct thread in which to ask this question.

Very simply, we all see the models and even though they are divergent in respects, a semi-constant seems to be a stout SE ridge.

Given all the current players on the field in their current state(s) (AO/NAO/PNA/WPO etc., etc.), i) what change or combination of changes would be best to knock that ridge down, and ii) given the current set-up, which is conceivably the most possible (not likely or probable, but merely possible) change to occur, if any?

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1 hour ago, packbacker said:

Good news on the EPS it keeps the -EPO which tries to build to Scand. but the -PNA/+NAO combo isn't great for us.  This is going to be snow blitz for the upper plains to the NE...with the MA in play too.  If we can get a pac ridge spike the trough would push SE and we would be in play.  Hopefully into January we can repeat this pattern with a +PNA as I don't have much hope for atlantic blocking. 

Screen Shot 2016-12-08 at 4.29.59 PM.png

Pattern looks similar to Dec 84, 13....we know what happened starting in those Jan's 

 

IMG_3352.PNG

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