Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Panel 14 doesn't look half bad for NC. Is that 2 feet for northern NC ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 9 minutes ago, packbacker said: Last post... Good grief...biggest snow mean yet. Pretty much every member has potential. That's pretty hard to believe with the GEFS also pumping the SER like it is in the long range. Maybe for the MW and NE but I don't know about the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 11 minutes ago, packbacker said: Last post... Good grief...biggest snow mean yet. Pretty much every member has potential. I would think that the I-40 corridor would have about a 5% chance at a white Christmas this year based on the pattern. I am curious as to which system the ensembles are going bonkers on? Or is it snow on snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, packfan98 said: I would think that the I-40 corridor would have about a 5% chance at a white Christmas this year based on the pattern. I am curious as to which system the ensembles are going bonkers on? Or is it snow on snow? Right. Total snowfall for the next 16 days from any and all systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 16 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Panel 14 doesn't look half bad for NC. Is that 2 feet for northern NC ? I think #9 would make most on this board happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 big difference on the 12z euro vs the 12z gfs with the PV placement Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 12 minutes ago, Stormcatt said: big difference on the 12z euro vs the 12z gfs with the PV placement Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk still moving south??...im at work and can not check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boknows34 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 59 minutes ago, Stormcatt said: I've scored many times in the last 4 years with a mega -epo and no pna Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Hope you're right, Stormcatt...I'm on the NE side of the "Ham"...Been a while since I've even seen a flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, TiltedStorm said: still moving south??...im at work and can not check. North of GFS pv placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Day 9 Euro showing stout -EPO try to to Scandinavian ridge. Just need trough to swing east and ridge to build. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 6 minutes ago, Boknows34 said: Hope you're right, Stormcatt...I'm on the NE side of the "Ham"...Been a while since I've even seen a flake I only saw one decent winter event in West Georgia from 2011-2016 ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 That's a stout SE ridge on the Euro. I've seen that ridge be very resilient and hold off eastward progression of the trough so long that the cold modifies before it ever gets east. Not looking good for anything but warm and some scattered rain showers in the Atlanta area. Big change from the GFS. The GFS's cold, warm, rain seems more seasonal, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Difference might be the GFS takes the MJO into phase 8 while the Euro wants phase 6/7.Phase 8 translates to more Eastern US trough,6/7 not as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherfan2 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 So that's why the GFS is colder and wetter than the Euro. 3 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Difference might be the GFS takes the MJO into phase 8 while the Euro wants phase 6/7.Phase 8 translates to more Eastern US trough,6/7 not as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 3 minutes ago, Weatherfan2 said: So that's why the GFS is colder and wetter than the Euro. Partly,in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherfan2 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 The 12Z GFS still has that 288 hour storm. 6Z had it this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 not gonna be many fans of the 12z eps 12z epsSent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherfan2 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I am not a fan of the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 EPS doesn't look too bad to me ( I'll be spending a good bit of time up north the next few weeks). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Its not that bad. Cold air is just at our doorstep and close enough that a wintry threat isnt out of the question during the next few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Its not that bad. Cold air is just at our doorstep and close enough that a wintry threat isnt out of the question during the next few weeks Did you recently move from Marion to Danville ? I wonder how winters in Danville will be compared to Marion ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 10 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Did you recently move from Marion to Danville ? I wonder how winters in Danville will be compared to Marion ? Yea, I moved about 14 months ago. Winters seem to be very similar even though I'm only at about 650 ft here and 1250 ft in Marion. We get more snow from the northern stream here in Danville, im just far enough north to get dustings or more out of clippers more so than in the lee of the Apps in Marion. Temperature wise the nights arent as cold here but wedges hold stronger and longer here due to being further north. Last winter overall Marion had about 13 inches of snow about all from the January storm and here in Danville we had 3-4 events including- 8 inches of snow and sleet in Jan, 2 inches of snow in Feb, and a couple .5 to 1.5 small events so snow totals were very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Looks good to me, especially because it'll be different in 6 hours, and not that bad anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Looks good to me, especially because it'll be different in 6 hours, and not that bad anywayIt actually got better days 8-12 . so all in all not bad Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Good news on the EPS it keeps the -EPO which tries to build to Scand. but the -PNA/+NAO combo isn't great for us. This is going to be snow blitz for the upper plains to the NE...with the MA in play too. If we can get a pac ridge spike the trough would push SE and we would be in play. Hopefully into January we can repeat this pattern with a +PNA as I don't have much hope for atlantic blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Hopefully his is the correct thread in which to ask this question. Very simply, we all see the models and even though they are divergent in respects, a semi-constant seems to be a stout SE ridge. Given all the current players on the field in their current state(s) (AO/NAO/PNA/WPO etc., etc.), i) what change or combination of changes would be best to knock that ridge down, and ii) given the current set-up, which is conceivably the most possible (not likely or probable, but merely possible) change to occur, if any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 18z GFS @ 210 has 1038 High over Eastern PA sliding OTS (of course) with decent wedge in place. Some Icy precip moving into SC and approaching NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 hour ago, packbacker said: Good news on the EPS it keeps the -EPO which tries to build to Scand. but the -PNA/+NAO combo isn't great for us. This is going to be snow blitz for the upper plains to the NE...with the MA in play too. If we can get a pac ridge spike the trough would push SE and we would be in play. Hopefully into January we can repeat this pattern with a +PNA as I don't have much hope for atlantic blocking. Pattern looks similar to Dec 84, 13....we know what happened starting in those Jan's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Increased snowfall in the Carolinas and NE GA. A lot of that would be mixed with ice, sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I think we should start talking more about the storm on 17-18. GFS brought it back over the western Carolinas. ICE it's been suggesting a storm on that time frame the past three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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