NCSNOW Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 12 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I'm a little interested in the system Sunday night. Most models and forecast currently have the temps just above freezing when precip moves in, but we'll be dealing with very cold/dry air which models tend to have difficultly moving out. Theres a wetbulb tab on the nam for each 3hour frame if you have access. I'm with you on looking at DPS at the same time frame, but that wetbulb tab will give you a clue how close or far away youd be from anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 30 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Dude is such a disgrace to science. He's forgotten more about science then most of us on here put together know. Hyperbole? NE and MA sensitivity I'll give you. That slosh theory does have science behind it and if you ever heard it explained makes sense. But its a theory just like cohens theories and several others out there. Not a absoloute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 9 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Theres a wetbulb tab on the nam for each 3hour frame if you have access. I'm with you on looking at DPS at the same time frame, but that wetbulb tab will give you a clue how close or far away youd be from anything. Most definitely wetbulb is the reading to look at, but I'm looking at this with the interest that the air will be ultimately colder and dryer (..and then lower wetbulb). But as stated before not expecting much; maybe we get an initial sleet shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 GFS looking 2013'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 12Z GFS got some serious cold, keeps the upper Midwest -15 to -40 for several days.....much colder than last run with this air mass over the upper midwest...looks to get all of the US so that will be the third solid cold shot, eventually somewhere in the SE will luck into a decent winter event........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 GFS looking 2013'ish I think we would all take this after the December we had last yearSent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Wow @ the number of southern systems on the 12z GFS that at least have potential. 12/14-15 12/17-18 12/19-20 12/23 That's a pretty stacked run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Wow @ the number of southern systems on the 12z GFS that at least have potential. 12/14-15 12/17-18 12/19-20 12/23 That's a pretty stacked run lol. Looks like rain for most of NC, though, but guess that could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Looks like rain for most of NC, though, but guess that could change. Can and will lol. But it's nice to at least see cold pulses flying and storm systems flying with it. Just gotta take our chances that one links up with the other. This time last winter we were in the 70s with a bigtime winter forecasted by most, wondering what we done to deserve such a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 hour ago, Jon said: Probably not. I think their standards for a white Christmas is so stupid. I believe you have to get at least 1" of snow on Christmas day for it to be considered a white Christmas ? so if you get 3/4" of snow on Christmas it's not considered a white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Yeah, the number of shots and threats showing up after the 15th are great to see. Never a guarantee with winter storms here, but it's like the difference in Curry with the ball to take a last second three to win the game versus me. He might still miss, but a much better chance of him hitting it than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 19 minutes ago, Stormcatt said: I think we would all take this after the December we had last year Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk It's the Op but yeah...good to see the GFS with a EPO on roids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Again...day 16 GFS op, but better with the strat...FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 cold air is in place....need a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: It's the Op but yeah...good to see the GFS with a EPO on roids. Alright, this is me trying to learn, Pack. Obviously, there's a MEGA SER depicted on that map with a massive cold dump/trof in the west and a +NAO. Isn't that a terrible look? What is it that you're looking at that can get that bad boy over to our side of the country? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 We just need to lock the cold air in for like a week. Surely we wouldn't be cold and dry for an entire week ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 hours ago, LithiaWx said: Is the slosh theory found in any peer reviewed literature or is this just a JB thing? Does Twitter count? I'm sure some peers -- both the British and the normal kinds -- occasionally glance at Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: Alright, this is me trying to learn, Pack. Obviously, there's a MEGA SER depicted on that map with a massive cold dump/trof in the west and a +NAO. Isn't that a terrible look? What is it that you're looking at that can get that bad boy over to our side of the country? Time is probably biggest thing...I hope/think the SER weakens as we get into winter. Easy fix is a -NAO or well placed ridge in the west. I just hope we can keep the -EPO going or its furnace for alot of folks, not just us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Even with the GEFS showing a SER we aren't that warm. Look at how warm the artic is, ridging building over the top. This isn't a great snow pattern for us but still something positive as we get into January maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Alright, so we've seen an -EPO dominate winters before with no Atlantic blocking...so is it the PNA being the real thorn in our side? Because the -EPO obviously isn't quite enough to pop a ride on the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: Even with the GEFS showing a SER we aren't that warm. Look at how warm the artic is, ridging building over the top. This isn't a great snow pattern for us but still something positive as we get into January maybe. You say we aren't that warm but don't all those oranges and reds covering most of the South indicate warmth ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Alright, so we've seen an -EPO dominate winters before with no Atlantic blocking...so is it the PNA being the real thorn in our side? Because the -EPO obviously isn't quite enough to pop a ride on the west coast.I've scored many times in the last 4 years with a mega -epo and no pna Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 3 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: You say we aren't that warm but don't all those oranges and reds covering most of the South indicate warmth ? Yep...but you see the cold on our doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Even with the GEFS showing a SER we aren't that warm. Look at how warm the artic is, ridging building over the top. This isn't a great snow pattern for us but still something positive as we get into January maybe.agree, there is a huge misconception that higher heights automatically means warmer temps and thats not the case at all Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I was talking moreso about overall pattern, not just temps. Just being cold doesn't bring home the bacon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 12 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Alright, so we've seen an -EPO dominate winters before with no Atlantic blocking...so is it the PNA being the real thorn in our side? Because the -EPO obviously isn't quite enough to pop a ride on the west coast. Correct...we can't have both a -PNA and +NAO as that equals SER. Though I would be curious to see if the ridging over the top (-AO'ish/-EPO) could force trough far enough SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Last post... Good grief...biggest snow mean yet. Pretty much every member has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Last post... Good grief...biggest snow mean yet. Pretty much every member has potential. Panel 1 is crazy, but for NC panel 9 looks like a winner for just about everyone in the state.....on of these days something like that will verify lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Last post... Good grief...biggest snow mean yet. Pretty much every member has potential. E1 and E9, is all I want for Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Wow, 9 and 14 please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.