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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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12 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I'm a little interested in the system Sunday night. Most models and forecast currently have the temps just above freezing when precip moves in, but we'll be dealing with very cold/dry air which models tend to have difficultly moving out.  

Theres a wetbulb tab on the nam for each 3hour frame if you have access. I'm with you on looking at DPS at the same time frame, but that wetbulb tab will give you a clue how close or far away youd be from anything.

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30 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Dude is such a disgrace to science.  

He's forgotten more about science then most of us on here put together know. Hyperbole? NE and MA sensitivity I'll give you. That slosh theory does have science behind it and if you ever heard it explained makes sense. But its a theory just like cohens theories and several others out there. Not a absoloute 

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9 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Theres a wetbulb tab on the nam for each 3hour frame if you have access. I'm with you on looking at DPS at the same time frame, but that wetbulb tab will give you a clue how close or far away youd be from anything.

Most definitely wetbulb is the reading to look at, but I'm looking at this with the interest that the air will be ultimately colder and dryer (..and then lower wetbulb). But as stated before not expecting much; maybe we get an initial sleet shower.    

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12Z GFS got some serious cold, keeps the upper Midwest -15 to -40 for several days.....much colder than last run with this air mass over the upper midwest...looks to get all of the US so that will be the third solid cold shot, eventually somewhere in the SE will luck into a decent winter event........

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6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks like rain for most of NC, though, but guess that could change.

Can and will lol. But it's nice to at least see cold pulses flying and storm systems flying with it. Just gotta take our chances that one links up with the other.

This time last winter we were in the 70s with a bigtime winter forecasted by most, wondering what we done to deserve such a thing. :lol: 

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5 minutes ago, packbacker said:

It's the Op but yeah...good to see the GFS with a EPO on roids.

Alright, this is me trying to learn, Pack. Obviously, there's a MEGA SER depicted on that map with a massive cold dump/trof in the west and a +NAO. Isn't that a terrible look? What is it that you're looking at that can get that bad boy over to our side of the country?

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1 minute ago, Jonathan said:

Alright, this is me trying to learn, Pack. Obviously, there's a MEGA SER depicted on that map with a massive cold dump/trof in the west and a +NAO. Isn't that a terrible look? What is it that you're looking at that can get that bad boy over to our side of the country?

Time is probably biggest thing...I hope/think the SER weakens as we get into winter.  Easy fix is a -NAO or well placed ridge in the west.  

I just hope we can keep the -EPO going or its furnace for alot of folks, not just us.

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5 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Even with the GEFS showing a SER we aren't that warm.  Look at how warm the artic is, ridging building over the top.

This isn't a great snow pattern for us but still something positive as we get into January maybe.

Screen Shot 2016-12-08 at 12.38.56 PM.png

Screen Shot 2016-12-08 at 12.38.13 PM.png

You say we aren't that warm but don't all those oranges and reds covering most of the South indicate warmth ?

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Alright, so we've seen an -EPO dominate winters before with no Atlantic blocking...so is it the PNA being the real thorn in our side? Because the -EPO obviously isn't quite enough to pop a ride on the west coast.


I've scored many times in the last 4 years with a mega -epo and no pna

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Even with the GEFS showing a SER we aren't that warm.  Look at how warm the artic is, ridging building over the top.

This isn't a great snow pattern for us but still something positive as we get into January maybe.

Screen Shot 2016-12-08 at 12.38.56 PM.png

Screen Shot 2016-12-08 at 12.38.13 PM.png

agree, there is a huge misconception that higher heights automatically means warmer temps and thats not the case at all

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12 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Alright, so we've seen an -EPO dominate winters before with no Atlantic blocking...so is it the PNA being the real thorn in our side? Because the -EPO obviously isn't quite enough to pop a ride on the west coast.

Correct...we can't have both a -PNA and +NAO as that equals SER.  Though I would be curious to see if the ridging over the top (-AO'ish/-EPO) could force trough far enough SE.  

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