Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 13 minutes ago, Shawn said: The 12z GEFS individual members aren't even bad through Day 12 for much of the Southeast. The chances are really on the table for various solutions. Quite a few have substantial Winter storms as far South as Southern Georgia. Looks like 18 of them have something frozen here, with some good totals for a few of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boknows34 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 I just wish the models would make up their mind...They're as bad as a woman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 12z euro is dry and cold mid week next week. no gfs system in sight Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, Stormcatt said: 12z euro is dry and cold mid week next week. no gfs system in sight Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Need the cold first, so atleast we have that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Need the cold first, so atleast we have that But the question is will the cold stay ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: But the question is will the cold stay ? No, things look cool and transient in the long range save for a quick shot of real cold here and there. Wake me up when (September) December ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 It's a quality cold shot on the Euro. Dewpoints here at day 8 in the single digits to minus teens. That could be tough to scour out quickly with precip approaching from the west, even with a high retreating off the coast. Question is, where do the models trend going forward? The argument for the models to trend south and colder is typically reserved for cases where there is good downstream blocking. In absence of that, the models tend to trend north and warmer. A counter to that could be the idea that this is cross polar flow, and will the models resolve that properly in time? I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, griteater said: It's a quality cold shot on the Euro. Dewpoints here at day 8 in the single digits to minus teens. That could be tough to scour out quickly with precip approaching from the west, even with a high retreating off the coast. Question is, where do the models trend going forward? The argument for the models to trend south and colder is typically reserved for cases where there is good downstream blocking. In absence of that, the models tend to trend north and warmer. A counter to that could be the idea that this is cross polar flow, and will the models resolve that properly in time? I don't know. Every time people tell me the cold will get scoured out quickly, I remember 12/2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Better yet, how about just sleeping all winter since it's going to be a disappointment anyway. Let the rest of us chase the dream. Sometimes folks around here are in pipe dreams. Keep smoking it, seems like some good **** with the delusions some have. One good snow of 2-4" is all I want. It's not aksing that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Just now, LithiaWx said: Sometimes folks around here are in pipe dreams. Keep smoking it, seems like some good **** with the delusions some have. One good snow of 2-4" is all I want. It's not aksing that much. True, but this is how things work here. We're miserable in the present, the models throw a bone, people get excited, models lose the bone, then everyone's back to being miserable. Just gotta let it flow. There's been some great discussion in this thread the past few days. We all know winter will turn out to be awful, but we might as well sprinkle some false happiness every now and then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
accu35 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Lol I love seeing ppl on here sweat about a winter storm or cold. This month is way better than last year so thats a plus. Plus signs are good for cold in Dec and Jan, Feb hasn't came yet. Look for swings in models until we get closer to time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 15 minutes ago, accu35 said: Lol I love seeing ppl on here sweat about a winter storm or cold. This month is way better than last year so thats a plus. Plus signs are good for cold in Dec and Jan, Feb hasn't came yet. Look for swings in models until we get closer to time no kidding. it is the south. it is december 7th. just having something to track inside 200hrs is a win at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 56 minutes ago, Jonathan said: True, but this is how things work here. We're miserable in the present, the models throw a bone, people get excited, models lose the bone, then everyone's back to being miserable. Just gotta let it flow. There's been some great discussion in this thread the past few days. We all know winter will turn out to be awful, but we might as well sprinkle some false happiness every now and then! You live in freaking Virginia. You don't know what an awful winter is ! You're in the mid-atlantic so you probably get a decent snowfall every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 54 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Sometimes folks around here are in pipe dreams. Keep smoking it, seems like some good **** with the delusions some have. One good snow of 2-4" is all I want. It's not aksing that much. You must be talking about the folks down there where you live. As for MBY, we have snow every winter. It's more about tracking the first winter event. Why must you always try to put people down? Give it a rest.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Cleanup is needed in this Discussion thread! Can you folks who want to whine and complain, or attempt to be funny by inserting your witty one-liners with no substance, please go to the banter thread? Thanks! If you need a part-time moderator, let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 EPS didn't change much...still snow options on the table for day 9-12. The day 7-8 overrunning get's squashed as the PV is dropping so far south. Looking at the members day 13 you have roughly 8 that show a warmup and 16 that show still BN temps. To lazy to count the 2nd half of the members but would guess they are roughly the same. Long story short...this looks like maybe we have a few cold days, then a few warm days then a few cold days...with rain in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
accu35 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 I got it, how about those who has a negative input on how winter will suck then let your back yard burn and mine redeem it self with a full blown winter storm. Be thankful signs are good for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 18z GFS very ho-hum. Northern tier of the U.S. continues to get plastered, the rest of us get cold-warm-rain in that order twice through two weeks. Canada stays cold. Don't worry though, 0z will bring the goodies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 5 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: 1 hour ago, Jonathan said: 18z GFS very ho-hum. Northern tier of the U.S. continues to get plastered, the rest of us get cold-warm-rain in that order twice through two weeks. Canada stays cold. Don't worry though, 0z will bring the goodies! Transient unfortunately. Only those in the far northern SE will have a real good shot on this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 3 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: You must be talking about the folks down there where you live. As for MBY, we have snow every winter. It's more about tracking the first winter event. Why must you always try to put people down? Give it a rest.... Nobody is putting anyone down. This is a classic case of not being able to tolerate a point of view that isn't roses. You don't live that far from me and our weather isn't hat different. You live in the SE like me. Hickory gets more snow but that doesn't change what the pattern looks like. If you and anyone else wants to believe this will get it done more power bro but I would like a lot more in our favor for both of us. I don't see hickory getting much out of his pattern. We are both too far south to get in on it. JMO, your mileage may vary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 7 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: Didn't everyone talk about how terrible the 18z GFS was a few days ago when it gave us a weenie run? If the 18z is so terrible, why is everyone cliff jumping because this 18z didn't give us any winter weather? You may know this but it's been proven a few times by mets that the 6z and 18z runs are just as accurate as the 0 and 12z. It's statistics and they are what they are. I agree though, your point still stands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I think the CMC is still onboard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I think some people are just on edge because for SOME it's been nearly 3 years since there's been any snow ( including myself). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 6 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I think some people are just on edge because for SOME it's been nearly 3 years since there's been any snow ( including myself). Yeah, there has only been a few dustings in and around Metro Atlanta for a few years now. you will have a better chance up in Dahlonega, GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 GFS going all blue norther on us. 73 degrees in Shreveport and 5 degrees at Dodge City, Kansas next Tues aftn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Most widespread arctic blast I've seen on any of the runs thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 hour ago, Eastatlwx said: Yeah, there has only been a few dustings in and around Metro Atlanta for a few years now. you will have a better chance up in Dahlonega, GA. Living along the I-20 corridor in winter is pure torture for a snow lover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Now that's a big boy arctic blast on the GFS...could be some mischief down the line this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 We should see some sort of winter storm break out here soon on the run...shortwave in the 4 corners area at hr204 with a good load of cold air out ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 6 minutes ago, griteater said: Now that's a big boy arctic blast on the GFS...could be some mischief down the line this time Yep gets 850 below 0 all the way to GOM almost, can't see past180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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