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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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13 minutes ago, Shawn said:

The 12z GEFS individual members aren't even bad through Day 12 for much of the Southeast.  The chances are really on the table for various solutions.  Quite a few have substantial Winter storms as far South as Southern Georgia.

Looks like 18 of them have something frozen here, with some good totals for a few of them. 

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It's a quality cold shot on the Euro.  Dewpoints here at day 8 in the single digits to minus teens.  That could be tough to scour out quickly with precip approaching from the west, even with a high retreating off the coast.

Question is, where do the models trend going forward?  The argument for the models to trend south and colder is typically reserved for cases where there is good downstream blocking.  In absence of that, the models tend to trend north and warmer.  A counter to that could be the idea that this is cross polar flow, and will the models resolve that properly in time?  I don't know.

2lwaq9g.gif

 

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

It's a quality cold shot on the Euro.  Dewpoints here at day 8 in the single digits to minus teens.  That could be tough to scour out quickly with precip approaching from the west, even with a high retreating off the coast.

Question is, where do the models trend going forward?  The argument for the models to trend south and colder is typically reserved for cases where there is good downstream blocking.  In absence of that, the models tend to trend north and warmer.  A counter to that could be the idea that this is cross polar flow, and will the models resolve that properly in time?  I don't know.

 

 

Every time people tell me the cold will get scoured out quickly, I remember 12/2005

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2 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Better yet, how about just sleeping all winter since it's going to be a disappointment anyway. Let the rest of us chase the dream.

Sometimes folks around here are in pipe dreams.  Keep smoking it, seems like some good **** with the delusions some have. 

 

One good snow of 2-4" is all I want.  It's not

aksing that much. 

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Just now, LithiaWx said:

Sometimes folks around here are in pipe dreams.  Keep smoking it, seems like some good **** with the delusions some have. 

 

One good snow of 2-4" is all I want.  It's not

aksing that much. 

True, but this is how things work here. We're miserable in the present, the models throw a bone, people get excited, models lose the bone, then everyone's back to being miserable.

Just gotta let it flow. There's been some great discussion in this thread the past few days. :) We all know winter will turn out to be awful, but we might as well sprinkle some false happiness every now and then! 

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Lol I love seeing ppl on here sweat about a winter storm or cold. This month is way better than last year so thats a plus. Plus signs are good for cold in Dec and Jan, Feb hasn't came yet. Look for swings in models until we get closer to time

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15 minutes ago, accu35 said:

Lol I love seeing ppl on here sweat about a winter storm or cold. This month is way better than last year so thats a plus. Plus signs are good for cold in Dec and Jan, Feb hasn't came yet. Look for swings in models until we get closer to time

 

no kidding.  it is the south. it is december 7th.  just having something to track inside 200hrs is a win at this stage.

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56 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

True, but this is how things work here. We're miserable in the present, the models throw a bone, people get excited, models lose the bone, then everyone's back to being miserable.

Just gotta let it flow. There's been some great discussion in this thread the past few days. :)We all know winter will turn out to be awful, but we might as well sprinkle some false happiness every now and then! 

You live in freaking Virginia. You don't know what an awful winter is ! You're in the mid-atlantic so you probably get a decent snowfall every winter.

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54 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Sometimes folks around here are in pipe dreams.  Keep smoking it, seems like some good **** with the delusions some have

 

One good snow of 2-4" is all I want.  It's not

aksing that much. 

You must be talking about the folks down there where you live. As for MBY, we have snow every winter. It's more about tracking the first winter event. Why must you always try to put people down? Give it a rest....

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EPS didn't change much...still snow options on the table for day 9-12.  The day 7-8 overrunning get's squashed as the PV is dropping so far south.  

Looking at the members day 13 you have roughly 8 that show a warmup and 16 that show still BN temps.  To lazy to count the 2nd half of the members but would guess they are roughly the same.  Long story short...this looks like maybe we have a few cold days, then a few warm days then a few cold days...with rain in between.

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5 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:
1 hour ago, Jonathan said:

18z GFS very ho-hum. Northern tier of the U.S. continues to get plastered, the rest of us get cold-warm-rain in that order twice through two weeks.

Canada stays cold.

Don't worry though, 0z will bring the goodies! 

Transient unfortunately.  Only those in the far northern SE will have a real good shot on this pattern. 

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3 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

You must be talking about the folks down there where you live. As for MBY, we have snow every winter. It's more about tracking the first winter event. Why must you always try to put people down? Give it a rest....

Nobody is putting anyone down.  This is a classic case of not being able to tolerate a point of view that isn't roses.  You don't live that far from me and our weather isn't hat different.  You live in the SE like me.  Hickory gets more snow but that doesn't change what the pattern looks like.  If you and anyone else wants to believe this will get it done more power bro but I would like a lot more in our favor for both of us.  I don't see hickory getting much out of his pattern.  We are both too far south to get in on it. 

 

JMO,  your mileage may vary. 

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7 minutes ago, SimeonNC said:

Didn't everyone talk about how terrible the 18z GFS was a few days ago when it gave us a weenie run? If the 18z is so terrible, why is everyone cliff jumping because this 18z didn't give us any winter weather?

You may know this but it's been proven a few times by mets that the 6z and 18z runs are just as accurate as the 0 and 12z.  It's statistics and they are what they are.  I agree though,  your point still stands. 

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6 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I think some people are just on edge because for SOME it's been nearly 3 years since there's been any snow ( including myself).

Yeah, there has only been a few dustings in and around Metro Atlanta for a few years now. you will have a better chance up in Dahlonega, GA.

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