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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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8 minutes ago, TiltedStorm said:

Loving the trends for the western Carolinas December 15-16 storm. Awesome CAD effect. with GFS and Canadian.

There is definitely potential around day 10. Still to far out to worry about details but here is the day 10 setup from 6z GFS.  **after this the storm pushes westward but a strong CAD is still able to provide the western Carolinas a significant event. But again that's too much details at this range.

 

12-7-2016 8-10-36 AM.jpg

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2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

There is definitely potential around day 10. Still to far out to worry about details but here is the day 10 setup from 6z GFS.  **after this the storm pushes westward but a strong CAD is still able to provide the western Carolinas a significant event. But again that's too much details at this range.

 

12-7-2016 8-10-36 AM.jpg

 

im keeping my eye on that High pressure system over eastern Canada...Has to hold up

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2 hours ago, downeastnc said:

8 days now......still think its a long shot, would probably be a touch to warm at the surface to pull off any real accumulations but its close....

gfs snow.png

 

Just seeing some snow fall would be a big win at this point. Snow chances by the middle of December is a good sign. A lot better than last winter.

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In the longer range beyond this, the GFS is trending away from the Omega block over the Bering Sea which was keeping a +EPO in place to an Aleutian low with a -EPO AK ridge.  PNA still neutral and a low heights hanging around SE Canada which would lock in HP over us for a while.  Sustained cold.

 

EDIT:  After day 10, the PNA ridge does show up.  That's exciting.

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5 minutes ago, Wow said:

In the longer range beyond this, the GFS is trending away from the Omega block over the Bering Sea which was keeping a +EPO in place to an Aleutian low with a -EPO AK ridge.  PNA still neutral and a low heights hanging around SE Canada which would lock in HP over us for a while.  Sustained cold.

You mentioned sustained cold in a post last night as well.  The heights and the 540 line just don't go that low for that long in this area.  Sustained cold to me is like what we had several years ago.  If you pulled up meteostar then the heights and 540 were in the blue and below normal for the entire gfs run over and over again. 

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9 minutes ago, Wow said:

In the longer range beyond this, the GFS is trending away from the Omega block over the Bering Sea which was keeping a +EPO in place to an Aleutian low with a -EPO AK ridge.  PNA still neutral and a low heights hanging around SE Canada which would lock in HP over us for a while.  Sustained cold.

Trop PV is nicely in place over N Canada...need some Yukon or Greenland ridging to give it more of a push south, else the core of the cold stays along the northern tier.  Seems like we've gone away from the cold dump in the west though.

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20 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Latest GFS....ColdRain's lakes low is messing this up.  We need that H to be sprawling and not muck it up with a low.  Even this is a nice VA and N-NC snow event.

 

 

 

I hate lakes lows....that is all.  

Get them out of the way this month, nothing but banana highs in January/February please. 

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6 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said:

Um, . . . no. That pesky GL Low is going to screw it up anyway.

We shouldn't throw this system out just yet. Especially, how the trends have been. Don't credit one bad run with 24+ hours of good trends. Still not sold but it is the best chance we have so far this year...

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

We have had this GL low discussion! Every year, it usually ends up disappearing in future runs , that would be the least of our problems! :(

Yep, In Nina years the GL low is more of a factor as is the SE ridge. However, this year hasn't really qualified as a Nina. I would not worry about the GL low just yet.

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I wouldn't even call this consistency. Huge changes run to run.

06z ridge is much more flatter on the west due to the energy in the Gulf of Alaska

AemhRZd.png


with the 12z, the energy is more south digging into the pacific off the west coast which creates a PNA-like ridging. Suddenly energy sweeps down further south allowing a "snow"...but more importantly this was really, really close to a phase.

jMuo4R5.png

 

I don't consider this a "trend" more like the model has no clue even at 180 hours, remember 5-days is usually when models are around 88%-89% accurate at 500mb in the NH, so this is right at 7.5 days. We have another 2.5 days until the model starts to get a grasp on the pattern for this "system" if it materializes.

Had it phased we would be looking at a storm from the MA to the NE. There's also a bit of CAD present on the 12z which gives us snow at onset then freezing rain.

eghxQ8P.png

Not sure we would want a phase given the lack of cold air, would mean rain for all of us. We want to hope for energy getting slotted south, and even then the cold seems inadequate so we're looking at ice/IP event...if this storm even stays on modeling.

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