FallsLake Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 8 minutes ago, TiltedStorm said: Loving the trends for the western Carolinas December 15-16 storm. Awesome CAD effect. with GFS and Canadian. There is definitely potential around day 10. Still to far out to worry about details but here is the day 10 setup from 6z GFS. **after this the storm pushes westward but a strong CAD is still able to provide the western Carolinas a significant event. But again that's too much details at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: There is definitely potential around day 10. Still to far out to worry about details but here is the day 10 setup from 6z GFS. **after this the storm pushes westward but a strong CAD is still able to provide the western Carolinas a significant event. But again that's too much details at this range. im keeping my eye on that High pressure system over eastern Canada...Has to hold up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 hours ago, downeastnc said: 8 days now......still think its a long shot, would probably be a touch to warm at the surface to pull off any real accumulations but its close.... Just seeing some snow fall would be a big win at this point. Snow chances by the middle of December is a good sign. A lot better than last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 13 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Just seeing some snow fall would be a big win at this point. Snow chances by the middle of December is a good sign. A lot better than last winter. Agree Brick. Outside of '09 and '10, recent December patterns have been abysmal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Forecasted snowpack increase to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 hour ago, TiltedStorm said: im keeping my eye on that High pressure system over eastern Canada...Has to hold up I know it's just one run, but that high is in perfect position!! And the feed of that arctic air , delicious ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 27 minutes ago, griteater said: Forecasted snowpack increase to our north Which is very important for CAD events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 You would think a 1040+ HP would keep a storm at bay from cutting like that. But I guess it's that GL low capturing the southern system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Latest GFS....ColdRain's lakes low is messing this up. We need that H to be sprawling and not muck it up with a low. Even this is a nice VA and N-NC snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Silly looking at specifics this far out probably, but the GFS would likely be very cold at the surface with the wedgie it's giving you all on the 12z modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 And...wait for it...sleet storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 12/15 threat still getting sniffed out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherfan2 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Is there any chance that could trend south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 In the longer range beyond this, the GFS is trending away from the Omega block over the Bering Sea which was keeping a +EPO in place to an Aleutian low with a -EPO AK ridge. PNA still neutral and a low heights hanging around SE Canada which would lock in HP over us for a while. Sustained cold. EDIT: After day 10, the PNA ridge does show up. That's exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 yea, 3-4 runs in a row on the gfs showing the 12/15 event. decent consistency this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 High sliding off the coast and GL low= no Bueno! Some onset pellets, outside of N NC Piedmont, in my opinion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, Wow said: In the longer range beyond this, the GFS is trending away from the Omega block over the Bering Sea which was keeping a +EPO in place to an Aleutian low with a -EPO AK ridge. PNA still neutral and a low heights hanging around SE Canada which would lock in HP over us for a while. Sustained cold. You mentioned sustained cold in a post last night as well. The heights and the 540 line just don't go that low for that long in this area. Sustained cold to me is like what we had several years ago. If you pulled up meteostar then the heights and 540 were in the blue and below normal for the entire gfs run over and over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 9 minutes ago, Wow said: In the longer range beyond this, the GFS is trending away from the Omega block over the Bering Sea which was keeping a +EPO in place to an Aleutian low with a -EPO AK ridge. PNA still neutral and a low heights hanging around SE Canada which would lock in HP over us for a while. Sustained cold. Trop PV is nicely in place over N Canada...need some Yukon or Greenland ridging to give it more of a push south, else the core of the cold stays along the northern tier. Seems like we've gone away from the cold dump in the west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 20 minutes ago, packbacker said: Latest GFS....ColdRain's lakes low is messing this up. We need that H to be sprawling and not muck it up with a low. Even this is a nice VA and N-NC snow event. I hate lakes lows....that is all. Get them out of the way this month, nothing but banana highs in January/February please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 29 minutes ago, Weatherfan2 said: Is there any chance that could trend south? Um, . . . no. That pesky GL Low is going to screw it up anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 We have had this GL low discussion! Every year, it usually ends up disappearing in future runs , that would be the least of our problems! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 12z gfs really craps the pattern after next week Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: Um, . . . no. That pesky GL Low is going to screw it up anyway. We shouldn't throw this system out just yet. Especially, how the trends have been. Don't credit one bad run with 24+ hours of good trends. Still not sold but it is the best chance we have so far this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: We have had this GL low discussion! Every year, it usually ends up disappearing in future runs , that would be the least of our problems! Yep, In Nina years the GL low is more of a factor as is the SE ridge. However, this year hasn't really qualified as a Nina. I would not worry about the GL low just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 I wouldn't even call this consistency. Huge changes run to run. 06z ridge is much more flatter on the west due to the energy in the Gulf of Alaska with the 12z, the energy is more south digging into the pacific off the west coast which creates a PNA-like ridging. Suddenly energy sweeps down further south allowing a "snow"...but more importantly this was really, really close to a phase. I don't consider this a "trend" more like the model has no clue even at 180 hours, remember 5-days is usually when models are around 88%-89% accurate at 500mb in the NH, so this is right at 7.5 days. We have another 2.5 days until the model starts to get a grasp on the pattern for this "system" if it materializes. Had it phased we would be looking at a storm from the MA to the NE. There's also a bit of CAD present on the 12z which gives us snow at onset then freezing rain. Not sure we would want a phase given the lack of cold air, would mean rain for all of us. We want to hope for energy getting slotted south, and even then the cold seems inadequate so we're looking at ice/IP event...if this storm even stays on modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 The 12z GEFS individual members aren't even bad through Day 12 for much of the Southeast. The chances are really on the table for various solutions. Quite a few have substantial Winter storms as far South as Southern Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, Shawn said: The 12z GFS individual members aren't even bad through Day 12 for much of the Southeast. The chances are really on the table for various solutions. Quite a few have substantial Winter storms as far South as Southern Georgia. How much for CAE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Potential...I like it more for just N/NW of here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: How much for CAE? Meh, I don't buy it. If I were living Along Northern GA, into Upstate SC and into NC, I'd be hopeful though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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