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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion

NWNC2015

By NWNC2015,
in Southeastern States

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

That is a substantial high, Wow, and in a pretty good spot.  And there is a 1047 right on its heels.  Been a while since we've seen a steady generation and influx of strong highs like that.  I don't care what any model shows re: snow:  If we don't have a good high in a favorable spot, 9 times out of 10, you can forget it.

Anyway, I like what I see.  Now if we can just replace that number 2 in the hundreds digit with a 0.... :)

Meh, that has cold air getting stuck in TN and not getting here in time for precip!? Thought we needed our highs over GL or NE, for our best events?

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Meh, that has cold air getting stuck in TN and not getting here in time for precip!? Thought we needed our highs over GL or NE, for our best events?

Meh on your meh.  The big blue line is to your south!  To be fair, we need to ditch the Lakes Low, but first thing's first.  Let's get some cold onto our side of the planet.

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NCWX

NCWX

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Wow said:

Watch this area with the big arctic high coming in 12/15.  If s/w holds on, this is a good overrunning event.

b2YxIHc.png

Does the high in upper western canada say 1044 or 1049?  Thats pretty strong.  Will that hold and push colder air south?

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Iceagewhereartthou

Iceagewhereartthou

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Meh, that has cold air getting stuck in TN and not getting here in time for precip!? Thought we needed our highs over GL or NE, for our best events?

That was my first thought as well, though I think if strong enough, that kind of high can still bring winds from the NE. Still looks a little too far West though. The double Low looks interesting, wonder why it would be so moisture starved. I think we would need more like a 1005 or something probably. Looks like a pretty good track across N Fla. At least some ingredients are there and we have something to look at. MUCH better December than last year incoming, that's for sure!

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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Gotten quality ice storms with lows cutting west of the Apps! If the wedge is strong

That's how we usually get our icestorms. One of the worst ones we got here came with a strong low that went well to our northwest. The temp did reach freezing, but only after the precip had ended. It was a close call though, because the cold air did erode quickly over the southern and eastern upstate. Jonesville was only about 2-3 miles into the longer lasting cold air, but it was bad here with limbs down all over the place.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

please, lucy, 'splain to me why anyone would want an ice storm, with limbs and trees down all over the place ... been there done that and it is no nicer than a 'cane

just askin'

Likely because it's rare to have a substantial one.. along with most Wintry precipitation.  Personally, I'm not a fan of a devastating ice storm; I don't mind a small one though.  The same could be asked about tornadoes, hurricanes, severe wind storms.  It's just "extreme, different" maybe.

I am liking the modeling from Mid-Month on.  While down here my way, we may not see much anything this time around, it looks like a good chance North of here into NC.  Maybe even Northern SC/Upstate areas.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

please, lucy, 'splain to me why anyone would want an ice storm, with limbs and trees down all over the place ... been there done that and it is no nicer than a 'cane

just askin'

Well, now that the tornado took out all my pine trees, I say bring on the ice storms!! Plus, thanks to the beloved warm nose, I only get sleet or freezing rain anyway

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, pcbjr said:

please, lucy, 'splain to me why anyone would want an ice storm, with limbs and trees down all over the place ... been there done that and it is no nicer than a 'cane

just askin'

I mean, I'd rather have 3 feet of snow with temperatures in the teens, but I'll take the ice if that's all I can get

 

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, griteater said:

I mean, I'd rather have 3 feet of snow with temperatures in the teens, but I'll take the ice if that's all I can get

I'd rather have three one hundredths of an inch of snow (or none at all for that matter) than an inch of ice that cripples folks with no heat for days; a 'cane - no electricity and 90º - miserable but survivable - ice is deadly after a couple of days. just askin' - why even want that?

 

PS - Yes - I am in Gainesville FL and immune from ice - but I've lived in the upper mid-west and in a few other places where ice was very deadly - it's all most like me rooting for a Cat 3 to cross from Cedar key to St. Augustine just so I can see the wind while watching my neighbors and me maybe getting hurt or worse - just makes no sense on wishing for ice (or anything potentially deadly) IMHO

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

I'd rather have three one hundredths of an inch of snow (or none at all for that matter) than an inch of ice that cripples folks with no heat for days; a 'cane - no electricity and 90º - miserable but survivable - ice is deadly after a couple of days. just askin' - why even want that?

Some just really like winter weather and don't worry too much about the negatives...a large part of it is the novelty of it.  You have to be prepared with alternate forms of heat / generators etc.  An inch of ice is a huge ice storm and would be very, very rare around here.

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

I'd rather have three one hundredths of an inch of snow (or none at all for that matter) than an inch of ice that cripples folks with no heat for days; a 'cane - no electricity and 90º - miserable but survivable - ice is deadly after a couple of days. just askin' - why even want that?

Enough said - least by me. I just have dealt with some very bad ice situations with folks and wondered why people not there were rooting for the destruction - weather is what we're here about and we can't control it obviously - but some healthy respect for consequences sometimes seems lost - but enough said ....

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

PS - Yes - I am in Gainesville FL and immune from ice - but I've lived in the upper mid-west and in a few other places where ice was very deadly - it's all most like me rooting for a Cat 3 to cross from Cedar key to St. Augustine just so I can see the wind while watching my neighbors and me maybe getting hurt or worse - just makes no sense on wishing for ice (or anything potentially deadly) IMHO

I hear ya, but I don't see the comparison to hurricanes at all.  We don't get ice storms here that come anywhere close to the kind of property damage and infrastructure damage you see with a Cat 3 hurricane.

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, griteater said:

I hear ya, but I don't see the comparison to hurricanes at all.  We don't get ice storms here that come anywhere close to the kind of property damage and infrastructure damage you see with a Cat 3 hurricane.

as i said - enough from me - just sharing some thoughts (which i hope are well considered) - anyway - here's hoping you get a good 3' of frozen!

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

Enough said - least by me. I just have dealt with some very bad ice situations with folks and wondered why people not there were rooting for the destruction - weather is what we're here about and we can't control it obviously - but some healthy respect for consequences sometimes seems lost - but enough said ....

 

I'm with you. A major ice storm ranks with a colonoscopy on my scale. :)

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

It doesn't really matter what we wish for, since it has no impact on sensible weather. (We seem to have this same discussion every year at the beginning of each of our interesting weather seasons: tornado/severe, hurricane, and winter.)

Ice storms can be incredibly beautiful. They also make for fantastic sledding. You can actually use sleds with runners when you get a good foundation of sleet followed by a nice glaze of freezing rain. They also provide days off work/school for those of us in education.

Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk

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JoshM

JoshM

Posted
Posted

0z Canadian showing 33 and rain for Monday early AM (12/12) for most of Western NC, plus a decent chunk of the Upstate. GFS showing some subfreezing towards the mountains, but precip is slower to arrive. Liking these CADs popping up with some consistency, I'll take my chances with those.

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