FallsLake Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, jburns said: The weather channel has winter storm names more appropriate for the north. Just so we don't feel left out I give you the...... 2016-17 SE Forum Winter Storm Names Almost Benign Cancel Downer Expletive Flurry Grief Hopeless Insignificant Joke Kludge Letdown Maybe Nope Obstacle Pitiful Quitter Rainy Showers Trace Useless Valueless Waste Xeric Yuck Zephyr Right now I'll take Flurry, Maybe, and Trace. I learned as a kid that Maybe means Yes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Right now I'll take Flurry, Maybe, and Trace. I learned as a kid that Maybe means Yes... Yeah, maybe was probably too optimistic. I should have used "mockery". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 I'll take showers, because it could mean snow showers ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 42 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yes...I am a buyer of the day 9 overrunning event on the Euro. Light snows for NC/VA. Yay, first EURO fantasy snow of the year in CLT....on Dec 6, not bad. Fantasy snow = so, you're telling me there's a chance!! How do you copy and paste a model jpeg/file in here now. Since the Board upgrade I'm not sure how to use. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Nice little Hit on the Euro for Mid Month, go figure. 8-9 days out but only 6-7 days out for winter storm watch and only 4-5 days out beofre burns grants Brick permission to start a thread using the inside 5 day rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 9 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Yay, first EURO fantasy snow of the year in CLT....on Dec 6, not bad. Fantasy snow = so, you're telling me there's a chance!! How do you copy and paste a model jpeg/file in here now. Since the Board upgrade I'm not sure how to use. thanks. Allow me to help you: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Nice little Hit on the Euro for Mid Month, go figure. 8-9 days out but only 6-7 days out for winter storm watch and only 4-5 days out beofre burns grants Brick permission to start a thread using the inside 5 day rule. Lol, it will be well north, once we get inside 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Lol, it will be well north, once we get inside 5 days. by 0Z tonight. Fixed it for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Lol, it will be well north, once we get inside 5 days. It will be a shetley drought next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 1 hour ago, Upstate Tiger said: Well I will be moving from the upstate of SC (Greenville area) to Gastonia, NC in a few weeks with my new job. I am anticipating that this 90 mile move north will result in a dramatic increase in my winter weather probabilities (LOL). Now I don't have to be jealous of my NC friends anymore! From CPC below, looks like some cold stuff coming into US in a week or so! For Tuesday December 13 - Monday December 19: Ensemble means agree that anomalous ridging aloft persists across the Bering Sea which is likely to result in another arctic high shifting south from Canada into the northern Great Plains by the beginning of Week-2. Much below-normal temperatures are likely to affect at least the north-central U.S. and parts of Alaska through mid-December. The slight, moderate, and high risk of much below-normal temperatures are posted for areas where the GEFS reforecast tool indicates that daily minimum temperatures have a 20, 40, or 60 percent chance, respectively, of falling below the 15th percentile comparted to climatology. The 6Z GFS ensemble mean indicates temperatures averaging more than 25 degrees F below normal across the northern high Plains early in Week-2. No additional winter weather hazards are posted during Week-2 as model solutions vary on the timing of heavy snow across the western U.S. and there is no clear signal for the location of heavy snow and/or freezing rain across the central and eastern U.S. Try the Cherryville area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 23 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Yay, first EURO fantasy snow of the year in CLT....on Dec 6, not bad. Fantasy snow = so, you're telling me there's a chance!! How do you copy and paste a model jpeg/file in here now. Since the Board upgrade I'm not sure how to use. thanks. I dont see any flakes at all for Charlotte or anywhere west of highway 1 and east of the escarpment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 12 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Lol, it will be well north, once we get inside 5 days. Maybe a trend south, if the vortex is anything like GFS is smoking!? in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Nice little Hit on the Euro for Mid Month, go figure. 8-9 days out but only 6-7 days out for winter storm watch and only 4-5 days out beofre burns grants Brick permission to start a thread using the inside 5 day rule. won't need 6-7 days to watch. it will be gone at 00z . The euro has been horrible post day 5 Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Pattern still looks mighty transient in the long range. Someone in the northern SE could possibly cash in but it looks like a thread the needle event if anything in the next ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherfan2 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Let's see if the Euro still has it by the 5 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 packs going like the EPS until the very end. Eastern trough idea more in line with the Canadian ensembles vs the western trough idea the gefs hadSent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Models keep pushing back the time when the West Alaska ridging breaks down. Looking likely that we see a non-short period of time where cold air is dumped into Canada - then where does it go when it reaches the U.S.? Focused west of Rockies, focused east of Rockies, or stays along the northern tier?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 29 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Pattern still looks mighty transient in the long range. Someone in the northern SE could possibly cash in but it looks like a thread the needle event if anything in the next ten days. When are any of our wintry events, not thread the needle!? It doesn't take much to screw up a storm for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 22 minutes ago, Stormcatt said: packs going like the EPS until the very end. Eastern trough idea more in line with the Canadian ensembles vs the western trough idea the gefs had Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Yep...GEFS is either really good or struggling right now. Not a great snow pattern but we either need HLB or we need to fire up a ridge in the west, not just the omega block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Yep...GEFS is either really good or struggling right now. Not a great snow pattern but we either need HLB or we need to fire up a ridge in the west, not just the omega block.true , I guess the good thing is the eps keeps Canada in the freeze the whole run. So at least we keep the cold on our side regardless of what happens late in the period Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, Stormcatt said: true , I guess the good thing is the eps keeps Canada in the freeze the whole run. So at least we keep the cold on our side regardless of what happens late in the period Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Yep...definitely not a disaster pattern even at the very end of the run when we warm up. Light/small overrunning event day 8-13 is possible for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 From DT: STILL SEEING STRONG SIGNAL OF 1ST SNOW/ ICE THREAT VA MD NC TN DEC 16-17 XMAS Week could be very cold -- MORE later this eevenig in the new edition of the next 3 weekends newsletter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Now this is interesting... About 12 hours earlier than when the Euro depicted this, and much less accumulation (not that it matters at this point), but... it's the same setup/system. Still WAY too early to treat this as a legitimate threat, but this is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 More indications of a favorable pattern. At the 11 day mark, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 No matter how many cold shots we get, the same song and dance ensues. Rain-Cold-Warm-Rain-Cold-Warm-Rain. Story of our lives. Oh well, such is life south of 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 1 minute ago, cg2916 said: More indications of a favorable pattern. At the 11 day mark, of course. Favorable? That's a massive cutting low pressure system kicking the arse of a quickly exiting high pressure system with at best front end sleet for an hour then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 GFS is sustained cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Favorable? That's a massive cutting low pressure system kicking the arse of a quickly exiting high pressure system with at best front end sleet for an hour then rain. Yeah, that's front end mix (MAYBE) to rain or dry slot (/Shetley). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Watch this area with the big arctic high coming in 12/15. If s/w holds on, this is a good overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 That is a substantial high, Wow, and in a pretty good spot. And there is a 1047 right on its heels. Been a while since we've seen a steady generation and influx of strong highs like that. I don't care what any model shows re: snow: If we don't have a good high in a favorable spot, 9 times out of 10, you can forget it. Anyway, I like what I see. Now if we can just replace that number 2 in the hundreds digit with a 0.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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