Jonathan Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 So I'm assuming IF we were to get an arctic blast like the GFS shows, our omega ridge wouldn't play spoiler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherfan2 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 I literally fell out of my chair when I saw the temperature anamolies. MAN THATS COLD!!! But too bad it's in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 At least it's inside 10 days. That's a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Weatherbell maps show a max temps as cold as 8F in Boone with 32 as far south as Columbia and 36 at CHS. Cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 JB is sloshing around in his bathtub after that run. As grit said, focus of the cold is east of the rockies this run Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Check out the cross polar look here from Siberia to the U.S. Also, tropospheric PV no longer parked over there in Siberia. Small changes in the Pacific ridging placement / evolution are leading to various outcomes (cold focused in the west vs. east). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 26 minutes ago, Jonathan said: So I'm assuming IF we were to get an arctic blast like the GFS shows, our omega ridge wouldn't play spoiler? No, but can we move it a hair east and have it connect to a Scandinavian ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 16 minutes ago, packbacker said: No, but can we move it a hair east and have it connect to a Scandinavian ridge. lol, yeah that would be our +PNA/-NAO we were looking for! I don't think I ever remember seeing a ridge bridge like that ever taking place. Modeled maybe, but not actually happening. I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 59 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: wowza. frigid. Love the Shetley heat dome!! Always there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 7 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: lol, yeah that would be our +PNA/-NAO we were looking for! I don't think I ever remember seeing a ridge bridge like that ever taking place. Modeled maybe, but not actually happening. I could be wrong though. 2014...was the last and sure there are a few more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 GEFS really cranks up the SER and buries trough in west. Weaker AK ridge. CMC ENS look pretty good. Euro for the tiebreaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Love the Shetley heat dome!! Always there! Your downwind from the highest mountains in the Appalachians. You get Chinooked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Latest from JB: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 5 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Latest from JB: Never seen JB go with the warm model!!? Reverse psychology?? Why does he even look at GFS and Euro? He has the best model, the Pioneer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Never seen JB go with the warm model!!? Reverse psychology?? Why does he even look at GFS and Euro? He has the best model, the Pioneer! I don't know much about the model but he has been hyping it lately. I'm guessing it's an in house model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 29 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Love the Shetley heat dome!! Always there! That's actually west of both of us, along the Savannah river on that map. I think the real reason for that is downsloping though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 24 minutes ago, packbacker said: GEFS really cranks up the SER and buries trough in west. Weaker AK ridge. CMC ENS look pretty good. Euro for the tiebreaker CMC Ensemble day 12. Much weaker SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Still trending drier though and I'd bet anything that'll turn out to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 20 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Never seen JB go with the warm model!!? Reverse psychology?? Why does he even look at GFS and Euro? He has the best model, the Pioneer! Ensemble is the colder one on the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Is it just me or do both maps look kind of warmish in the deep south ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Well I will be moving from the upstate of SC (Greenville area) to Gastonia, NC in a few weeks with my new job. I am anticipating that this 90 mile move north will result in a dramatic increase in my winter weather probabilities (LOL). Now I don't have to be jealous of my NC friends anymore! From CPC below, looks like some cold stuff coming into US in a week or so! For Tuesday December 13 - Monday December 19: Ensemble means agree that anomalous ridging aloft persists across the Bering Sea which is likely to result in another arctic high shifting south from Canada into the northern Great Plains by the beginning of Week-2. Much below-normal temperatures are likely to affect at least the north-central U.S. and parts of Alaska through mid-December. The slight, moderate, and high risk of much below-normal temperatures are posted for areas where the GEFS reforecast tool indicates that daily minimum temperatures have a 20, 40, or 60 percent chance, respectively, of falling below the 15th percentile comparted to climatology. The 6Z GFS ensemble mean indicates temperatures averaging more than 25 degrees F below normal across the northern high Plains early in Week-2. No additional winter weather hazards are posted during Week-2 as model solutions vary on the timing of heavy snow across the western U.S. and there is no clear signal for the location of heavy snow and/or freezing rain across the central and eastern U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Well I will be moving from the upstate of SC (Greenville area) to Gastonia, NC in a few weeks with my new job. I am anticipating that this 90 mile move north will result in a dramatic increase in my winter weather probabilities (LOL). Now I don't have to be jealous of my NC friends anymore! From CPC below, looks like some cold stuff coming into US in a week or so! For Tuesday December 13 - Monday December 19: Ensemble means agree that anomalous ridging aloft persists across the Bering Sea which is likely to result in another arctic high shifting south from Canada into the northern Great Plains by the beginning of Week-2. Much below-normal temperatures are likely to affect at least the north-central U.S. and parts of Alaska through mid-December. The slight, moderate, and high risk of much below-normal temperatures are posted for areas where the GEFS reforecast tool indicates that daily minimum temperatures have a 20, 40, or 60 percent chance, respectively, of falling below the 15th percentile comparted to climatology. The 6Z GFS ensemble mean indicates temperatures averaging more than 25 degrees F below normal across the northern high Plains early in Week-2. No additional winter weather hazards are posted during Week-2 as model solutions vary on the timing of heavy snow across the western U.S. and there is no clear signal for the location of heavy snow and/or freezing rain across the central and eastern U.S. Gastonia is just as much east as it is north of Greenville isnt it ? It's maybe 30-40 miles further north in latitude ? I wouldn't imagine there being a big difference in winter weather ? Also, isn't Greenville a little higher in elevation ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Well I will be moving from the upstate of SC (Greenville area) to Gastonia, NC in a few weeks with my new job. I am anticipating that this 90 mile move north will result in a dramatic increase in my winter weather probabilities (LOL). Now I don't have to be jealous of my NC friends anymore! From CPC below, looks like some cold stuff coming into US in a week or so! For Tuesday December 13 - Monday December 19: Ensemble means agree that anomalous ridging aloft persists across the Bering Sea which is likely to result in another arctic high shifting south from Canada into the northern Great Plains by the beginning of Week-2. Much below-normal temperatures are likely to affect at least the north-central U.S. and parts of Alaska through mid-December. The slight, moderate, and high risk of much below-normal temperatures are posted for areas where the GEFS reforecast tool indicates that daily minimum temperatures have a 20, 40, or 60 percent chance, respectively, of falling below the 15th percentile comparted to climatology. The 6Z GFS ensemble mean indicates temperatures averaging more than 25 degrees F below normal across the northern high Plains early in Week-2. No additional winter weather hazards are posted during Week-2 as model solutions vary on the timing of heavy snow across the western U.S. and there is no clear signal for the location of heavy snow and/or freezing rain across the central and eastern U.S. I'm sorry for your move! I grew up in Gastonia for about 20 years, I can tell you, you will do noticeably better in the wintry weather department! Many times y'all do better than Charlotte, just by being slightly west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 9 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Is it just me or do both maps look kind of warmish in the deep south ? It's just you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Gastonia is just as much east as it is north of Greenville isnt it ? It's maybe 30-40 miles further north in latitude ? I wouldn't imagine there being a big difference in winter weather ? Also, isn't Greenville a little higher in elevation ? I was only joking . Climatology wise they are pretty close even though Greenville is higher in elevation and closer to the mountains. Gastonia sits west of Charlotte by about 20 miles. Of course, 20 miles can sometimes be the difference between snow and cold rain! We hope to find a place actually west of Gastonia. We will be up there right after Christmas. I hope I am not the Kiss of Death for that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 7 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Gastonia is just as much east as it is north of Greenville isnt it ? It's maybe 30-40 miles further north in latitude ? I wouldn't imagine there being a big difference in winter weather ? Also, isn't Greenville a little higher in elevation ? Correct. Greenville, SC sits an elevation of 965 feet (my house, immediately south of downtown, is about 1000 feet). Gastonia, NC's elevation is just under 800 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Yes...I am a buyer of the day 9 overrunning event on the Euro. Light snows for NC/VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 The weather channel has winter storm names more appropriate for the north. Just so we don't feel left out I give you the...... 2016-17 SE Forum Winter Storm Names Almost Benign Cancel Downer Expletive Flurry Grief Hopeless Insignificant Joke Kludge Letdown Maybe Nope Obstacle Pitiful Quitter Rainy Showers Trace Useless Valueless Waste Xeric Yuck Zephyr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yes...I am a buyer of the day 9 overrunning event on the Euro. Light snows for NC/VA. Yessssss! Inside of 10 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yes...I am a buyer of the day 9 overrunning event on the Euro. Light snows for NC/VA. I'm guessing the cold is the winner! Euro was tie-breaker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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