Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion

[Cold Rain]

It's baffling to me why we hardly see Miller As in the winter anymore...or favorably configured -NAOs.  You can get all kinds of Miller Bs and +NAOs or east-based -NAOs no problem.

[Jonathan]

Um...to be fair...everyone was "expecting" a snowy December because that's literally what every winter forecast posted on here said should happen lol. And not necessarily lots of snow, but everyone said December would be when we got whatever snow we got, then torch the rest of winter with spring starting in January.

[mackerel_sky]

19 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

It's baffling to me why we hardly see Miller As in the winter anymore...or favorably configured -NAOs.  You can get all kinds of Miller Bs and +NAOs or east-based -NAOs no problem.

It's not the 70s or 80s anymore, your getting old!

im just happy with some below normal highs this weekend! My expectations are low!

[packfan98]

6 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Um...to be fair...everyone was "expecting" a snowy December because that's literally what every winter forecast posted on here said should happen lol. And not necessarily lots of snow, but everyone said December would be when we got whatever snow we got, then torch the rest of winter with spring starting in January.

I agree that most had early spring, but I thought that the torch was supposed to happen the last half of February, not starting in January.  Maybe we can get a good pattern to hold for a little longer before the early bloom?

[packbacker]

35 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

For Triad which I guess qualifies as central NC I'm going before Christmas, precisely Mid Month for 1st event. The "Event" qualifies as frozen precip of any variety so take with a grain of salt. Chance for pure snows are going to be tricky as always. Gonna be hard pressed to avoid mixing issues in storms because I beleive we'll see more miller B's as oppossed to A's. Of course I could be wrong and blocking show s up enough to slow the flow down so we can get few phasers.

If the 0z EPS run comes fruition then wouldn't doubt it.  Especially if the ridge would pop through in the west.  Seems like every model run takes one step forward and then backs off.  

Would be very surprised if MidAtl goes the next 2 weeks without at least  minor event.  

[Cold Rain]

14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

It's not the 70s or 80s anymore, your getting old!

im just happy with some below normal highs this weekend! My expectations are low!

I know man.

[FallsLake]

Indices today:

AO - Goes strongly positive and then heads towards neutral in the LR **Not good

NAO - Never averages above neutral and then goes stronger negative in the LR **Good

PNA - Stays negative the whole period. Looks to move towards neutral in the LR (but still averages negative) **Bad

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

[Weatherfan2]

Don't forget about the EPO and the WPO.

They are both negative, and allows cold air to build up in Canada and move south.

[Jonathan]

I think this is the year we find out just how important the PNA is to winter around these parts. We've scored plenty of times in the past few years without a -NAO but now without a +PNA we're suffering. The AO hasn't really been a big problem in recent winters.

[FallsLake]

8 minutes ago, Weatherfan2 said:

Don't forget about the EPO and the WPO.

They are both negative, and allows cold air to build up in Canada and move south.

Your right, the EPO saved us a few years back. I remember we went into January with the NAO/AO positive and the PNA negative, but the EPO was negative and we kept seeing the cold and wintery threats.

[FallsLake]

3 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

I think this is the year we find out just how important the PNA is to winter around these parts. We've scored plenty of times in the past few years without a -NAO but now without a +PNA we're suffering. The AO hasn't really been a big problem in recent winters.

Od course I just responded that it can be overcome; but I do agree that it's more important than the NAO and AO.  

[Jonathan]

11 minutes ago, Weatherfan2 said:

Don't forget about the EPO and the WPO.

They are both negative, and allows cold air to build up in Canada and move south.

I'm not sure on the EPO.

 

That omega ridge that develops near Alaska and pushes poleward is a hefty +EPO and It's in the medium to long range on most models.

That feature has to go IMO. It allows the polar jet to stay hung up in Canada but the roaring Pac jet undercuts it and slams right into the west coast.

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

It's baffling to me why we hardly see Miller As in the winter anymore...or favorably configured -NAOs.  You can get all kinds of Miller Bs and +NAOs or east-based -NAOs no problem.

 

Lack of Miller As is likely because the last 8 winters we have had only 1 favorable El Nino.  Otherwise its been neutral or La Nina.  Last winter's El Nino was simply too strong, so the fast moving Pac mostly prevented any big systems from organizing in the Gulf, and for the most part anywhere in the Eastern US.  NAO who knows, its mostly SST based in the NATL.  Given we are headed into a cold AMO I think -NAOs will continue to be infrequent.

[Cold Rain]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Lack of Miller As is likely because the last 8 winters we have had only 1 favorable El Nino.  Otherwise its been neutral or La Nina.  Last winter's El Nino was simply too strong, so the fast moving Pac mostly prevented any big systems from organizing in the Gulf, and for the most part anywhere in the Eastern US.  NAO who knows, its mostly SST based in the NATL.  Given we are headed into a cold AMO I think -NAOs will continue to be infrequent.

Well, both of those things are just bad for business around here.  We don't seem to have trouble getting plenty of good blocking in the summer, though. Are SSTs configured differently in the N Atl in the summer?  Or do they have a different impact on the formation of blocking in the summer vs the winter?  I haven't ever looked at it?

[SnowNiner]

55 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Od course I just responded that it can be overcome; but I do agree that it's more important than the NAO and AO.  

I think the -EPO is really helpful but it doesn't do the SE much good unless it includes a +PNA with an east coast trough/ridge west.  We just can't have a -PNA and get a good winter storm. 

A true -NAO is why I think we can't get true Miller A's anymore.  We keep getting Miller Bs or A/B Hybrids which causes us to get mixed bag events even at best.  I think I've probably had more sleet than snow in the last several years. I'm hoping at some point in January we get some sort of -NAO and +PNA mix.  That's always my hope really, but we can make due with just the +PNA IMO.   

[packbacker]

9 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

I think the -EPO is really helpful but it doesn't do the SE much good unless it includes a +PNA with an east coast trough/ridge west.  We just can't have a -PNA and get a good winter storm. 

A true -NAO is why I think we can't get true Miller A's anymore.  We keep getting Miller Bs or A/B Hybrids which causes us to get mixed bag events even at best.  I think I've probably had more sleet than snow in the last several years. I'm hoping at some point in January we get some sort of -NAO and +PNA mix.  That's always my hope really, but we can make due with just the +PNA IMO.   

Agree...we need either -NAO(preferred) or a well placed ridge.   And a lot of luck and sometimes all 3 are needed and even then it may not be enough.

[franklin NCwx]

Not excited about snow chances the next few weeks. the northern plains should see plenty of snow and become a glacier , we will see cold shots behind rain.

[griteater]

A better looking GFS run coming in, that's fo sho

[oconeexman]

1 minute ago, griteater said:

A better looking GFS run coming in, that's fo sho

Do tell Grit!

[packbacker]

Just now, griteater said:

A better looking GFS run coming in, that's fo sho

LOL...was just looking at that.  Drops the PV over the lakes with a SER and shows some overrunning potential.

 

[Jon]

Um...to be fair...everyone was "expecting" a snowy December because that's literally what every winter forecast posted on here said should happen lol. And not necessarily lots of snow, but everyone said December would be when we got whatever snow we got, then torch the rest of winter with spring starting in January.

Maybe for the NE but I've said it about 100 times, December snows are rare in the SE. No one, not one person, should expect snowfall in Dec outside of the mountains. Front loaded in my opinion also means cold starts earlier than later, ie. normal winter in D-F and not picking up in F with a marvelous march, etc. This doesn't seem like it's straying from the front loaded idea. If December torches that would be one thing, but I highly doubt that. The snow threats will shift east with time...first the Lakes then the NE/MA then us. Many Dec torch forecasts are going to end up doing pretty poorly I think.

[packbacker]

GFS FTW...

 

[Jonathan]

1 minute ago, Jon said:

Maybe for the NE but I've said it about 100 times, December snows are rare in the SE. No one, not one person, should expect snowfall in Dec outside of the mountains. Front loaded in my opinion also means cold starts earlier than later, ie. normal winter in D-F and not picking up in F with a marvelous march, etc. This doesn't seem like it's straying from the front loaded idea. If December torches that would be one thing, but I highly doubt that. The snow threats will shift east with time...first the Lakes then the NE/MA then us. Many Dec torch forecasts are going to end up doing pretty poorly I think.

I agree Jon. I was just guessing at how some may have came to expect December to perform with wintry weather because most went with normal to below normal temps in DEC then a toasty J-M.

[griteater]

4 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Do tell Grit!

Solid arctic blast.  32 degrees at 1PM from Montgomery to Columbia on Dec 15

[griteater]

A key to getting wintry weather in absence of downstream blocking is for the arctic blasts to be big and sprawling so that they aren't quick hitters, in and out of here

[DopplerWx]

wowza.  frigid.

[franklin NCwx]

5 minutes ago, packbacker said:

GFS FTW...

 

Hopefully the gfs has the right idea but it is the long range gfs so....

[Brick Tamland]

I really think it will start to get interesting the second half of this month. Everyone talks about wanting a +PNA and -NAO combo, but that is what we were supposedly getting last winter and it didn't help any. I just think this winter is going to be more like the one of 10-11.

[packbacker]

3 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

I agree Jon. I was just guessing at how some may have came to expect December to perform with wintry weather because most went with normal to below normal temps in DEC then a toasty J-M.

The only winter (nina) that I could find that had a BN Dec but yet finished AN for D-F was 05/06.  Majority of nina winters that had the Dec pattern we are seeing, cold centered in upper plains, whether it bled SE or not were pretty good winters for the SE.  Only duds snowfall wise I could find was 00/01 and 85/86, but those were BN winters.  They were extremely dry in Dec and for D-F.  We look to be fairly active, atleast in Dec and FWIW the weeklies kept that going into Jan.

[griteater]

GFS is cold, cutter, more cold coming down...some ridging develops in Gulf of Alaska, and the cold is kept east of the Rockies this run