Jonathan Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Everything I've read says we need that omega ridge near Alaska to get outta there. EPO stays positive and NAO stays neutral. At least the PV looks to split and give us a -AO, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Let's see who wins...GEFS has a better pac but EPS has a deeper trough and weaker SE ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 19 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Everything I've read says we need that omega ridge near Alaska to get outta there. EPO stays positive and NAO stays neutral. At least the PV looks to split and give us a -AO, I guess. Some of the souths biggest winter storms have occurred with a neutral NAO, or even +NAO! It's not the only thing that matters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Let's see who wins...GEFS has a better pac but EPS has a deeper trough and weaker SE ridging.glad you didn't mention the dumpster fire at the end of the eps Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Some of the souths biggest winter storms have occurred with a neutral NAO, or even +NAO! It's not the only thing that matters! True, but the +EPO keeps the Pac jet dominating. Lots of cutters. Need the PJ coming down over a ridge out west instead of right onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Stormcatt said: glad you didn't mention the dumpster fire at the end of the eps Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk This, whatever the next 10-12 days is, will break down and we probably go back to all out torch for a period of time. Just a matter of time. Hopefully in January we can get a better pattern to try and setup for a week or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 The worst news is that models are steadily trending drier. We are going to get another multi week rainless period sometime over the next month I'd bet. Many places outside of the mountains in the southeast will be hard pressed to get winter precip this winter and the drought will only get worse. The LaNina pattern will be very hard to break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 14 minutes ago, jshetley said: The worst news is that models are steadily trending drier. We are going to get another multi week rainless period sometime over the next month I'd bet. Many places outside of the mountains in the southeast will be hard pressed to get winter precip this winter and the drought will only get worse. The LaNina pattern will be very hard to break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 2 hours ago, packbacker said: Hopefully in January we can get a better pattern to try and setup for a week or two. then it'll be hopefully Feb, then hopefully March, then hopefully next year ..... stars and planets don't seem to be aligning too well this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Cohen's just relased blog couldn't be more cryptic. That whole theory needs to be tossed, gets taken way to seriuosly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 37 minutes ago, jshetley said: The worst news is that models are steadily trending drier. We are going to get another multi week rainless period sometime over the next month I'd bet. Many places outside of the mountains in the southeast will be hard pressed to get winter precip this winter and the drought will only get worse. The LaNina pattern will be very hard to break. We're not even in a Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: Cohen's just relased blog couldn't be more cryptic. What's his blog link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 34 minutes ago, packbacker said: Cohen's just relased blog couldn't be more cryptic. That whole theory needs to be tossed, gets taken way to seriuosly. LOL the SAI has been correct exactly 0 times since the "theory" emerged. I'm not sure why people get sucked into that every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 32 minutes ago, pcbjr said: What's his blog link? https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 4 minutes ago, Jonathan said: LOL the SAI has been correct exactly 0 times since the "theory" emerged. I'm not sure why people get sucked into that every year. Yeah, he just needs to come clean and write a final blog post saying that while it was a good thought, it just didn't work out this time. This cryptic "it could/might/maybe/possibly/should do this or that, depending on several dynamic factors that may or may not evolve in one direction or another" business is no better than poring over 384hr GFS charts and trying to understand what the weather is going to be 16 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 43 minutes ago, packbacker said: Cohen's just relased blog couldn't be more cryptic. That whole theory needs to be tossed, gets taken way to seriuosly. His current theory does need flushed and he should probably look at other influences outside of the snow cover or snow advance to explain why his theory is not doing well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 22 minutes ago, JoMo said: His current theory does need flushed and he should probably look at other influences outside of the snow cover or snow advance to explain why his theory is not doing well. Agree. I am sure it plays a part but it's not the driving factor. It's sour grapes for us as we want a stout -AO winter and he gets blamed. -AO doesn't look likely in the near/mid term, at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Still think, at least for central NC, our best chance of snows will be in Jan with weak Nina/+qbo. Even with the models SER happy in the near/mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Bastardi just tweeted this (an hour ago): Euro weeklies are out Entire nation below normal on average with plenty of snow next 46 days. Coldest run I have seen for similar period Obviously pay per view and proprietary but if anyone has this - any better description someone might provide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 9 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Bastardi just tweeted this (an hour ago): Euro weeklies are out Entire nation below normal on average with plenty of snow next 46 days. Coldest run I have seen for similar period Obviously pay per view and proprietary but if anyone has this - any better description someone might provide? That sounds right! Whatever models shows the coldest, gets the most subscriptions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 47 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Bastardi just tweeted this (an hour ago): Euro weeklies are out Entire nation below normal on average with plenty of snow next 46 days. Coldest run I have seen for similar period Obviously pay per view and proprietary but if anyone has this - any better description someone might provide? When you click on the 32 and 46 day mean 2m temp it's BN for bulk of conus except southwest. It keeps ridge up in AK for bulk of run (-epo'ish) and thus the BN. The SE is well AN for precip too. They look fine for what there use is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 54 minutes ago, packbacker said: When you click on the 32 and 46 day mean 2m temp it's BN for bulk of conus except southwest. It keeps ridge up in AK for bulk of run (-epo'ish) and thus the BN. The SE is well AN for precip too. They look fine for what there use is. Thanks Pack. I think we really need the EPO to kind of work with us. It's also telling that these models keep really wobbling from day to day to week to week. So much is going on its going to be hard to nail down a pattern post five days. I think we will be pulling our hair out a lot this winter. It may not even be that bad bUT because we cannot nail down a certain pattern for the mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Dec pattern/temp of our torch winters...just a little different then what the next couple of weeks are progged to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 I counted 7 (SEVEN) winter storms on the 0z GFS in 16 days in the Midwest. Absolutely unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Our second cold blast is completely gone now and it looks like of those 7 Midwest storms, the last 3 or 4 are rainers for Chicago Is the GEFS that bad too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Still think, at least for central NC, our best chance of snows will be in Jan with weak Nina/+qbo. Even with the models SER happy in the near/mid range. I agree, that's always our best chance. No one should expect a snowy pattern to emerge in December. I know you probably don't, but it seems this forum gets active with fantasy day 15 snowstorms on the GFS. The best we can hope for this month in the SE is cold and if we can build towards a better global pattern by the new year. If Dec as a whole ends up BN that's a win and if the GFS has its way, it will be. Of course we have a long way to go, still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 JB is still talking about the slosh theory, where the models will not be able to handle the cold air to the NW and it will eventually push to the SE (..not what the operational models currently show). He's also talking about La Nina being gone and we're now looking at a neutral winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherfan2 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 16 minutes ago, FallsLake said: JB is still talking about the slosh theory, where the models will not be able to handle the cold air to the NW and it will eventually push to the SE (..not what the operational models currently show). He's also talking about La Nina being gone and we're now looking at a neutral winter. Yeah the models always underestimate those cold blasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 58 minutes ago, Jon said: I agree, that's always our best chance. No one should expect a snowy pattern to emerge in December. I know you probably don't, but it seems this forum gets active with fantasy day 15 snowstorms on the GFS. The best we can hope for this month in the SE is cold and if we can build towards a better global pattern by the new year. If Dec as a whole ends up BN that's a win and if the GFS has its way, it will be. Of course we have a long way to go, still. Yep...the Dec's of our cold/snowy nina winters all look like above. Though I would want a little less SER as we get closer to Jan. I thought the day 8+ on the EPS looked pretty good, highest snowfall output on the mean yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 12 hours ago, packbacker said: Still think, at least for central NC, our best chance of snows will be in Jan with weak Nina/+qbo. Even with the models SER happy in the near/mid range. For Triad which I guess qualifies as central NC I'm going before Christmas, precisely Mid Month for 1st event. The "Event" qualifies as frozen precip of any variety so take with a grain of salt. Chance for pure snows are going to be tricky as always. Gonna be hard pressed to avoid mixing issues in storms because I beleive we'll see more miller B's as oppossed to A's. Of course I could be wrong and blocking show s up enough to slow the flow down so we can get few phasers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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