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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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53 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Yup, that is true about the mountains. I'm not sold on much of an overrunning event if the flow turns out like the one shown above.  But we have plenty of time to watch it, and lots of options are on the table.  Hopefully, we actually do get the cold in here.  That's always the first step, IMO.

Clippers if the N jet dominates.  If more of a split flow develops, watch for an overrunning system.

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Could easily see something sneak out of the SW, with that look and develop something around Texas! Maybe another white Christmas for Houston!!??

problem is most everything is gonna run west if it has a chance to organize. The pattern shown isn't really a good storm pattern. Sure we could get an overrunning event like Wow mentioned . But with that look , we for sure don't want an organized system cause it will no doubt cut

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16 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Actually turns into a glancing blow and the rest of the run is a dumpster fire with a strong SE ridge and cold in the NW...

I'm with you.  It turns into a great pattern north of Chicago.  But it's not a pattern that says December to remember in the east as depicted. We shall see of course.

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31 minutes ago, Weatherfan2 said:

Isn't December the transition month from fall to winter?

December is not a transition month, but November  is. December is a hardcore winter month and usually the 2nd and sometimes the coldest winter month. People tend to think Feb is colder, but in most places that is not true on average.

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7 minutes ago, packbacker said:

LOL...well a few good changes.  Gone is the low over the AK, the PV drops fairly far south, weak ridging in the west but that pink atrocity over the Bahama's has got to go.

 

Screen Shot 2016-12-05 at 1.22.47 PM.png

Yeah I mean we are going to see these changes this far out in the model land. we will see how it pans out. I do like the look of the indices today . 

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Just now, Met1985 said:

Yeah I mean we are going to see these changes this far out in the model land. we will see how it pans out. I do like the look of the indices today . 

Where's CR with our daily indices???  DT keeps mentioning the +EPO as a fly in the ointment in getting an even better pattern.  Won't the +EPO generate a good split-flow eventually in the right conditions.  That can be dynamite for the SE if it can stay cold and systems crashing into southern CA and trekking across the country.

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32 minutes ago, packbacker said:

LOL...well a few good changes.  Gone is the low over the AK, the PV drops fairly far south, weak ridging in the west but that pink atrocity over the Bahama's has got to go.

 

Screen Shot 2016-12-05 at 1.22.47 PM.png

Don't you need some se ridge (albeit not the 588dm monster shown here) to keep the dreaded nw flow at bay?

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1 hour ago, packfan98 said:

Where's CR with our daily indices???  DT keeps mentioning the +EPO as a fly in the ointment in getting an even better pattern.  Won't the +EPO generate a good split-flow eventually in the right conditions.  That can be dynamite for the SE if it can stay cold and systems crashing into southern CA and trekking across the country.

EPO is neg on GEFS after day 7 or so...why its so cold in MW.

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11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Euro must have been no Bueno!? No talk about it? I guess it does only go out to 10 days, so the cold blast is 12+ days away?? The -60 degree departure from normal?

Day 10 looked good to me.  Polar Vortex south of Hudson Bay, northern stream vort coming into the northwest and a southern vort coming ashore in central California.  Would probably be a close call and a messy system dependent upon location, but it would likely be "trackable" for some.  All that said, it's day 10.....................so.............meh.

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2 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

SuperJames is in Florida now also I believe. Funny that he doesn't post as much now that he's in Florida. I guess the weather in FL really is that boring.

Unless you like severe weather because right now the panhandle of Florida is under a tornado watch.

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