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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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7 hours ago, jshetley said:

Those are 100 degree readings beyond day 10 on the 0z GFS. 6z is actually cooler.

USA_TMAXFPER_2m_384.gif

Thats a weird map and its not even close to these maps from Tropical Tidbits....here are the frames for the same 00Z time frame on Tropical Tidbits for Sept 2 op the 0Z and 12Z runs today...

9-2 GFS.png

 

Gfs 9-2 12Z.png

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2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

And no one believes that will verify 

0Z GFS is awesome after Sunday, the pattern change looks real and locked in......gonna be low to mid 80'sfor most with DP's in the low 60 to mid 60's......

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2016081800&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=135

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19 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Hopefully it's a hot, dry heat. I can handle temps around 90 and low dp's.

 

19 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Hopefully it's a hot, dry heat. I can handle temps around 90 and low dp's.

Actually not horrible; at least from the 12z GFS. Looks like a lot of dew points in the 60s even some 50s during the 8-16 day period.  

http://www.twisterdata.com

 

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39 minutes ago, jshetley said:

The 0z GFS says the hottest weather of the entire summer is coming up. And it's also very dry too. It's showing 105+ almost up to the blue ridge in NC and over almost all of SC, GA, AL, and Miss.

6z doesn't look great either. As shown on the CPC map above the SE is going to be hot going into the first part of September. This is really not abnormal. A couple of years back our hottest one week period was the first week of September. You can correlate the first week of September to the first week of March. First seven days or so of March is still a time to look/hope for winter storms. The first seven days or so of September you can still get full summer heat (and humidity).

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Unfortunately, it looks like the break from the heat will be short. I am enjoying the taste of fall in the mornings, and wish it would come and stay for good. If the heat comes back, I hope the rain stays away. I am tired of the heat and rain combo and having to cut grass when it feels like 100 every week. Come on, fall! We need you!

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4 hours ago, FallsLake said:

6z doesn't look great either. As shown on the CPC map above the SE is going to be hot going into the first part of September. This is really not abnormal. A couple of years back our hottest one week period was the first week of September. You can correlate the first week of September to the first week of March. First seven days or so of March is still a time to look/hope for winter storms. The first seven days or so of September you can still get full summer heat (and humidity).

I'm afraid it may last into October this year though. It would not shock me to see 94-97 in early Oct with 70-72 dewpoints.

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4 hours ago, FallsLake said:

6z doesn't look great either. As shown on the CPC map above the SE is going to be hot going into the first part of September. This is really not abnormal. A couple of years back our hottest one week period was the first week of September. You can correlate the first week of September to the first week of March. First seven days or so of March is still a time to look/hope for winter storms. The first seven days or so of September you can still get full summer heat (and humidity).

If that's the case then I expect to see some major cold spells in early September since there can be some pretty big warm spells in early March.

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8 minutes ago, jshetley said:

I'm afraid it may last into October this year though. It would not shock me to see 94-97 in early Oct with 70-72 dewpoints.

That would probably be the warmest temps in the history of records around here for October. Anything over 85 around here in early Oct is very unusual.

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5 hours ago, Brick Tamland said:

One thing is we have had a lot of days in the 90s and heat indexes over 100 this summer, but we didn't have as many days with temps at 100 or above as we usually do, at least here. Seems we usually get a stretch like for 3 days with temps at 100. But I guess it all feels just as miserable.

At least if it gets into the 100s, it feels like you have bragging rights. Being consistently a few degrees above normal is less impressive.

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2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Looking at the 6z GFS and it continues to show a hot pattern for the next couple of weeks. The only good thing I see is some lower dew point values (as low as 50s some days) for many interior sections in the far extended. So maybe more of a dry heat instead of hot and humid.  

Very little rainfall.  Bad time to be going into a drought, right before fall.  It will mean that the leaves will be all brown and crusty instead of bright and vibrant. :(

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