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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah , the 3rd coldest temp in the USA!! Only colder at northern tip of ME, and ND at the Canadian border! Why not? Totally plausible

Around that same time it's showing negative temps along the coast with the midland Carolinas showing 20's. I'm no meteorologist but I can't fathom how that's even possible.

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1 minute ago, cg2916 said:

Around that same time it's showing negative temps along the coast with the midland Carolinas showing 20's. I'm no meteorologist but I can't fathom how that's even possible.

There was a storm and cold outbreak I read about fairly recently, that hit the coastal areas of NC very hard with snow and the sounds even froze! I think it was in December!?

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3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

There was a storm and cold outbreak I read about fairly recently, that hit the coastal areas of NC very hard with snow and the sounds even froze! I think it was in December!?

December 1989. I remember that very well. 1-2 feet of snow I-95 and east, with nothing over the western halves of SC and NC. Wilmington got down to 0 one morning due to snowcover.

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5 hours ago, jshetley said:

December 1989. I remember that very well. 1-2 feet of snow I-95 and east, with nothing over the western halves of SC and NC. Wilmington got down to 0 one morning due to snowcover.

Yep, if anyone wants to read about, ILM did a pretty good writeup about it.

http://www.weather.gov/ilm/ChristmasSnow1989

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7 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

18z ensembles in full suport of 18z gfs. sexy looking to say the least imo, plenty of cold and precip. Opportunities to be had, no doubt. Stay tuned 12z up next, interested to see euro ens in a.m., won't be staying up that late.

Game on! Don't let Brick see this! Glad to see it has ensemble support!

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10 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

18z ensembles in full suport of 18z gfs. sexy looking to say the least imo, plenty of cold and precip. Opportunities to be had, no doubt. Stay tuned 12z up next, interested to see euro ens in a.m., won't be staying up that late.

The hyperpole in here from run to run is crazy. It's like yes! Then oh well we are screwed  then oh we will be ok. lol

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Around that same time it's showing negative temps along the coast with the midland Carolinas showing 20's. I'm no meteorologist but I can't fathom how that's even possible.


Snowpack would cool the surface, especially a 12"-20" snow.
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28 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The hyperpole in here from run to run is crazy. It's like yes! Then oh well we are screwed  then oh we will be ok. lol

LOL...yeah, with the models so consistent from run to run.  Just cycled through the previous 4 runs of the GEFS and all were different in the PAC in the day 10+.  Although, glass half full post might be that they all have slowly ticked away from the AK low.

18z GEFS is nice though...full ridge to Russia. 

Screen Shot 2016-12-04 at 8.21.27 PM.png

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31 minutes ago, packbacker said:

LOL...yeah, with the models so consistent from run to run.  Just cycled through the previous 4 runs of the GEFS and all were different in the PAC in the day 10+.  Although, glass half full post might be that they all have slowly ticked away from the AK low.

18z GEFS is nice though...full ridge to Russia. 

Screen Shot 2016-12-04 at 8.21.27 PM.png

Lol I agree. The models being as temperamental as ever with runs changing basically every 6 hours.

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Just now, SimeonNC said:

The mountains will probably get some good NW flow, and there is always a possibility of an overrunning event in the mid-month.

Yup, that is true about the mountains. I'm not sold on much of an overrunning event if the flow turns out like the one shown above.  But we have plenty of time to watch it, and lots of options are on the table.  Hopefully, we actually do get the cold in here.  That's always the first step, IMO.

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2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Yup, that is true about the mountains. I'm not sold on much of an overrunning event if the flow turns out like the one shown above.  But we have plenty of time to watch it, and lots of options are on the table.  Hopefully, we actually do get the cold in here.  That's always the first step, IMO.

If the cold push is overdone, we might be looking good!

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3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Yup, that is true about the mountains. I'm not sold on much of an overrunning event if the flow turns out like the one shown above.  But we have plenty of time to watch it, and lots of options are on the table.  Hopefully, we actually do get the cold in here.  That's always the first step, IMO.

That would be a pattern that could provide a clipper type system. Models would not see these fast moving lows until within 5 days. So yes, lets get the cold air in here and see what happens.

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