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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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Speaking of miller B's, does anyone recall a miller B that stayed pure snow in the triad,triangle region of NC. I know it's possible in mtns. Guess if the coastal transfer happens south of us it's increases our chances, but those seem to be famous for carolina split and we get dryslotted. majority of transfers happen between obx and dellmarva. miller b almost always means mix precip or just plain ice frzng rain.

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1 hour ago, pcbjr said:

540 line needs to come south to look really good      IMHO

That's not the 500-1000mb thickness 540 line.... that's the 500mb height 540 line. Big difference..... the 500mb height 540 line would put 850mb temps somewhere around -15C. It can be somewhat misleading when you're looking at heights vs. thicknesses.

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9 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

That's not the 500-1000mb thickness 540 line.... that's the 500mb height 540 line. Big difference..... the 500mb height 540 line would put 850mb temps somewhere around -15C. It can be somewhat misleading when you're looking at heights vs. thicknesses.

so you disagree that the 540 line further south on that map would not be a good thing?

 

i know what i'm looking at - was just commenting

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Just now, pcbjr said:

so you disagree that the 540 line further south on that map would be a good thing?

 

i know what i'm looking at - was just commenting

No, the farther south the better. I was just pointing out that we did not need it that cold to snow. It's a different 540 line. It's not the rain/snow line.

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33 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

so you disagree that the 540 line further south on that map would not be a good thing?

 

i know what i'm looking at - was just commenting

its all cool and I understand that! just pointing something out - shoulda been a bit more specific i guess, but hey, it's sunday and too warm for dec - ergo, the posting part of the brain may not be running on all 8 cylinders today     LOL

guess to sum it up - that line seems awfully zonal, which may or may not be a concern, but I'd rather see a good dig at that height ... but then again - it's only a sunday afternoon thought  :huh:

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Y'all check out the afternoon AFD from GSP!!!?? I think you will find it extremely tittilating, to say the least!!!

Just maybe we could have something to track.

Here's GSP:

The next problem will be the very end of the weekend potential
precipitation issue. The GFS is on the dry side, while the European
model want to spin up a potential wintry mess Sunday into Monday.
At this juncture we have followed our neighbors, and WPC, with
chance POPS Sunday into Monday. Precipitation types could be a
troubling, but this far out we kept it rain or snow.

 

Here's RAH:

Otherwise, will be closely watching the pattern evolution late next
weekend into the early part of the following week, as a couple weak
short waves embedded in broad cyclonic flow are progged in the
models to move across the eastern US during that time.

 

 

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