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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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9 minutes ago, packbacker said:

LOL...you know how it is here, we will have to wait for our one sleet event.  Hoping sometime in January.  I think I called for 1.8" of snow/sleet for RDU in the snowfall contest thread, still feel good about that.  

Well I hope we get a few good snow storms this year. But 2" of sleet is actually pretty significant; basically like 6" of snow compressed down to 2". RDU has had some very memorable sleet events. Two in particular 1) the 1996 6" sleet storm (sleeted for 14 hours) 2) the storm in the 80s that dropped 8" of sleet. From all my reading I think that's a world record. Give me any one of those storms again and I'll call this winter a win.

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20 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

there is very little difference for most of SC/NC/GA precip total wise between the cold 06Z run and the warmer 12Z run 

You are basically right about that, but the 12z run it gives my area in SC 1 inch more rain than 6z. A little less CAD with the early week system brings more rain into upstate SC.

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10 minutes ago, packbacker said:

I am a buyer of the day 8 Euro.  

Going from no storm and no cold, to a trailing 1034 high and a suppressed storm track with 10-15" swath over VA....gotta love it.

People need to temper expectations here, because of the cold models will keep spitting out the possibility of a suppressed storm track. We'll see if the Euro ENS support this run, the 00z EPS had cold and dry same time period with a cutter by Day 10 - much more believable. Kind of a snow denier before the 15th, for now.

Loving the active forum, keep posting guys - even if the models don't show snow!

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Not a single Euro ensemble member supports what the 12z showed. 0/51 including the control. No lows anywhere close. Supports high pressure on east coast with cutter to the lakes or simply inland late which would most likely be a upstate NY snowfall. Just in case anyone was hoping...

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22 minutes ago, Jon said:

Not a single Euro ensemble member supports what the 12z showed. 0/51 including the control. No lows anywhere close. Supports high pressure on east coast with cutter to the lakes or simply inland late which would most likely be a upstate NY snowfall. Just in case anyone was hoping...

Nah, we're not interested in this sort of nonsense. Thanks though. ;):lol:

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Via Eric Webb (webberweather on twitter)

Large-scale pattern after next week is conducive for a Miller B event in NC w/ high-lat north pacific blocking & deep trough ~ GLs/SE Canada

The large-scale pattern induces favorable synoptic features that favor overrunning. 5-9 day z500 vs NC Miller B events

2b2943c3cc440be15424149d26747c8b.jpg
200ae6cabc85bd4381b3a082ffe0bf8b.jpg

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