Cold Rain Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 1 hour ago, packbacker said: Maybe it will show up on today's runs :-) The GFS is alone on that ridge spike but fun to look at. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 21 minutes ago, jshetley said: It looked good to me. I'll take warm and wet anytime over cold and dry. Hopefully this run is right. there is very little difference for most of SC/NC/GA precip total wise between the cold 06Z run and the warmer 12Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 30 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: +1 LOL...you know how it is here, we will have to wait for our one sleet event. Hoping sometime in January. I think I called for 1.8" of snow/sleet for RDU in the snowfall contest thread, still feel good about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 9 minutes ago, packbacker said: LOL...you know how it is here, we will have to wait for our one sleet event. Hoping sometime in January. I think I called for 1.8" of snow/sleet for RDU in the snowfall contest thread, still feel good about that. Well I hope we get a few good snow storms this year. But 2" of sleet is actually pretty significant; basically like 6" of snow compressed down to 2". RDU has had some very memorable sleet events. Two in particular 1) the 1996 6" sleet storm (sleeted for 14 hours) 2) the storm in the 80s that dropped 8" of sleet. From all my reading I think that's a world record. Give me any one of those storms again and I'll call this winter a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 20 minutes ago, downeastnc said: there is very little difference for most of SC/NC/GA precip total wise between the cold 06Z run and the warmer 12Z run You are basically right about that, but the 12z run it gives my area in SC 1 inch more rain than 6z. A little less CAD with the early week system brings more rain into upstate SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, jshetley said: You are basically right about that, but the 12z run it gives my area in SC 1 inch more rain than 6z. A little less CAD with the early week system brings more rain into upstate SC. Models often underestimate the power of the wedge! Just wait till we get in NAM range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 I am a buyer of the day 8 Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: I am a buyer of the day 8 Euro. Sold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: I am a buyer of the day 8 Euro. I wish the trough could dig deeper. If it was 150-200 miles more south, it would be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthGaWinter Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Get that low a little more south and we have an early Christmas present! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 I am a buyer of the day 8 Euro. do is the MA Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: I am a buyer of the day 8 Euro. Going from no storm and no cold, to a trailing 1034 high and a suppressed storm track with 10-15" swath over VA....gotta love it. People need to temper expectations here, because of the cold models will keep spitting out the possibility of a suppressed storm track. We'll see if the Euro ENS support this run, the 00z EPS had cold and dry same time period with a cutter by Day 10 - much more believable. Kind of a snow denier before the 15th, for now. Loving the active forum, keep posting guys - even if the models don't show snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 12Z was still better than anything in December last year. Friday and Saturday's temp are colder than anything in December we've had in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 8 minutes ago, NorthGaWinter said: Get that low a little more south and we have an early Christmas present! Coal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 22 minutes ago, Jon said: Loving the active forum, keep posting guys - even if the models don't show snow! Jon - Love your eternal optimism! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 This December already FEELS better than last year. Enjoying this cold and cloudy day today while blowing the leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 12z Euro at the end of the run with a nice mid Dec arctic High moving down with -30C 850's poised to move into MT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Yeah, the 12z GFS looked ugly in the long range, but keep in mind what the GFS was showing at the end of its 06z run... 06z: 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 ^ 29 vs 68 ????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 I hope Shetley is happy. Now I am going to have to explain to my little boy that there won't be a White Christmas after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Not a single Euro ensemble member supports what the 12z showed. 0/51 including the control. No lows anywhere close. Supports high pressure on east coast with cutter to the lakes or simply inland late which would most likely be a upstate NY snowfall. Just in case anyone was hoping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 22 minutes ago, Jon said: Not a single Euro ensemble member supports what the 12z showed. 0/51 including the control. No lows anywhere close. Supports high pressure on east coast with cutter to the lakes or simply inland late which would most likely be a upstate NY snowfall. Just in case anyone was hoping... Nah, we're not interested in this sort of nonsense. Thanks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 18z looks better in the silly range. We can go with that for now and forget the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 14 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 18z looks better in the silly range. We can go with that for now and forget the 12z Yep it looks like it could have a fantasy sleet storm for pack at day 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherfan2 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 I usually hate it when the GFS shows fantasy storms. One run it shows it, next run it says what fantasy storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Weatherfan2 said: I usually hate it when the GFS shows fantasy storms. One run it shows it, next run it says what fantasy storm? Wow, I feel like I have heard this song before. The older I get, the more things stay the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherfan2 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 When was the last time the GFS even predicted a winter storm from fantasy range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 9 minutes ago, Weatherfan2 said: When was the last time the GFS even predicted a winter storm from fantasy range? Christmas 2010, maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Anything outside of five days other than a hostile pattern is a fantasy. We need to get a fantasy good pattern inside 5 days before even remotely taking a fantasy snowstorm seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Via Eric Webb (webberweather on twitter)Large-scale pattern after next week is conducive for a Miller B event in NC w/ high-lat north pacific blocking & deep trough ~ GLs/SE CanadaThe large-scale pattern induces favorable synoptic features that favor overrunning. 5-9 day z500 vs NC Miller B events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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