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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

Jburnsville. We moved back in the spring, Flinthill/ Sophia. We had to increase the square footage to help take care of my parents. Need to update my location. Also figured I'd jump in Wilkesboro corner,stir the pot and shake up the neigjborhood till the weather gets more interesting.

lol!

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30 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Jburnsville. We moved back in the spring, Flinthill/ Sophia. We had to increase the square footage to help take care of my parents. Need to update my location. Also figured I'd jump in Wilkesboro corner,stir the pot and shake up the neigjborhood till the weather gets more interesting.

 

That explains the wide difference in forecasts.  You're at least 5 miles from me.  Over here this week is about normal and we are headed for a golfers winter.

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46 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Plenty of cold air up in Canada to tap into on the 12z.

We always need help from the Pac if we want the Cold to attack: Doing my drive-by 12z model glance and if we can get some ridging out west then cards are on the table to get some pipe busting cold 2cnd-3rd week of Dec. See signs of it so we'll see. But atleast it looks highly favorable will avg out Bn the next 15 days. Question is by how much could be less than a degree-average or by 2-4. Beats last December thats for sure! And for me average is still winter Golf weather here in the SE so long as theres no wind involved.

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Can we make a run at December 1989? I remember RDU runing below normal I beleive like 23 straight days if I'm not mistaken. I can't get the climate data pulled up for this month mainly because the tabs have shifted around and my no-tech tail can't get it off the ole cell phone. Anyway lot of SE NC guys will remeber that month, it was the big Wilmington Christmas Snow. I was trying to go back and verify (it had to be December of 89, possibly 88 or even 90), that as far east as RWI there where like 3 maybe 4 frozen precip events that month. if I could recollect the right year I was wondering if we where expierencing some of the same tc's in a weak LA nina etc. Anybody bored or remember feel free to chime in.

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20 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Can we make a run at December 1989? I remember RDU runing below normal I beleive like 23 straight days if I'm not mistaken. I can't get the climate data pulled up for this month mainly because the tabs have shifted around and my no-tech tail can't get it off the ole cell phone. Anyway lot of SE NC guys will remeber that month, it was the big Wilmington Christmas Snow. I was trying to go back and verify (it had to be December of 89, possibly 88 or even 90), that as far east as RWI there where like 3 maybe 4 frozen precip events that month. if I could recollect the right year I was wondering if we where expierencing some of the same tc's in a weak LA nina etc. Anybody bored or remember feel free to chime in.

Yeah NC it was Dec 1989.  This is a good example of what I was referring to in the other thread.  NE Pacific ridging reaching poleward in the Dec 1989 map below.  That's a strong cross polar look with the cold coming out of Siberia, over the pole, then east of the Rockies.  We don't have that kind of look this go around.

6tl2so.gif

24exf7k.gif

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

Yeah NC it was Dec 1989.  This is a good example of what I was referring to in the other thread.  NE Pacific ridging reaching poleward in the Dec 1989 map below.  That's a strong cross polar look with the cold coming out of Siberia, over the pole, then east of the Rockies.

6tl2so.gif

24exf7k.gif

Dang I bet that was one heck of a December . 

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8 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Dang I bet that was one heck of a December . 

Yeah it was as far as cold goes, but not as much winter precip as you might think. The big event of the month was from I-95 and east all the way to the coast right before Christmas when some spots got close to 20 inches of snow. The rest of that winter was a complete reversal, and was warm and wet. Actually very wet in Feb and March. Basically spring showed up in mid January after that very cold Dec.

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Looking at the 6z GFS, there's no fantasy snow storms but the pattern does have some potential. Plenty of cold air pushes into the SE and then plenty of cold to our north with storms that push through or just to the west. This is where CAD can save the day. Models never portray these setups properly in the LR (...if at all). Not trying to wish-cast something just saying we may need to keep an eye on the next couple of weeks. 

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10 hours ago, griteater said:

Yeah NC it was Dec 1989.  This is a good example of what I was referring to in the other thread.  NE Pacific ridging reaching poleward in the Dec 1989 map below.  That's a strong cross polar look with the cold coming out of Siberia, over the pole, then east of the Rockies.  We don't have that kind of look this go around.

6tl2so.gif

24exf7k.gif

I remember that snowfall around Christmas. I was living in Camden County and had just started my emergency services career that August after getting out of the Coast Guard in May. We had two elderly men die during that storm. One had a heart attack in the snow and died of a combination of hypothermia and the cardiac event. The second gentleman died of exposure because he ran out of heating oil and couldn't heat his home. His home was an old balloon construction farmhouse with zero insulation. I remember it well. It was the first time I had ever seen someone deceased, let alone two people. We had 6" of snow in the lower part of the county and about 2" at the northern end of the county at the Chesapeake, Virginia line. Now 27 years later I'm retiring. Time to let the young bucks eat smoke, fight fire, start IV's, and perform ALS. It would be nice to see another Christmas snow. The last one here was Christmas 2010. The funny thing about snowfall and emergency services is that for some reason, people always seem to call 911 for the most inane and innocuous stuff. Cat scratches, splinters, headaches... crazy. I think it's from being cooped up and nowhere to go. It's not just the indigent or elderly either. It's all spectrums of the population.

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Maybe I am greedy but I don't think we want 89-90 again.  If I remember right, it was a warm fall and I cut grass on Thanksgiving eve just before we got about 6 inches of snow.  It was so cold that dec that that TG snow still had about 80% of the ground covered at Christmas but it warmed up before new years and we did not have any winter after that at all.  I can see if you got Christmas snow that year it was a super year but man it was a long not cold winter after that.

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53 minutes ago, nomanslandva said:

Maybe I am greedy but I don't think we want 89-90 again.  If I remember right, it was a warm fall and I cut grass on Thanksgiving eve just before we got about 6 inches of snow.  It was so cold that dec that that TG snow still had about 80% of the ground covered at Christmas but it warmed up before new years and we did not have any winter after that at all.  I can see if you got Christmas snow that year it was a super year but man it was a long not cold winter after that.

Yep it was as if someone flipped a light switch from Dec to January and the rest of winter in 1989-90. Like light and day. 

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1 hour ago, nomanslandva said:

Maybe I am greedy but I don't think we want 89-90 again.  If I remember right, it was a warm fall and I cut grass on Thanksgiving eve just before we got about 6 inches of snow.  It was so cold that dec that that TG snow still had about 80% of the ground covered at Christmas but it warmed up before new years and we did not have any winter after that at all.  I can see if you got Christmas snow that year it was a super year but man it was a long not cold winter after that.

Sounds like a great winter to me

 

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I would say the strat PV is going to try a quick and rapid recovery in the next 7-10 days or so.Then a fairly strong wave 1 and wave 2 double team heat flux on it as the Euro shows warming around then.Also the poleward motion forecast looks better so it should be more effective moving to 60N.

Just watching for a split or a displacement,if that happens zonal winds will respond and the AO should as well.We'll see.

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