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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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1 hour ago, NWNC2015 said:

Pass.

These light wintry events to rain can bring more frozen precip than to most places in the S/E all winter. Bares watching for the climo areas of north-east Georgia, NC mountains, northern NC foothills, VA border counties, et cetera. Need it colder.

 

 

That's essentially out of the realm of possibility given the modeled pattern. Need it colder is an understatement. Did you even try to look at the 850mb temperatures? The primary low west of the apps with the 850 0c line above the Great Lakes with mid 30's at the surface and moisture overwhelming the column isn't going to give you anything but rain in the areas you mentioned.

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18 minutes ago, Jon said:

That's essentially out of the realm of possibility given the modeled pattern. Need it colder is an understatement. Did you even try to look at the 850mb temperatures? The primary low west of the apps with the 850 0c line above the Great Lakes with mid 30's at the surface and moisture overwhelming the column isn't going to give you anything but rain in the areas you mentioned.

CAD events tend to trend colder as time draws closer. Mid December? Maybe not but it does need to be watched in the aforementioned favored areas. The 850 0c line does not need to be close to give Frozen precip at the surface. Verbatim, a cold rain. We'll see how it plays out. One of many opportunities. 

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36 minutes ago, Jon said:

That's essentially out of the realm of possibility given the modeled pattern. Need it colder is an understatement. Did you even try to look at the 850mb temperatures? The primary low west of the apps with the 850 0c line above the Great Lakes with mid 30's at the surface and moisture overwhelming the column isn't going to give you anything but rain in the areas you mentioned.

Seriously? lol if that was true it wouldn't be showing pockets of 6-10" and a snowline out to Yadkin County. It can certainly sleet snow ping like hell before going to rain in the CAD areas in this setup. Could come down to a matter of timing. 1 degree isn't too much to ask for the blue ridge outside of the mountains?

It's within the possibility at the onset...I never said throughout. Many areas on the GFS cool down when the rain moves in the north-west Piedmont...I see several 33-35 readings which is impressive since it does not pick up cold dry air entrapped on the eastern side of the mountains (Hickory, Wilkesboro, Mount Airy)...like the EURO can do.

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Shoot I'll take that storm just the way it is. We need the rain way more than snow here in WNC. I would take a good southern soaking system over a huge snowstorm for the next 2 to 3 weeks really. I'm glad to finally see multiple rain events coming up. Winter weather will come. We need rain now and then some.

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CAD events tend to trend colder as time draws closer. Mid December? Maybe not but it does need to be watched in the aforementioned favored areas. The 850 0c line does not need to be close to give Frozen precip at the surface. Verbatim, a cold rain. We'll see how it plays out. One of many opportunities. 


Retreating highs are never a good thing, give me a classic CAD sig and I'll start watching it.
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Seriously? lol if that was true it wouldn't be showing pockets of 6-10" and a snowline out to Yadkin County. It can certainly sleet snow ping like hell before going to rain in the CAD areas in this setup. Could come down to a matter of timing. 1 degree isn't too much to ask for the blue ridge outside of the mountains?

It's within the possibility at the onset...I never said throughout. Many areas on the GFS cool down when the rain moves in the north-west Piedmont...I see several 33-35 readings which is impressive since it does not pick up cold dry air entrapped on the eastern side of the mountains (Hickory, Wilkesboro, Mount Airy)...like the EURO can do.


Yes, seriously lol. At onset - you said it! Retreating high and moisture overwhelming the column, no one will even notice frozen was there. I hope it works out.
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18z GFS Ensemble was a good run for cold in the extended range.  Along with Bering Sea ridging, it has ridging develop in the NE Pacific off the PNW and British Columbia coasts.  Problem is, the Euro and Canadian ensembles keep more troughing in the NE Pac.  Normal to slightly below normal temps on Euro Ens...classic -PNA and above normal temps on Canadian Ens

2cd92s1.gif

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EURO will be within range the next run or two based on speed of the system...0z GFS shows the uncertainty of creating weird loops and holes in the 552mb line along the dry s/e slopes of the blue ridge into the northern foothills/western Piedmont. Event time is a little after hour 204 currently. .on the fastest guidance.

The purple line I drew is the hail merry line if the perfect timing exists and evap cooling occurs for a mixed shower or two before all rain. N/E Georgia and Upstate SC really needs timing on their side or that will flop, south-west NC is likely too warm w/ WAA, but further north-east chances rise slightly where the GFS depicts the blue.

15241209_129083524242023_298960094698399

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Some said it was out of the realm of possibility...impossible...wizardry even. Pink actually expands much further south-east in later frames for most of the Piedmont.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_36.png&key=05510f4c8c43d86037dba71da40138db6c6bb97c4cbacee00a36311d663f94cc

Some say the GEM has a cold bias. Some also say the image you posted above has what I was requesting from the GFS run in order for me to put more trust in it:

1) Classic CAD signature

2)1035 high to the north that stays the entire time (not retreating like the poor high on the GFS)

3) low suppressed/east of the apps

Problem is I don't believe the GEM, that low track isn't supported by other modeling that I can see and I don't believe the cold modeled. GFS is more believable and again, cold rain. Euro has a low headed to the Great Lakes.

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4 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

The PNA, AO, and NAO look horrible in the LR from yesterdays runs. But the EPO does go negative. A few years back we had the same setup and the EPO overwhelmed everything else and we ended up with a cold pattern. Not saying it will do so now but I wouldn't get fixated on just the PNA, AO and NAO.

 

   

That blistering stretch in January '14 was the coldest I can remember. Not often do you reach -3F with four inches of snow on the ground in a Central AL. 

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1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said:

Euro continues to phase the late week system and send it to the lakes. this should produce another significant rain event along with some upslope snow behind the system . 

Looks like 4 systems that offer rain opportunities (especially in the fire areas) between tonight through end of next week on the Euro Ensembles coming out now.  It's a weakly negative PNA and NAO repeating pattern that goes warm up, rain chance, cool down.  Turns a little colder in time.  Scandinavian and Bering Strait ridging meeting at the pole.  Curious to see where tonight's Euro Weeklies might take that going forward. 

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Euro Weeklies

Week 2: Below normal temps over most of the country, especially the northern 1/2

Week 3: Below normal temps over most of the country except S Central and SW states.  West AK Ridge.  Weak east based -NAO

Week 4: Cool in the east, Warm in the west.  Mixed signals with -NAO, but low/trough over Alaska

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