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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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Actually coast to coast cold with Canada in the freezer. Lol huge change in today's 12z suite. I believe the EPO is driving this.



if you loop the height anomaly on the 12z gfs you can see a piece of the Ridge near alaska break off and head towards the poll. makes a huge difference

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Agree if -EPO can materialize we can be in business.  But the AO NAO is a concern.  Nothing would slow down an develop so we end up cold dry and then warm wet.  I can see some wedge scenarios at least.  Upper SE and MA would be happy.  I just want a cold Xmas week.  I deserve that...we all do.  Last year was just ugly.

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13 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Another op run and it's back to toasty warm.  This will probably see saw until we settle on a solution. Who thinks it will be the cold one?  Again we shall see.  

The only model tool I use for general LR pattern and pattern progression is the ens mean, primarily EPS/GEFS h5 heights/anomalies. I find it very useful. Looking at each op run really is an exercise in futility.

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Just took a look at the 6z GFS and it's not a great pattern for winter storms in the SE; but there is potential. in the LR there will be some cold/dry air to our north and west. This would help in damming setups, in which the models would have difficulty depicting (in the LR). So in short, I would like to see less SE ridging but it's still something to monitor for short term mischief (...in the LR).   

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This morning indices look like this. The AO looks to go positive and maybe significantly positive which would be awful news for cold in the East, the NAO is pretty spread out. It looks to stay primarily negative but only slightly,  and the pna is of course taking a nose dive to negative territory. All in all pretty much what we have been use too lol!

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Hopefully the 12z GFS is wrong on temps. That's too cold for midwinter, much less early Dec. Thankfully that cold air on this run stays from KY and Tenn on to the north, but it's too close for comfort. We don't need temps below 15 degrees anywhere outside of the mountains all winter long.

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8 minutes ago, jshetley said:

Hopefully the 12z GFS is wrong on temps. That's too cold for midwinter, much less early Dec. Thankfully that cold air on this run stays from KY and Tenn on to the north, but it's too close for comfort. We don't need temps below 15 degrees anywhere outside of the mountains all winter long.

The colder the better. completely kill everything off.

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44 minutes ago, jshetley said:

Hopefully the 12z GFS is wrong on temps. That's too cold for midwinter, much less early Dec. Thankfully that cold air on this run stays from KY and Tenn on to the north, but it's too close for comfort. We don't need temps below 15 degrees anywhere outside of the mountains all winter long.

It's good to have the cold air just to our North! Makes for good CAD events, the more the merrier! I'm ready for some single digits again! Been a few years at GSP!!

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

It's good to have the cold air just to our North! Makes for good CAD events, the more the merrier! I'm ready for some single digits again! Been a few years at GSP!! Agreed, the colder the better. Im ready for the teens and single digits.

 

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iIfcGMh.gif

 

8-10 Day is pretty much a lock with the Aleutian ridge in place...details can change but that feature should hold, given current agreement and climo as Aleutian ridges are featured early in weak La Nina winters.

The models have been hinting on a west coast trough for a while now, and we'll have to wait for the cold to bleed east. We're seeing some interesting operational runs of the GFS that pump up the Siberian high (as stormcatt points out) with a -EPO and east-based block (roughly) over the top essentially blocking in the cold air that gets set up in Canada as a result of the Aleutian ridge - leading to a large outbreak of cold across the eastern US. Wild run and of course the GEFS doesn't agree, but interesting to see.

The indices are a wreck and they should be, given the Aleutian ridge we aren't miraculously going to see a +PNA forecast show up on the 10 day modeling, and at this point it looks like we're going to have to wait until the last half of Dec for a -AO/-NAO combo, shall it return. That's no big deal though, as hopefully by the last 10 days of Dec we have some cold in place to block and get some nice flow going...

We'll see what the Weeklies show tomorrow, but nothing to be alarmed about as of yet...typical progression of the initial season in Weak La Ninas, IMO.

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4 hours ago, Stormcatt said:

forget any systems , the best part do the 12z gfs is the high building over Siberia
 

Pass.

These light wintry events to rain can bring more frozen precip than to most places in the S/E all winter. Bares watching for the climo areas of north-east Georgia, NC mountains, northern NC foothills, VA border counties, et cetera. Need it colder.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_36.png

 

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Pass.

These light wintry events to rain can bring more frozen precip than to most places in the S/E all winter. Bares watching for the climo areas of north-east Georgia, NC mountains, northern NC foothills, VA border counties, et cetera. Need it colder.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_36.png&key=ea275778e17793e6cfc3ad658ca79e9ad184f95b47986bc316f0fba11d4f53fe

 




if you get a positive height field like that over Siberia look out. I would take that over a light event especially right now as we head into December

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1 hour ago, NWNC2015 said:

Pass.

These light wintry events to rain can bring more frozen precip than to most places in the S/E all winter. Bares watching for the climo areas of north-east Georgia, NC mountains, northern NC foothills, VA border counties, et cetera. Need it colder.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_36.png

 

Get use to this : moisture chasing cold

need blocking to lock in the highs, oh yeah,and we need cold! Other than that and being about a 14 day op run, it's gonna be close

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