Met1985 Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 It's not perfect but no blow torch. One run but just shows you the day to day runs differ a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Actually coast to coast cold with Canada in the freezer. Lol huge change in today's 12z suite. I believe the EPO is driving this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Actually coast to coast cold with Canada in the freezer. Lol huge change in today's 12z suite. I believe the EPO is driving this.if you loop the height anomaly on the 12z gfs you can see a piece of the Ridge near alaska break off and head towards the poll. makes a huge difference Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Good run on the GFS today with more widespread precip,,solid 2''+ spreading out in parts of the piedmont now. UKMET and Euro also coming in colder for days 6-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 What year is it where you are?Hard to say. It's been a crazy year. Maybe 1828?Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 28 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Hard to say. It's been a crazy year. Maybe 1828? No politics on the weather side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Agree if -EPO can materialize we can be in business. But the AO NAO is a concern. Nothing would slow down an develop so we end up cold dry and then warm wet. I can see some wedge scenarios at least. Upper SE and MA would be happy. I just want a cold Xmas week. I deserve that...we all do. Last year was just ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Another op run and it's back to toasty warm. This will probably see saw until we settle on a solution. Who thinks it will be the cold one? Again we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
accu35 Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 I try not to put much in stock with every model run. The models will shuffle around but the over all pattern is what to look at. The pattern is wet, which is good and there is cold coming just need to be patient untill it progresses east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 13 hours ago, BristowWx said: Another op run and it's back to toasty warm. This will probably see saw until we settle on a solution. Who thinks it will be the cold one? Again we shall see. The only model tool I use for general LR pattern and pattern progression is the ens mean, primarily EPS/GEFS h5 heights/anomalies. I find it very useful. Looking at each op run really is an exercise in futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Just took a look at the 6z GFS and it's not a great pattern for winter storms in the SE; but there is potential. in the LR there will be some cold/dry air to our north and west. This would help in damming setups, in which the models would have difficulty depicting (in the LR). So in short, I would like to see less SE ridging but it's still something to monitor for short term mischief (...in the LR). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 This morning indices look like this. The AO looks to go positive and maybe significantly positive which would be awful news for cold in the East, the NAO is pretty spread out. It looks to stay primarily negative but only slightly, and the pna is of course taking a nose dive to negative territory. All in all pretty much what we have been use too lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Lol the 12z says I'm going to throw a bone to all the weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 36 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Lol the 12z says I'm going to throw a bone to all the weenies! Got to admit it keeps things interesting. Actually thinking this may happen down the road but not this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Hopefully the 12z GFS is wrong on temps. That's too cold for midwinter, much less early Dec. Thankfully that cold air on this run stays from KY and Tenn on to the north, but it's too close for comfort. We don't need temps below 15 degrees anywhere outside of the mountains all winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 29 minutes ago, PisgahNCWeather said: Got to admit it keeps things interesting. Actually thinking this may happen down the road but not this early. Yeah maybe towards the end of the month if the epo can chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 8 minutes ago, jshetley said: Hopefully the 12z GFS is wrong on temps. That's too cold for midwinter, much less early Dec. Thankfully that cold air on this run stays from KY and Tenn on to the north, but it's too close for comfort. We don't need temps below 15 degrees anywhere outside of the mountains all winter long. The colder the better. completely kill everything off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 27, 2016 Author Share Posted November 27, 2016 12z gfs hour 210 is interesting...showing 33 nearby...likely some sub-freezing in the foothills.....but rates are extremely heavy likely a quick ice slush to rain event unless it can trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 forget any systems , the best part do the 12z gfs is the high building over Siberia Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 44 minutes ago, jshetley said: Hopefully the 12z GFS is wrong on temps. That's too cold for midwinter, much less early Dec. Thankfully that cold air on this run stays from KY and Tenn on to the north, but it's too close for comfort. We don't need temps below 15 degrees anywhere outside of the mountains all winter long. It's good to have the cold air just to our North! Makes for good CAD events, the more the merrier! I'm ready for some single digits again! Been a few years at GSP!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
accu35 Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: It's good to have the cold air just to our North! Makes for good CAD events, the more the merrier! I'm ready for some single digits again! Been a few years at GSP!! Agreed, the colder the better. Im ready for the teens and single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 8-10 Day is pretty much a lock with the Aleutian ridge in place...details can change but that feature should hold, given current agreement and climo as Aleutian ridges are featured early in weak La Nina winters. The models have been hinting on a west coast trough for a while now, and we'll have to wait for the cold to bleed east. We're seeing some interesting operational runs of the GFS that pump up the Siberian high (as stormcatt points out) with a -EPO and east-based block (roughly) over the top essentially blocking in the cold air that gets set up in Canada as a result of the Aleutian ridge - leading to a large outbreak of cold across the eastern US. Wild run and of course the GEFS doesn't agree, but interesting to see. The indices are a wreck and they should be, given the Aleutian ridge we aren't miraculously going to see a +PNA forecast show up on the 10 day modeling, and at this point it looks like we're going to have to wait until the last half of Dec for a -AO/-NAO combo, shall it return. That's no big deal though, as hopefully by the last 10 days of Dec we have some cold in place to block and get some nice flow going... We'll see what the Weeklies show tomorrow, but nothing to be alarmed about as of yet...typical progression of the initial season in Weak La Ninas, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 27, 2016 Author Share Posted November 27, 2016 4 hours ago, Stormcatt said: forget any systems , the best part do the 12z gfs is the high building over Siberia Pass. These light wintry events to rain can bring more frozen precip than to most places in the S/E all winter. Bares watching for the climo areas of north-east Georgia, NC mountains, northern NC foothills, VA border counties, et cetera. Need it colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Pass. These light wintry events to rain can bring more frozen precip than to most places in the S/E all winter. Bares watching for the climo areas of north-east Georgia, NC mountains, northern NC foothills, VA border counties, et cetera. Need it colder. if you get a positive height field like that over Siberia look out. I would take that over a light event especially right now as we head into December Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 28, 2016 Author Share Posted November 28, 2016 51 minutes ago, Stormcatt said: if you get a positive height field like that over Siberia look out. I would take that over a light event especially right now as we head into December most here will take actual winter weather over looks. i dont want big cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 1 hour ago, NWNC2015 said: Pass. These light wintry events to rain can bring more frozen precip than to most places in the S/E all winter. Bares watching for the climo areas of north-east Georgia, NC mountains, northern NC foothills, VA border counties, et cetera. Need it colder. Get use to this : moisture chasing cold need blocking to lock in the highs, oh yeah,and we need cold! Other than that and being about a 14 day op run, it's gonna be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 most here will take actual winter weather over looks. i dont want big coldI'd rather have a cold source vs hoping marginal cold catches moisture . get the cold first then worry about a system Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 at the risk of getting a banhammer, lock that in as a snow or ice event, ill have to travel from danville to lynchburg to meet with my surgeon prior to my hip replacement on 12/8 so no doubt it will have to be the first time i drive in winter weather in 7 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 28, 2016 Author Share Posted November 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Get use to this : moisture chasing cold need blocking to lock in the highs, oh yeah,and we need cold! Other than that and being about a 14 day op run, it's gonna be close nope. its day8/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, Stormcatt said: I'd rather have a cold source vs hoping marginal cold catches moisture . get the cold first then worry about a system Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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