Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion

[pcbjr]

30 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

If if the 18z where to verify then there could be record highs set the first week in December. 

And I was getting 18Z posts last night about very very cold down here ... grain of salt, folks!

[Snowless in Carrollton]

What are the chances of this December being warmer than last December ? Last December was +12 in Atlanta.

[pcbjr]

2 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

What are the chances of this December being warmer than last December ? Last December was +12 for Atlanta with temps.

Pretty good; wouldn't go bet the farm, but pretty good   

[Snowless in Carrollton]

1 minute ago, pcbjr said:

Pretty good; wouldn't go bet the farm, but pretty good   

Maybe we could have +20 for Atlanta this December. That would be fun.

[Jonathan]

FWIW, 18z GEFS is much cooler (not *cold* but BN nonetheless) than the OP through the end of the run. *shrugs*

[Met1985]

11 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

And I was getting 18Z posts last night about very very cold down here ... grain of salt, folks!

Yep pretty  much. Huge swings in 24 hours on the models. A  lot of different looks and a lot for the models to take with the current shake up.

[accu35]

Hello folks, I say that alot of us will be bless to have some welcome rain soon. I think for as cold, everything should work out eventually. I'm trying not to be discouraged on todays model run, as long as we can have our winter threat  or 2 then we should be good

[griteater]

6 hours ago, Stormcatt said:

the more concerning trend is the Ridge west of Alaska looks to set up too far West and burry troughs in the west and screw us all . This idea has ensemble support

Only thing keeping this from being a big torch pattern in the SE is the 50/50 low anomaly off the coast of Maine.

[packbacker]

12 minutes ago, griteater said:

Only thing keeping this from being a big torch pattern in the SE is the 50/50 low anomaly off the coast of Maine.

Nothing like an Atlantic block...very 2010'ish.  Retro that PAC low a little we get Boxing Day part deux.  

 

[jburns]

1 hour ago, calculus1 said:

 

Now that's some long range forecasting, folks. 2106?!



 

 

 

What year is it where you are?

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

2 hours ago, calculus1 said:

 

 

Now that's some long range forecasting, folks. 2106?!



Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk
 

 

That's only 90 years from now... I don' think any of us will be around to see how advanced forecasting will have become by then. However, it is fun to speculate.

[Jon]

CFSv2 daily run is cold, again. It keeps flipping warm/cold but the negative anomalies on our side of the globe is a good thing, remember the mega ridge over Canada last year? Having a good snow pack and cold in Canada can help more than some probably realize.

[jburns]

17 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

That's only 90 years from now... I don' think any of us will be around to see how advanced forecasting will have become by then. However, it is fun to speculate.

 

I'll be here. I'll only be 159.

[Isopycnic]

Just now, jburns said:

I'll be here. I'll only be 159.

Can we get rid of wilkesbrodud by then? 

[Jon]

6 hours ago, BristowWx said:

End of the 18z run is raging warm with same old pattern.  Interesting.  Let's see how this plays out.

 

6 hours ago, Met1985 said:

If if the 18z where to verify then there could be record highs set the first week in December. 

 

6 hours ago, BristowWx said:

There is nothing in the foreseeable future to bring the cold south.  I think December 2106 will be remembered for its warmth.  All of the guidance that showed favorable blocking has evaporated.  Again we shall see but if it was trending cold it would be cold right now.  It s nearly 60 here near D.C.  Same tomorrow maybe 5F less.  Long range forecasts said we should be looking at winter right now.  Then next week warm again,  rinse repeat.  Who ever is saying cold December is a snake oil salesman.  

 

5 hours ago, pcbjr said:

And I was getting 18Z posts last night about very very cold down here ... grain of salt, folks!

What a difference one run can make when it comes to the 16 day operational GFS

[mackerel_sky]

23 minutes ago, Jon said:

 

 

 

What a difference one run can make when it comes to the 16 day operational GFS

Lots of run to run consistency!!

just liking the wet look for next week! We will worry about cold later!

[Jon]

2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Lots of run to run consistency!!

just liking the wet look for next week! We will worry about cold later!

Nothing like the strat getting rolling at the end of the run... if only.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Yeah, lets just enjoy the deluge of rain next week. We never get any snow or ice down here until at least Dec 15 anyway.

[NWNC2015]

Finally all it took was -40 (and colder) temps in that box shape state (Wyoming?) to ooze east for rain to end as a little wintry precip across the Carolinas around December 11th. Van Denton believes the 17th will feature our first Piedmont snow.....and I still believe we will see a front sided winter before mild periods around Christmas going into January. I think our threat will materialize around the week before Christmas. 

[accu35]

2 hours ago, NWNC2015 said:

Finally all it took was -40 (and colder) temps in that box shape state (Wyoming?) to ooze east for rain to end as a little wintry precip across the Carolinas around December 11th. Van Denton believes the 17th will feature our first Piedmont snow.....and I still believe we will see a front sided winter before mild periods around Christmas going into January. I think our threat will materialize around the week before Christmas. 

Christmas time will still be considered front loaded. The flip side will prob happen second half of jan, but still could be cold.

[Met1985]

The indices keep getting worst. The nao barely looks negative and the ao looks like it will go positive. Our pattern change for December looks to be running on fumes just like this month. Still way early but not  what we want to see heading into the middle of next month.

[Met1985]

9 hours ago, NWNC2015 said:

Finally all it took was -40 (and colder) temps in that box shape state (Wyoming?) to ooze east for rain to end as a little wintry precip across the Carolinas around December 11th. Van Denton believes the 17th will feature our first Piedmont snow.....and I still believe we will see a front sided winter before mild periods around Christmas going into January. I think our threat will materialize around the week before Christmas. 

Nothing you just said makes a bit of since. 

[Cold Rain]

24 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The indices keep getting worst. The nao barely looks negative and the ao looks like it will go positive. Our pattern change for December looks to be running on fumes just like this month. Still way early but not  what we want to see heading into the middle of next month.

This is what I was talking about a few days ago.  Models have been showing a pattern change to colder with -NAOs and stuff in the LR.  They do this every winter.  I don't know what it is about model programming that makes strong blocking so prevalent in the LR.  I wish it would show the opposite.  First of all, it would be more accurate.  Secondly, we wouldn't have as much false hope.

It is for that reason, that I remain skeptical of any real blocking and favorable delivery mechanism for cold into the SE, particularly this year, where we have remained for so long (and continue to remain) in a very unfavorable pattern for cold in the SE.  I'll believe it when we start seeing it inside of 5 days.

[downeastnc]

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

This is what I was talking about a few days ago.  Models have been showing a pattern change to colder with -NAOs and stuff in the LR.  They do this every winter.  I don't know what it is about model programming that makes strong blocking so prevalent in the LR.  I wish it would show the opposite.  First of all, it would be more accurate.  Secondly, we wouldn't have as much false hope.

It is for that reason, that I remain skeptical of any real blocking and favorable delivery mechanism for cold into the SE, particularly this year, where we have remained for so long (and continue to remain) in a very unfavorable pattern for cold in the SE.  I'll believe it when we start seeing it inside of 5 days.

The models wont model it well until it is inside of a 7-10 days, seems like anytime there is a big pattern change the models have it in the long range, lose it in the mid then go back to it in the short.....then again we all know it can be tough to break the ridging over the south central/east US....especially this time of year, but I firmly believe its going to happen. I would rather it hold off and not go until mid to late Dec and lock in through Jan so we are able to tap the coldest climo period, the pattern we are in now is pretty much how winters usually go around here, cool days then a few warm ones with some rain then front/wind then cool again....I actually dont mind it though I wish the warm was a little less warm lol. 

[mackerel_sky]

33 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

This is what I was talking about a few days ago.  Models have been showing a pattern change to colder with -NAOs and stuff in the LR.  They do this every winter.  I don't know what it is about model programming that makes strong blocking so prevalent in the LR.  I wish it would show the opposite.  First of all, it would be more accurate.  Secondly, we wouldn't have as much false hope.

It is for that reason, that I remain skeptical of any real blocking and favorable delivery mechanism for cold into the SE, particularly this year, where we have remained for so long (and continue to remain) in a very unfavorable pattern for cold in the SE.  I'll believe it when we start seeing it inside of 5 days.

All we have is false hope and 3 months of winter left! If we are still looking like this in Feb, we are in trouble

[franklin NCwx]

44 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

This is what I was talking about a few days ago.  Models have been showing a pattern change to colder with -NAOs and stuff in the LR.  They do this every winter.  I don't know what it is about model programming that makes strong blocking so prevalent in the LR.  I wish it would show the opposite.  First of all, it would be more accurate.  Secondly, we wouldn't have as much false hope.

It is for that reason, that I remain skeptical of any real blocking and favorable delivery mechanism for cold into the SE, particularly this year, where we have remained for so long (and continue to remain) in a very unfavorable pattern for cold in the SE.  I'll believe it when we start seeing it inside of 5 days.

Obviously it's rigged!

[Jon]

54 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The indices keep getting worst. The nao barely looks negative and the ao looks like it will go positive. Our pattern change for December looks to be running on fumes just like this month. Still way early but not  what we want to see heading into the middle of next month.

It's not that bad and I'll tell you why I thin that. (Mind you I'm probably the eternal optimist on this board, so bear with me).

The GFS Op can't be trusted. Period. You can it has a clear bias for the -AO and -NAO in the LR (denoted by the grey lines below the blue OBS line) those are all 10-day forecasts under the currently analyzed or observed AO/NAO state (which is negative)

 

So I agree with you they're not looking good, but they are wobbling.

The operationals of both models (GFS/ECMWF) are bouncing around with each run, but as you can see there's more spread in the AO than the NAO as the NAO looks to remain negative until at least Nov 30 (based on the last 48 hours - 12 runs)

As for the GFS Ensemble run which most look at since they're free, they're not to be trusted either. Huge changes run-to-run, which only means the models simply haven't nailed the 5-day much less the 10-day right now. We have some waiting to do until we buy the indices. Even if we get a killer block right now, we just haven't had enough of a pattern change to lock in any cold, so it's likely we really wouldn't notice it anyway. Wait until we get cold on Western Canada spilling into Central US (only a matter of time) then as it transitions east, block it with a -NAO. That's what I want come Dec 10th-ish.

Huge, epic run in the CFSv2.. When I commented on the Nov 23rd run I said with that amount of cold anomalies spilling out of Canada, there's no way we torch on the SE. Now it's looking that way. Still 4 more runs to go before I buy whatever the CFS is putting out for December, but you can't hate this look, no matter who you are.

 

[pcbjr]

3 minutes ago, Jon said:

but you can't hate this look, no matter who you are

... unless perhaps you're in northern most Florida   lol

 

still roootin' for y'all up there

[Met1985]

26 minutes ago, Jon said:

It's not that bad and I'll tell you why I thin that. (Mind you I'm probably the eternal optimist on this board, so bear with me).

The GFS Op can't be trusted. Period. You can it has a clear bias for the -AO and -NAO in the LR (denoted by the grey lines below the blue OBS line) those are all 10-day forecasts under the currently analyzed or observed AO/NAO state (which is negative)

 

So I agree with you they're not looking good, but they are wobbling.

The operationals of both models (GFS/ECMWF) are bouncing around with each run, but as you can see there's more spread in the AO than the NAO as the NAO looks to remain negative until at least Nov 30 (based on the last 48 hours - 12 runs)

As for the GFS Ensemble run which most look at since they're free, they're not to be trusted either. Huge changes run-to-run, which only means the models simply haven't nailed the 5-day much less the 10-day right now. We have some waiting to do until we buy the indices. Even if we get a killer block right now, we just haven't had enough of a pattern change to lock in any cold, so it's likely we really wouldn't notice it anyway. Wait until we get cold on Western Canada spilling into Central US (only a matter of time) then as it transitions east, block it with a -NAO. That's what I want come Dec 10th-ish.

Huge, epic run in the CFSv2.. When I commented on the Nov 23rd run I said with that amount of cold anomalies spilling out of Canada, there's no way we torch on the SE. Now it's looking that way. Still 4 more runs to go before I buy whatever the CFS is putting out for December, but you can't hate this look, no matter who you are.

 

NO I agree with you Jon on all points. The GFS and the Euro have struggled mightily in the mid to long range. I was looking at the models  last night and was like there is no way the models are handling this upcoming pattern correctly. There is just to much enervy everywhere. We have energy in the NE, SE, NW, and the SW. I'm like we ate going to have several issues with run to run consistency. I believe if the EPO can dive negative which looks good we will be in busines.

[Met1985]

Already a big difference in this 12z run.