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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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55 minutes ago, jshetley said:

The 6z GFS still looks nice, but I don't like being on the edge of the good rainfall. It's dry from Augusta GA to Raleigh NC and southeast from there. I'm betting this trends west and north, leaving the Carolinas and GA bone dry before it's over. It has also trended much warmer too, which is a very nice change. We don't need really cold weather until January.

Try telling everyone in Lumberton and Fayetteville that it's dry there after what we in the coastal plain dealt with after Matthew.

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4 hours ago, jshetley said:

The 6z GFS still looks nice, but I don't like being on the edge of the good rainfall. It's dry from Augusta GA to Raleigh NC and southeast from there. I'm betting this trends west and north, leaving the Carolinas and GA bone dry before it's over. It has also trended much warmer too, which is a very nice change. We don't need really cold weather until January.

Seriously ? You want our 2nd coldest month of the year (December) to be warm ?

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3 hours ago, tramadoc said:

Try telling everyone in Lumberton and Fayetteville that it's dry there after what we in the coastal plain dealt with after Matthew.

I meant that the 6z GFS was mostly dry southeast of that line. It is probably starting to get a little dry in eastern NC by now though, even after Hermine and Matthew since it hasn't rained in over a month there.

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Looks like the models are going away from the blocking earlier shown. The NAO even looks to go positive.

the more concerning trend is the Ridge west of Alaska looks to set up too far West and burry troughs in the west and screw us all . This idea has ensemble support 1bd9863408b6ae05d4d8f879947eed8b.jpg

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4 hours ago, jshetley said:

The 6z GFS still looks nice, but I don't like being on the edge of the good rainfall. It's dry from Augusta GA to Raleigh NC and southeast from there. I'm betting this trends west and north, leaving the Carolinas and GA bone dry before it's over. It has also trended much warmer too, which is a very nice change. We don't need really cold weather until January.

Augusta is not burning, so as long as it gets to WNC and ETN, were good! We know it never rains in Jonesville 

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18 minutes ago, jshetley said:

I meant that the 6z GFS was mostly dry southeast of that line. It is probably starting to get a little dry in eastern NC by now though, even after Hermine and Matthew since it hasn't rained in over a month there.

We've gotten a few decent showers the last two weeks. Got a good amount yesterday and the night before. But I get what you're saying.

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47 minutes ago, Stormcatt said:

the more concerning trend is the Ridge west of Alaska looks to set up too far West and burry troughs in the west and screw us all . This idea has ensemble support 1bd9863408b6ae05d4d8f879947eed8b.jpg

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Yeah I don't like that look for cold at all. Currently we need a lot of rain so I can do without all the cold and dry really.

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Christmas forecast:  unseasonably warm along the east coast.  Warm with increasingly warm warmth.  Warm with highs 50s way north, 60s, middle, 70s south.  Rinse repeat as needed.  I'm telling you delayed is denied.  We should be seeing effects of pattern change by now.   trough west ridge east.  Book it and don't believe the the hype.

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Christmas forecast:  unseasonably warm along the east coast.  Warm with increasingly warm warmth.  Warm with highs 50s way north, 60s, middle, 70s south.  Rinse repeat as needed.  I'm telling you delayed is denied.  We should be seeing effects of pattern change by now.   trough west ridge east.  Book it and don't believe the the hype.

Dude don't jump yet.  If we hit mid December with no signs of a snow pattern then consider jumping.

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Euro jumps off the ridge in the west and introduces a deep trough instead. PNA goes negative ,  AO is all over the place, and the NAO will be no help. Again lets just get some rain then work on the cold.


good news is the euro has been horrible this year post day 7 so just it a run or two and it will be different

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I'm not.  Just kidding around. Sort of.  But nothing seems to work as planned.  Thanksgiving week was supposed to be the beginning of the pattern change.  I could hit 70 up here in DC metro next week.  It will get cold I imagine in a fleeting nature.  Doesn't it always.  But locked cold.  No way my friend.  My experience is look at Thanksgiving and extrapolate.  We shall see and to be proven wrong is totally fine with me.  

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I'm not.  Just kidding around. Sort of.  But nothing seems to work as planned.  Thanksgiving week was supposed to be the beginning of the pattern change.  I could hit 70 up here in DC metro next week.  It will get cold I imagine in a fleeting nature.  Doesn't it always.  But locked cold.  No way my friend.  My experience is look at Thanksgiving and extrapolate.  We shall see and to be proven wrong is totally fine with me.  

Thanksgiving featured record warmth in Atlanta, so I guess we can expect a record warm winter.

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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

I'm not.  Just kidding around. Sort of.  But nothing seems to work as planned.  Thanksgiving week was supposed to be the beginning of the pattern change.  I could hit 70 up here in DC metro next week.  It will get cold I imagine in a fleeting nature.  Doesn't it always.  But locked cold.  No way my friend.  My experience is look at Thanksgiving and extrapolate.  We shall see and to be proven wrong is totally fine with me.  

Meh, we don't want locked cold in December anyway. It doesn't snow in Dec down here...maybe in NVa, but it's rare in Central NC. I want locked cold in mid-Jan.

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1 hour ago, Jon said:

Meh, we don't want locked cold in December anyway. It doesn't snow in Dec down here...maybe in NVa, but it's rare in Central NC. I want locked cold in mid-Jan.

Yep...anytime after mid/end Dec we can do wintery precip.   I just don't want to see some horror pattern setup in early Dec that would take a long time to get out of.   So far we aren't seeing that.  

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2 hours ago, jshetley said:

A December like last year would suit me fine. Any winter weather in the SE before Jan 1 is hard to come by, so December may as well be warm.

I still like cold in December, even if there's no snow. But the last two below normal Decembers in Chapel Hill (2009 and 2010) saw frozen precip, so it's not that hard.

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There is nothing in the foreseeable future to bring the cold south.  I think December 2106 will be remembered for its warmth.  All of the guidance that showed favorable blocking has evaporated.  Again we shall see but if it was trending cold it would be cold right now.  It s nearly 60 here near D.C.  Same tomorrow maybe 5F less.  Long range forecasts said we should be looking at winter right now.  Then next week warm again,  rinse repeat.  Who ever is saying cold December is a snake oil salesman.  

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There is nothing in the foreseeable future to bring the cold south.  I think December 2106 will be remembered for its warmth.  All of the guidance that showed favorable blocking has evaporated.  Again we shall see but if it was trending cold it would be cold right now.  It s nearly 60 here near D.C.  Same tomorrow maybe 5F less.  Long range forecasts said we should be looking at winter right now.  Then next week warm again,  rinse repeat.  Who ever is saying cold December is a snake oil salesman.  



Now that's some long range forecasting, folks. 2106?!



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