Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion

[jshetley]

The long range just keeps getting warmer. No cool weather in sight. 90-95 or even higher for highs and 73-77 for lows right into Sept over most of the southeast with no break from the high humidity either.

[calculus1]

I'm looking forward to highs "only" in the mid-80s. GSP has Hickory's highs pegged at 86 or less beginning Thursday and proceeding through the end of their forecast window.

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[BlueRidgeFolklore]

4 hours ago, jshetley said:

The long range just keeps getting warmer. No cool weather in sight. 90-95 or even higher for highs and 73-77 for lows right into Sept over most of the southeast with no break from the high humidity either.

What region are you alluding to? A lot of the SE is still 90's in August. That is normal. However here in the Mountains of NC where we have been experiencing unusually warm temperatures, GSP is forecasting highs in the 70's by weeks end. It's definitely looking like it will be cooler here.

[FallsLake]

By averages, we should start seeing some nice drops in temperatures during the next month.

Average highs and lows for RDU for the next month (and some):

[jshetley]

7 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

What region are you alluding to? A lot of the SE is still 90's in August. That is normal. However here in the Mountains of NC where we have been experiencing unusually warm temperatures, GSP is forecasting highs in the 70's by weeks end. It's definitely looking like it will be cooler here.

Anywhere in SC, NC, GA, and Al outside of the mountains and some of the foothills. Earlier forecasts had the GSP metro having 3-4 days in the 80's starting today. Now we are down to 1 day that's supposed to stay below 90. Where I am, just SE of the metro, our forecast is for 93-97 today and 90-94 right through next Monday. The NWS in Raleigh is already saying it'll be drier and warmer in the their CWA than earlier forecast for this weekend and early next week, with mid 90's poosible there again by Sun And Mon. The cooldown for next week isn't looking great either now. The cooler air gets into Tenn and that's for 1 day only, then the heat is right back on.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

26 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

By averages, we should start seeing some nice drops in temperatures during the next month.

Average highs and lows for RDU for the next month (and some):

 

September is a transitional month for just about everyone. Even our Labor Day festivities here in the mountains, are usually a scorcher, then by months end, you're wearing a sweatshirt at night.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

24 minutes ago, jshetley said:

Anywhere in SC, NC, GA, and Al outside of the mountains and some of the foothills. Earlier forecasts had the GSP metro having 3-4 days in the 80's starting today. Now we are down to 1 day that's supposed to stay below 90. Where I am, just SE of the metro, our forecast is for 93-97 today and 90-94 right through next Monday. The NWS in Raleigh is already saying it'll be drier and warmer in the their CWA than earlier forecast for this weekend and early next week, with mid 90's poosible there again by Sun And Mon. The cooldown for next week isn't looking great either now. The cooler air gets into Tenn and that's for 1 day only, then the heat is right back on.

We'll see if it verifies. I know one thing, the last 2 mornings here, have been much more pleasant than the rest of August and July. It feels like there will be a breakthrough on the horizon for us up in the Mountains.

[jshetley]

6 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

We'll see if it verifies. I know one thing, the last 2 mornings here, have been much more pleasant than the rest of August and July. It feels like there will be a breakthrough on the horizon for us up in the Mountains.

This morning was one of our warmest starts of the summer down here though. Thankfully some cloud cover has slowed the temp rise so we may not hit 95+. Up in the NC mountains it should indeed be cooler since you'll be closer to the front and have a better chance of storms. Next week's brief cooldown may glance the mountains, but will not effect areas below I-85 unless things change of course. 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

7 minutes ago, jshetley said:

This morning was one of our warmest starts of the summer down here though. Thankfully some cloud cover has slowed the temp rise so we may not hit 95+. Up in the NC mountains it should indeed be cooler since you'll be closer to the front and have a better chance of storms. Next week's brief cooldown may glance the mountains, but will not effect areas below I-85 unless things change of course. 

That is surprising. The Mountains are not far from the GSP area, but the climate is a world of difference. I woke up and the humidity was relatively low at about 67 degrees. I rode all the work with the windows down.

[jshetley]

1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

That is surprising. The Mountains are not far from the GSP area, but the climate is a world of difference. I woke up and the humidity was relatively low at about 67 degrees. I rode all the work with the windows down.

Elevation has a lot to do with it though. 99.5% of the time the Asheville area will be cooler and less humid than GSP. Places higher up will be even cooler with even less humidity.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

36 minutes ago, jshetley said:

Elevation has a lot to do with it though. 99.5% of the time the Asheville area will be cooler and less humid than GSP. Places higher up will be even cooler with even less humidity.

I completely understand that, I am just specifically talking about the severity of the difference. You can be in GSP in one hour from Asheville yet be a world apart from a meteorological standpoint.

[FallsLake]

Not as promising as yesterday but still something to look forward to -- RAH afternoon discussion:

Monday will start out the same on Monday with hot and soupy
conditions but things will start changing maybe by Monday night as
the GFS brings a front through the area late Monday night. ECMWF is
a bit slower with this scenario but the upshot is the same. Forecast
soundings change dramatically for Tuesday as a large slug of dry air
moves into the area and for the first time in a long time, dewpoints
will most likely crash into the 60s. With very stable conditions and
no weather expected, next Tuesday could be a day with high temps in
the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the mid 60s! Stay tuned.
 

12z GFS would indicate more cool/dry shots in the far extended but we shall see...

[Snowless in Carrollton]

RAH makes it sound like dp's in the mid 60s are unusual in late August but isn't that pretty normal ?

[FallsLake]

2 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

RAH makes it sound like dp's in the mid 60s are unusual in late August but isn't that pretty normal ?

It is normal but we haven't been normal in some time. So it will feel better.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

10 hours ago, jshetley said:

Anywhere in SC, NC, GA, and Al outside of the mountains and some of the foothills. Earlier forecasts had the GSP metro having 3-4 days in the 80's starting today. Now we are down to 1 day that's supposed to stay below 90. Where I am, just SE of the metro, our forecast is for 93-97 today and 90-94 right through next Monday. The NWS in Raleigh is already saying it'll be drier and warmer in the their CWA than earlier forecast for this weekend and early next week, with mid 90's poosible there again by Sun And Mon. The cooldown for next week isn't looking great either now. The cooler air gets into Tenn and that's for 1 day only, then the heat is right back on.

 I'm beginning to think you're the "Brick" of SC. Can you post anything that's positive? It's already cooler than the entire month of July. Yes, the humidity is up there b/c of the recent rain, but we are starting the slow slide back down. GSP forecasts temps in upper 80s for my area after a 90 on Thursday, and right around 90 for yours. It's coming dude, just gotta be patient. Only a few more weeks.  

[downeastnc]

7 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

 I'm beginning to think you're the "Brick" of SC. Can you post anything that's positive? It's already cooler than the entire month of July. Yes, the humidity is up there b/c of the recent rain, but we are starting the slow slide back down. GSP forecasts temps in upper 80s for my area after a 90 on Thursday, and right around 90 for yours. It's coming dude, just gotta be patient. Only a few more weeks.  

Models have pretty big change by the end of Aug.....latest GFS only has 1 day over 90 between Aug 21 and Sept 2nd for all of NC/SC  and a good chunk of GA......heck some of those days don't hardly break 80......and there is no real heat building anywhere in the US even deep in Texas the highs are 90 or so....

[jshetley]

Got to go with the Euro, which brings bigtime heat back by day 10 with a 594 closed ridge right over AL, with 850 temps around 22C. The 0z GFS has 100+ again in both NC and SC out beyond day 10. We might get a brief shot of cool air next week, but the heat will back. Maybe the highest temps of the entire summer.

[FallsLake]

21 minutes ago, jshetley said:

Got to go with the Euro, which brings bigtime heat back by day 10 with a 594 closed ridge right over AL, with 850 temps around 22C. The 0z GFS has 100+ again in both NC and SC out beyond day 10. We might get a brief shot of cool air next week, but the heat will back. Maybe the highest temps of the entire summer.

And that wouldn't be out of the ordinary. What we look for this time of year are shots of cooler/dryer air. We'll have to wait until mid September or so to see a permanent break; of course then there'll be short shots of heat until mid October or so.  

[FallsLake]

Looking at the 6z GFS and it still shows the break for day 5 onwards. As discussed earlier, this is not a cool crisp change but more of a drop to average temps and lower dew points.

 

[FallsLake]

 

<RAH overnight discussion>

Sunday night through Tuesday: Medium range models have trended a bit
faster with the approach of the next system and cold frontal passage.
A deep trough for this time of year is expected to push eastward
across the northern half of the U.S. and Southern Canada this
weekend... with a primary surface low lifting northeastward and
strengthening from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes Region and
Eastern Canada by Sunday into Sunday night. As the main energy
shifts to the east and northeast a trailing cold front is now
expected to move through central NC on Monday/Monday evening.
Central NC will be on the southern fringes of some stronger mid
level flow as the frontal system moves through (~30 kts at 500 mb).
Given this and expected continued moist and unstable airmass in
advance of the front we may see some multicellular clusters or line
move across the area (best chance across northern portions of the
area) on Monday in advance of the front. Though any severe threat
will depend on the actual timing of the front and how mesoscale
details evolve. High temps on Monday are expected to range from the
upper 80s to mid 90s, with lows Monday morning in the lower to mid
70s.

Dry weather is expected to return behind the front on Tuesday, with
much drier air filtering into the area. High temps should fall to at
least normal values, with some guidances showing below normal temps.
For now will go with highs on Tuesday ranging from the mid to upper
80s.

 

Baby steps...

[jshetley]

20 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Looking at the 6z GFS and it still shows the break for day 5 onwards. As discussed earlier, this is not a cool crisp change but more of a drop to average temps and lower dew points.

 

The 6z gfs is a little cooler, but the day 10 Euro is worrisome. That ridge is in the perfect spot to bring downslope flow right into NC and SC. We could see widespread 100-105 temps here IF it verifies. That kind of heat would be awful if it lasted into Sept.

[Wow]

33 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Looking at the 6z GFS and it still shows the break for day 5 onwards. As discussed earlier, this is not a cool crisp change but more of a drop to average temps and lower dew points.

 

I'll take it.  Need to finish my shed and the heat+humidity has definitely slowed me down.

[downeastnc]

1 hour ago, jshetley said:

Got to go with the Euro, which brings bigtime heat back by day 10 with a 594 closed ridge right over AL, with 850 temps around 22C. The 0z GFS has 100+ again in both NC and SC out beyond day 10. We might get a brief shot of cool air next week, but the heat will back. Maybe the highest temps of the entire summer.

Ok here is the 0Z GFS 2M temps where exactly are the 100+ readings in NC and SC after day 10 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2016081700&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=0

 

Even the 06Z which is warmer for sure is mid 90's returning in early Sept but no 100's anywhere in the Carolinas

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2016081706&fh=-6&xpos=0&ypos=0

 

I think we see a shift to a pattern starting around Sun/Mon to where normal to maybe slightly below normal and dryer air masses are the rule for the next several weeks and any warm ups and higher dews are limited to 2-4 day periods....

[jshetley]

Those are 100 degree readings beyond day 10 on the 0z GFS. 6z is actually cooler.

[Cold Rain]

There should be very little concern over 10 day model ground temp forecasts.

[Cold Rain]

This is not an upper air map generally supportive of widespread 100+:

 

 

[Avdave]

3 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

There should be very little concern over 10 day model ground temp forecasts.

thats the truth. Excellent post.  It like saying it is going to snow at 372 hr on the GFS. Its pointless to really break down into micro details at that range

[Snowless in Carrollton]

4 hours ago, jshetley said:

Those are 100 degree readings beyond day 10 on the 0z GFS. 6z is actually cooler.

That would be pretty much unheard of to have temps of 100+ in September in or near Atlanta. I'm not sure Atlanta has ever hit 100 in September. Even 95 is very unusual for September.

[SnowDeac]

1 hour ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

That would be pretty much unheard of to have temps of 100+ in September in or near Atlanta. I'm not sure Atlanta has ever hit 100 in September. Even 95 is very unusual for September.

Right, and I'm going to go out on a limb and say South Dakota doesn't see 105+... 

[FallsLake]

<RAH afternoon discussion>

Monday through Wednesday: The approaching cold front will be the
game changer for central NC bringing some relief to the long lived
heat and humidity that we have seen for several weeks. The front
will be in the process of going through on Monday and therefore we
wont feel the full effects of the airmass change until Tuesday. As
for the frontal passage, instability does not appear to be great
with less than ideal diurnal timing but shear values are near 30 kts
which bears watching for potential severe thunderstorms but at this
point the timing is too uncertain to get bogged down in the details.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be mostly clear behind the front and with
temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints well down into the 60s it will
feel much more comfortable. By Wednesday, some areas in the
northwest Piedmont could see some upper 50s dewpoints as well with
highs in the low 80s. Mid 80s elsewhere.
 

As Wow stated, I'll take it!