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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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14 minutes ago, griteater said:

Good work Bob.  The Canadian Ensemble actually looks better than the GEFS....the one thing I wonder though is, like you mentioned, it seems like the relaxing of the pattern in the NE Pacific shows up on the extended modeling, but then fails at go time.  We could probably go back in the archive and view the extended maps and see this clearly.  The Pac train is on a roll at the moment.

In a perfect world...we want the pac train to continue but get displaced further south under an epo ridge and then the neg nao can keep the track right under us and then up the coast. lol

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

In a perfect world...we want the pac train to continue but get displaced further south under an epo ridge and then the neg nao can keep the track right under us and then up the coast. lol

Oh don't think I haven't thought about that, ha.  Basically a post super El Nino weak La Nina that acts like a moderate El Nino with blocking...make it happen

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3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

We don't need cross polar flow to "move the cold" from siberia. The cold there has been the result of the high latitude blocking pattern. North America can easily build it's own cold we just need a break from the pac jet scouring every chance. That seems to be on the horizon but we'll have to wait...as usual. 

The GEFS and to a lesser extent the EPS are finally showing higher heights in AK&NW Canada pressing poleward. If this happens, cold will build very quickly in western Canada. The first real cold outbreak in the conus looks like the west right now but that is fine. Once the storm cycle in the intermountain west runs its course it will usually be replaced by a broad ridge in the western conus. Similar to what the euro weeklies showed for the second and third week of Dec. It's only Nov 20th and the pattern across NA is going through a large change over the next two weeks. I'm fairly optimistic that a solid wintry period will happen in the east during Dec. Snow chances if any will be embedded in the chaos so who knows on that. But as far as a "real" winter pattern goes...I'm thinking we have a good chance coming up. 

Oh I agree fully that this is not a cancel wintet but I'm not optimistic about a BN December. True we can do without a cross polar flow but as you said we wait for the Pacific to calm down. We really need Canada to start building cold and snow pack soon. A warm Canada will not be supportive for us to get cold. Also for us in the SE we really need a good cold source to tape into. It's early thank gosh but I think we step down very slowly through December. Obviously the pattern has slowly, very slowly changed this month but we still need to do a lot of work.

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53 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Going to be difficult to build heights for -EPO with the PV where it's at.  With the displaced ridge in GOA it invites a trough in the west.  Got some work to do to get BN in the east, IMO. 

 

 

IMG_3130.PNG

Yes no doubt we have work to do. The EPO is a huge driver and it is just not doing what we want. I want cold as much as the next person but we have to make some changes to the pattern in the Pacific and to the PV to get what we want. I even think I read where Dr. Cohen was talking about this. Great stuff Bob and no I don't think you where singling me out .  We always welcome your opinions and sound advice on the pattern ! 

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28 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Models still going for a significant storm around 11/29-12/1 period and that one might get the ball rolling.That sets up the PV,sets up better blocking off the west coast.Gives us better chances for precip and we need that desperately.

We need a big storm to really get things moving I think. we sure as heck need the rain.

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5 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yes no doubt we have work to do. The EPO is a huge driver and it is just not doing what we want. I want cold as much as the next person but we have to make some changes to the pattern in the Pacific and to the PV to get what we want. I even think I read where Dr. Cohen was talking about this. Great stuff Bob and no I don't think you where singling me out .  We always welcome your opinions and sound advice on the pattern ! 

Though I do agree with Bob...going to take some patience.  I do like how cold is getting dumped into the conus.  Globals are wanting to dump it in the west to the plains the first week of Dec.  Hopefully it shifts east come mid-Dec.   Atleast for central NC I think anytime after mid Dec into early March our climo can reasonably support snow chances. 

IMG_3133.PNG

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2 hours ago, packbacker said:

Though I do agree with Bob...going to take some patience.  I do like how cold is getting dumped into the conus.  Globals are wanting to dump it in the west to the plains the first week of Dec.  Hopefully it shifts east come mid-Dec.   Atleast for central NC I think anytime after mid Dec into early March our climo can reasonably support snow chances. 

IMG_3133.PNG

I'm not mad at all with the cold in the west. Pretty normal stuff early winter. I'm sure you agree. The HB block will keep 40 south from torching but snow won't come easy or at all for both our regions. And that's fine. Early Dec is typically hostile for our regions. 

The simple fact that NA is building some real cold for the first time this young season is encouraging. The last couple years weren't very friendly in Dec. Time to root for the ridge in the west off the coast to roll east. That's normal too. But beyond guidance so not much to get excited about...yet. We've been in far worse places at this stage in the game. No reason to be pessimistic.

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8 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not mad at all with the cold in the west. Pretty normal stuff early winter. I'm sure you agree. The HB block will keep 40 south from torching but snow won't come easy or at all for both our regions. And that's fine. Early Dec is typically hostile for our regions. 

The simple fact that NA is building some real cold for the first time this young season is encouraging. The last couple years weren't very friendly in Dec. Time to root for the ridge in the west off the coast to roll east. That's normal too. But beyond guidance so not much to get excited about...yet. We've been in far worse places at this stage in the game. No reason to be pessimistic.

Agree with this 100%.

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The Drought is fixing to take a punch in the face in the SE. Want be a knockout blow but the trough setting up in the west is going to open up SW flow and we should get a hefty dose of rain across the SE early next week. Then the trough should continue work its way east and hopefully set up shop east coast style through the first 10 days of December.

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5 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

The Drought is fixing to take a punch in the face in the SE. Want be a knockout blow but the trough setting up in the west is going to open up SW flow and we should get a hefty dose of rain across the SE early next week. Then the trough should continue work its way east and hopefully set up shop east coast style through the first 10 days of December.

I hope we get the rain but I think the trough actually lifts more north like this weekend did. This weekends trough was suppose to come barreling in here but lifted north. I think that will happen again unless we have a good NAO block.

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

I hope we get the rain but I think the trough actually lifts more north like this weekend did. This weekends trough was suppose to come barreling in here but lifted north. I think that will happen again unless we have a good NAO block.

Yep, been happening for a while now.  We get a great region-wide rain event around 180 hours.  By zero hour, the main energy heads NE, the flow over the SE is mostly flat, and we get a band of light sprinkles and partly cloudy skies.  That doesn't look to change very much, prior to truncation.  Meanwhile, Russia freezes.  Amazing that we never get locked into a cold pattern like that for weeks on end.  But warm and dry?  No problem there!

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

I hope we get the rain but I think the trough actually lifts more north like this weekend did. This weekends trough was suppose to come barreling in here but lifted north. I think that will happen again unless we have a good NAO block.

12z runs were pretty solid with the blocking ridge and a lowering storm track.  That would increase precip chances next week.

2hz7j0n.gif

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Yep, been happening for a while now.  We get a great region-wide rain event around 180 hours.  By zero hour, the main energy heads NE, the flow over the SE is mostly flat, and we get a band of light sprinkles and partly cloudy skies.  That doesn't look to change very much, prior to truncation.  Meanwhile, Russia freezes.  Amazing that we never get locked into a cold pattern like that for weeks on end.  But warm and dry?  No problem there!

Yeah we have been stuck in crappy winter patterns going on 5 years now. With  the exception of a week here or there. I'm not saying winter is over but the pattern going into December is suspicious if you ask me.

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This is from Isotherm up in the NY forum.

I'm now beginning to wonder whether we'll even officially achieve a zonal wind reversal at 10hpa/65N. The ECMWF gets us close at D 4-6, then strengthens the vortex, and now for two consecutive days, the GFS depicts the reversal but w/ rapid intensification thereafter. As expressed yesterday and throughout this season, there are factors destructively interfering with weak vortex maintenance, and other concerns regarding strat progression which favor Europe/Asia. We will be -NAM/-NAO over the next couple weeks but it probably won't translate into anything for the coast, in light of the Pacific and relatively ineffective orientation. The question becomes - what happens as December continues with respect to the blocking? If the zonal wind reversal fails, and vortex intensification is rapid, the blocking episode may not be as protracted as we think. A lot to consider, and certainly far from ready to be too optimistic at least from my perspective.

 

u_65N_10hpa.png

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4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

You go with the trends vs. LR modeling until the trends change.  This is the safest forecasting route for the medium/long term, IMO.

Both the LR modeling for the euro and GFS have been busting bad. Of course the pattern has changed as I would say we average near normal in temps but by no means are we going to enter a cold pattern at least in the next two weeks in my opinion. 

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21 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Both the LR modeling for the euro and GFS have been busting bad. Of course the pattern has changed as I would say we average near normal in temps but by no means are we going to enter a cold pattern at least in the next two weeks in my opinion. 

I think it's more of us getting into a time of year where it's hard for it to be in the upper 80s and 90s, which creates the illusion that we have a much better pattern.  The pattern still sucks.  But it is what it is.  At least every now and then, it feels chilly.

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6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I think it's more of us getting into a time of year where it's hard for it to be in the upper 80s and 90s, which creates the illusion that we have a much better pattern.  The pattern still sucks.  But it is what it is.  At least every now and then, it feels chilly.

Lol well that's one way of looking at it. For  me as long as the Pacific is rolling storm after storm in the NW then the pattern will continue to be problematic. 

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Lol well that's one way of looking at it. For  me as long as the Pacific is rolling storm after storm in the NW then the pattern will continue to be problematic. 

 This pattern isn't going anywhere since it matches perfectly with LaNina. The GFS is slowly backing off on the rain now with much of NC down to .50 or less and I think the west and north trend isn't over yet. I can see it being bone dry well into Dec now. Most areas east of a Birmingham AL to Nashville Tenn line will be lucky to get 5 inches of rain from now right through March. Normal is between 15-20 inches for that period, but most places will not get remotely close to that. 

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I posted this in Banter but I'm re-posting here - Mods - delete if you feel appropriate.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I have this theory.

If everyone on this Board paraded and blissfully exuded hopes for a warm winter - no snow, no days below 60º - no nights below 32º - and lauded the pattern and the set up as "what we want all winter" - and just rooted the situation we're in as ideal - in 2 weeks it would be so damn cold that Miami would look like Charlotte and ....

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