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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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@packbacker

Compare the late panels of the 12z gfs op to last night's 0z EPS control run. It's a 15 day fantasy but man, I'm not sure they could match any better. lol

The GEFS have looked far better than the EPS in the d11-15 range but the EPS has been stepping ever so slowly into the GEFS camp. 

Some of the -NAO looks we're seeing on guidance is really impressive so let's jump to irrational conclusions... I'm starting to think that early winter pattern may in fact be overwhelmed with the nastiest blocking we've seen since 10-11. The strat hasn't been this primed this early in a long long time either. 

If things transpire over the next 2 weeks as being hinted at then cold Dec calls may very well be the smart ones. It could still happen even if the Pac is "so-so". heh. I ate a bowl of optimism this morning. 

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1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I wish everyone would stop being so optimistic. You can't trust models that far out. Let's just take it one week at a time.

You're correct but we can look at them to attempt to get an idea of the overall pattern. 

On a related note: Indies today show the PNA falling to near average to slight positive; the NAO looks to go mostly negative; and the AO goes solidly negative.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

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27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@packbacker

Compare the late panels of the 12z gfs op to last night's 0z EPS control run. It's a 15 day fantasy but man, I'm not sure they could match any better. lol

The GEFS have looked far better than the EPS in the d11-15 range but the EPS has been stepping ever so slowly into the GEFS camp. 

Some of the -NAO looks we're seeing on guidance is really impressive so let's jump to irrational conclusions... I'm starting to think that early winter pattern may in fact be overwhelmed with the nastiest blocking we've seen since 10-11. The strat hasn't been this primed this early in a long long time either. 

If things transpire over the next 2 weeks as being hinted at then cold Dec calls may very well be the smart ones. It could still happen even if the Pac is "so-so". heh. I ate a bowl of optimism this morning. 

Hah...yeah, I am optimistic too...cautiously.  It's hard to imagine that every seasonal being wrong but when they are spitting stuff like this out.  I don't buy the extreme cold/snowy scenario's either but a mix bag of warm/cold and chances at wintery stuff on and off is what I am thinking.

 

Screen Shot 2016-11-14 at 12.49.05 PM.png

Screen Shot 2016-11-14 at 12.49.22 PM.png

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20 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Hah...yeah, I am optimistic too...cautiously.  It's hard to imagine that every seasonal being wrong but when they are spitting stuff like this out.  I don't buy the extreme cold/snowy scenario's either but a mix bag of warm/cold and chances at wintery stuff on and off is what I am thinking.

 

The thing about seasonals is they often miss overwhelming/anomalous features. Enso is easy. But there can be bus driver of a long term pattern that simply can't be predicted in advance at all.  Think of the 13-14 EPO ridge. I don't remember what the seasonals said leading into that winter but that big ball of red fire over the western arctic and occasional scand ridge bridge completely dominated the NA pattern. I don't remember hearing bupkiss about that leading all. It was "supposed" to be a -AO winter and all the buzz was about the SAI. Did the SAI cause the -EPO? Maybe. But that's not what the science is based on so it was a bust even though Cohen spun it to a victory. 

From what I've witnessed over spending WAY to much time analyzing things in the winter is when you get a significant early block in Dec it doesn't go away easily. I think a lot of us forgotten what a Dec block actually looks like. lol. 

One problem I'm seeing in the winter calls on the forum could potentially be recency bias and completely ignoring what happened with the SAI and also being skeptical about the weakness of strat so far. You know...we don't get blocking any more so no sense calling for a big dog in that dept. Well, what if half of the winter is a big dog? Could it be this year? We'll know part of the answer in just a couple weeks. 

I found my old AO spreadsheet. I didn't update for 12-13. It was a good blocking winter but the Pac said "sorry dudes. maybe another time"

This is pretty compelling evidence that a -1.5 AO in December is a big tell for January and also for the winter as whole:

 

AO -1.00 or lower.JPG

 

I don't pay too close attention to winter forecasts irt snowfall in the MA (and you guys should care even less further south) because I don't care kind of pattern we get, one or 2 individual storms (or misses) can make or break the seasonal totals. My area was below climo snow in 10-11 but we suffered a few terrible breaks early on that would have put all the airports over the top. 13-14 was one of the best ever for # of events and the totals were pretty awesome. But the pattern most closely resembled 93-94 and that year sucked here in the snowfall dept. I mostly grade seasonals by temp patterns for DJF. Snow has inherent luck/chaos embedded in it. 

 

 

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Indices looking good:

PNA - Goes neutral to slightly positive in the LR

AO - Goes strongly negative

NAO - Goes strongly negative 

**I would love to see the PNA more positive. I've always went on the belief that it was one of the more important teleconnections.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

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3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Indices looking good:

PNA - Goes neutral to slightly positive in the LR

AO - Goes strongly negative

NAO - Goes strongly negative 

**I would love to see the PNA more positive. I've always went on the belief that it was one of the more important teleconnections.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

The PNA is important. However, the NAO will trump it every time. You can still get a decent set-up without a +PNA, as long as it's not raging negative, but it is harder to get a good winter without the Atlantic cooperating. I for one, really like the indices that are forecasted by the global models today. 

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7 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Indices looking good:

PNA - Goes neutral to slightly positive in the LR

AO - Goes strongly negative

NAO - Goes strongly negative 

**I would love to see the PNA more positive. I've always went on the belief that it was one of the more important teleconnections.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

You are 100% correct as far as im concerened. Get all 3 lined up and locked in doesnt gurantee a slam dunk in the SE, but its like trying to hit underhanded pitches verse 100 mph fastballs. Which is usually the type of pitching we face D,J,F down here

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50 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

We really need to start getting some deep snow pack down in pretty much all of Canada.  That would be the best use of the balance of the month.

If that winter storm works out for PA and Upstate NY (12-30") this coming weekend, that can help. Pattern change already showing on all operational modeling. 

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2 hours ago, Jon said:

If that winter storm works out for PA and Upstate NY (12-30") this coming weekend, that can help. Pattern change already showing on all operational modeling. 

Hopefully, that pans out.

Brick, the 12z guidance doesn't show any snow for Raleigh now.  The Euro does have a tropical system south of Cuba moving north, though.

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Hopefully, that pans out.

Brick, the 12z guidance doesn't show any snow for Raleigh now.  The Euro does have a tropical system south of Cuba moving north, though.

NHC is up to 80%. Will be interesting to see if it forms, and if so where it goes, and if it forms and where it may go (if so), what sort of impact it may have on this season's weather - both in the near term and further and farther out.  :blink:

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NHC is up to 80%. Will be interesting to see if it forms, and if so where it goes, and if it forms and where it may go (if so), what sort of impact it may have on this season's weather - both in the near term and further and farther out.  :blink:


shouldn't really have any chance of a US impact with all the troughs incoming

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, Stormcatt said:


shouldn't really have any chance of a US impact with all the troughs incoming

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 

am not thinking about tropical impacts, but what, if any impact a system may have on late fall/early winter pattern development ... no answers - just a thought -  (depending on what it is, how strong it is, where it goes ....) ......  just another variable in the equation.

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3 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

am not thinking about tropical impacts, but what, if any impact a system may have on late fall/early winter pattern development ... no answers - just a thought -  (depending on what it is, how strong it is, where it goes ....) ......  just another variable in the equation.

Should eventually move harmlessly out to sea and have no lasting impact on the upcoming seasonal pattern.

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18 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

A major in the western Caribbean is very unlikely to move harmlessly out to sea, it is sort of bound to smack someone. EURO is concerning.

Definitely agree.  If we get a cane in that area, it will most likely hit land.  I meant it's eventual effect on the large scale seasonal pattern.  After it moves over land, it should die off or weaken and then move ots, not affecting the pattern.  Recurving typhoons, potentially could affect the pattern.  But that's another story altogether.

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