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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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18 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

I disagree writing off late November and December in certain years should make you lose heart. This is one of those years. Piedmont areas have had many a winters with snow on the front end before blazing the rest of winter. I like our chances late November into December over January wholeheartedly!! I will have more of an opinion on February/March later on.

The record days without precip, is about to be shattered in CLT and GSP! This is the most sky-healing in recorded history! I expect big things this winter, Jan 88 and Jan 96 type stuff! We only may get one storm, but I expect it to be a big one! 6+", for everyone!

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7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

The record days without precip, is about to be shattered in CLT and GSP! This is the most sky-healing in recorded history! I expect big things this winter, Jan 88 and Jan 96 type stuff! We only may get one storm, but I expect it to be a big one! 6+", for everyone!

Not quiet you are paying the price for the damage across eastern NC and the coastal areas of the S/E. Multiple systems this year, tropical rain events, in addition to Matthew. The atmospheric pattern tries to balance things out and you just happen to be on the west vs east side of things. Dry does bode well for periods of cold though...and dry/cold is always interesting in the CAD areas...and often misunderstood by the NWS with evaporative cooling and less precip but albeit more frozen in nature vs rain.

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We are saying the same thing. 

1 hour ago, NWNC2015 said:

I disagree writing off late November and December in certain years should make you lose heart...

 

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

...Looks like an overall mild November. If it goes through December I would not lose heart. Southeast does best with snow leveraging a good pattern in January or February...

I have a new skier asking me, when Daddy? Believe me, even when I write bearish posts I really want snow just like most of us do. 

:ski:

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back to a more realistic pattern recognition on the OP 12z GFS with the PAC looking ugly...that bitter cold idea of Turkey day seems to have vanished from 6z like your belt under your belly after eating....yes, I know its an OP run but fun to see the changes from run to run..one of them will be the real result..my money is on the crappiest one

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00z GFS coming in really, really cold. Reason being is a cutoff low just spins over the SE, delivering snow to the Appalachians, 12"+ in areas of NC mountains and WV (OK, Ok...I didn't wan to say it but that 29.2 Max? Yeah that's in NC not WV.)

ID8xZIO.png

It was bound to happen if you've noticed the modeling in the last 24 hours, the 0c 850 "tongue" has been trending further and further south on Euro ensembles and GEFS runs. The 00z run has 0c 850's in Central Florida. Sure, that's most likely overdone and it could be fools gold, but it bears watching how the models start to handle the pacific and where the pacific low ends up. 

The good thing is we're seeing at least a chance for BN temps and the white stuff, specifically for the Apps. Bad news is GEFS 500mb maps for days 10-15 isn't really promising, as it rids the pacific low (great!) but replaces it with a +EPO/GOA low (crap!)...which would just turn the pattern back to a mild one. We'll have to wait and see if the models once again back off this round of cold. I don't expect the snow from the 00z run to be seen on the 06z run, so save it and throw it up on your wallpaper and pray to the snow gods...but it's a nice start to a streak of abysmal model runs we've seen lately. 

 

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I'll add - as far as last half of November pattern is concerned, the trend in teleconnections have hinted at cold, or at least normal temps...not warmth.

For Nov 19+....

Teleconnection: Forecast -> Cold/Warm/Neutral in SE (Based on November Climatology)

AO: Neutral -> Cold 

NAO: Neutral -> Cold

PNA: Neutral/Neg trending Positive -> Normal trending Cold

EPO: Negative (before popping that super positive late on the 00z GFS OP) -> Cold

WPO: Negative -> Normal, Cold in some areas.

If anything, it's something to watch. I have a feeling the next Euro Weeklies could throw us a bone. But like most, I'll believe it when I see it.

8zOWaZK.png

 

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42.6" of snow on the GFS for western NC (wxbell)

7 days out....two more days and I am pulling out the thread. Less than .5" in the foothills and into SC but this setup favors areas down toward Asheville vs Mount Airy for any snowfall surprise. Lots of hangover moisture could see showers of rain/sleet/flurries even out into the western Piedmont. 

Any mod want to challenge me on creating this thread please send me a private message now not going to deal with the political correctness as we get closer to this storm.

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32 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

42.6" of snow on the GFS for western NC (wxbell)

7 days out....two more days and I am pulling out the thread. Less than .5" in the foothills and into SC but this setup favors areas down toward Asheville vs Mount Airy for any snowfall surprise. Lots of hangover moisture could see showers of rain/sleet/flurries even out into the western Piedmont. 

Any mod want to challenge me on creating this thread please send me a private message now not going to deal with the political correctness as we get closer to this storm.

Lol! It's one model run!! Go for it, fire up the thread! I promise it won't get locked! Or deleted! 

The end of Nov does look cooler and wetter!

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12 hours ago, Jon said:

00z GFS coming in really, really cold. Reason being is a cutoff low just spins over the SE, delivering snow to the Appalachians, 12"+ in areas of NC mountains and WV (OK, Ok...I didn't wan to say it but that 29.2 Max? Yeah that's in NC not WV.)

ID8xZIO.png

It was bound to happen if you've noticed the modeling in the last 24 hours, the 0c 850 "tongue" has been trending further and further south on Euro ensembles and GEFS runs. The 00z run has 0c 850's in Central Florida. Sure, that's most likely overdone and it could be fools gold, but it bears watching how the models start to handle the pacific and where the pacific low ends up. 

The good thing is we're seeing at least a chance for BN temps and the white stuff, specifically for the Apps. Bad news is GEFS 500mb maps for days 10-15 isn't really promising, as it rids the pacific low (great!) but replaces it with a +EPO/GOA low (crap!)...which would just turn the pattern back to a mild one. We'll have to wait and see if the models once again back off this round of cold. I don't expect the snow from the 00z run to be seen on the 06z run, so save it and throw it up on your wallpaper and pray to the snow gods...but it's a nice start to a streak of abysmal model runs we've seen lately. 

 

If that were to hold true, which it probably won't, thats a half inch in the northwest burbs of Atlanta.

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44 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Lol! It's one model run!! Go for it, fire up the thread! I promise it won't get locked! Or deleted! 

The end of Nov does look cooler and wetter!

It's two model runs actually and I have been constantly saying the end of November and some of December will feature our best chances of winter weather ALL winter. I will pull the thread before it endangers the lives of people in western starting 5 days out. No sooner. 2 more days to ago. I'm watching it. I'm watching everything. 

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9 hours ago, NWNC2015 said:

42.6" of snow on the GFS for western NC (wxbell)

7 days out....two more days and I am pulling out the thread. Less than .5" in the foothills and into SC but this setup favors areas down toward Asheville vs Mount Airy for any snowfall surprise. Lots of hangover moisture could see showers of rain/sleet/flurries even out into the western Piedmont. 

Any mod want to challenge me on creating this thread please send me a private message now not going to deal with the political correctness as we get closer to this storm.

Too funny..... I see plenty of time-outs in your future.

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13 hours ago, NWNC2015 said:

42.6" of snow on the GFS for western NC (wxbell)

7 days out....two more days and I am pulling out the thread. Less than .5" in the foothills and into SC but this setup favors areas down toward Asheville vs Mount Airy for any snowfall surprise. Lots of hangover moisture could see showers of rain/sleet/flurries even out into the western Piedmont. 

Any mod want to challenge me on creating this thread please send me a private message now not going to deal with the political correctness as we get closer to this storm.

 

I'm challenging you.  Since you made the announcement public the challenge will be the same. There will be no thread on this in two days.  You are only here because we let you slide in under a new name after banning you.  The hope was you had grown up a bit. In addition, I suggest you remove your childish signature or tomorrow afternoon you will be gone again and this time there will be no reprieve.  

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The indices really do look great, I'm surprised I'm the only one barking about them.

The AO is set to tank the last half of the month on all of the major models and their ensembles

i45Uul7.png

 

NAO also looks to tank, same time period -

QEvgvGN.png

 

Even if it's delayed some, this is a good sign as we head into December. -AO/-NAO in Nov and December is Cold (duh). I think those who thought November would be AN are now thinking otherwise, it's looking like BN will be a sure thing (it would be hard to be AN given current indices and modeling)...EPO is still looking to go negative Nov 20th as well, +PNA to show up around Nov 18-20th, timing differs depending on the model. All favor cold in November & to begin December.

I won't be shocked if the seasonal models start picking up on this and start throwing out colder forecasts for Dec. We'll have to continue to watch the trend in the indices and see how long or if at all these can be sustained for any length of time, but for now, I like it.

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Jon - signs of -AO, and especially -NAO, are always good.  However, over the past month and a half, the 10 to 15 day -NAO indicators have failed to come to fruition.  So we need to see it to believe it.  The Pacific side pattern is a flawed one with troughing developing from the Aleutians to off the West Coast.  We can have some cool downs in the SE with that pattern, but it's not one I'd want to see in Dec unless we had a massive -NAO to counteract it (like Dec 2010).  As for Dec, I think all we can do is speculate at this point.

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Jon - signs of -AO, and especially -NAO, are always good.  However, over the past month and a half, the 10 to 15 day -NAO indicators have failed to come to fruition.  So we need to see it to believe it.  The Pacific side pattern is a flawed one with troughing developing from the Aleutians to off the West Coast.  We can have some cool downs in the SE with that pattern, but it's not one I'd want to see in Dec unless we had a massive -NAO to counteract it (like Dec 2010).  As for Dec, I think all we can do is speculate at this point.


Yeah, I'm hoping the pacific just works itself out. We could luck out with a +PNA and a decent and/or massive block to overwhelm it and disrupt the flow, but like you said I'd rather not see that Pac trough at all. But when we have a pattern like this it's almost all we can hope for. Models seem to throw in the idea of getting rid of it only to bring it back in future runs. If the indices work out and aren't fools gold, we may have a chance to fix the pacific for Dec.
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27 minutes ago, Jon said:


Yeah, I'm hoping the pacific just works itself out. We could luck out with a +PNA and a decent and/or massive block to overwhelm it and disrupt the flow, but like you said I'd rather not see that Pac trough at all. But when we have a pattern like this it's almost all we can hope for. Models seem to throw in the idea of getting rid of it only to bring it back in future runs. If the indices work out and aren't fools gold, we may have a chance to fix the pacific for Dec.

First uber long range fantasy snow of the year on the GFS for parts of NC, actually looks kinda reasonable......would be nice if that was the dominate storm track this year, once we get into Dec and the cold air gets better that could be the ticket......

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_52.png

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