mackerel_sky Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 18 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: I disagree writing off late November and December in certain years should make you lose heart. This is one of those years. Piedmont areas have had many a winters with snow on the front end before blazing the rest of winter. I like our chances late November into December over January wholeheartedly!! I will have more of an opinion on February/March later on. The record days without precip, is about to be shattered in CLT and GSP! This is the most sky-healing in recorded history! I expect big things this winter, Jan 88 and Jan 96 type stuff! We only may get one storm, but I expect it to be a big one! 6+", for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 10, 2016 Author Share Posted November 10, 2016 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The record days without precip, is about to be shattered in CLT and GSP! This is the most sky-healing in recorded history! I expect big things this winter, Jan 88 and Jan 96 type stuff! We only may get one storm, but I expect it to be a big one! 6+", for everyone! Not quiet you are paying the price for the damage across eastern NC and the coastal areas of the S/E. Multiple systems this year, tropical rain events, in addition to Matthew. The atmospheric pattern tries to balance things out and you just happen to be on the west vs east side of things. Dry does bode well for periods of cold though...and dry/cold is always interesting in the CAD areas...and often misunderstood by the NWS with evaporative cooling and less precip but albeit more frozen in nature vs rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 We are saying the same thing. 1 hour ago, NWNC2015 said: I disagree writing off late November and December in certain years should make you lose heart... 2 hours ago, nrgjeff said: ...Looks like an overall mild November. If it goes through December I would not lose heart. Southeast does best with snow leveraging a good pattern in January or February... I have a new skier asking me, when Daddy? Believe me, even when I write bearish posts I really want snow just like most of us do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 back to a more realistic pattern recognition on the OP 12z GFS with the PAC looking ugly...that bitter cold idea of Turkey day seems to have vanished from 6z like your belt under your belly after eating....yes, I know its an OP run but fun to see the changes from run to run..one of them will be the real result..my money is on the crappiest one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 I'd rather it be 60 and sunny on Thanksgiving so we can throw the football around in the yard. But after Thanksgiving, bring on the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 11, 2016 Author Share Posted November 11, 2016 18z gfs is snowy 5 days before Thanksgiving in the MTNS...maybe some MOD amounts in the northern mountains. Not entirely possible to see a little rain end as sleet/flurries on the tail end in the western foothills in a setup like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 JB says: delayed but not denied! Pattern change is pushed back to December, but December we will remember! -AO will be the driving factor for a cold East! After Thanksgiving and on through Christmas! Locked in! Warm strat over poles = cold East, etc, etc, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 18z gfs actually looks good. would be nice if that progression did occur. legit -nao development. decent moisture laden systems with mountain snow. also, pna ridge toward end of run. too bad odds are its a mirage run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 00z GFS coming in really, really cold. Reason being is a cutoff low just spins over the SE, delivering snow to the Appalachians, 12"+ in areas of NC mountains and WV (OK, Ok...I didn't wan to say it but that 29.2 Max? Yeah that's in NC not WV.) It was bound to happen if you've noticed the modeling in the last 24 hours, the 0c 850 "tongue" has been trending further and further south on Euro ensembles and GEFS runs. The 00z run has 0c 850's in Central Florida. Sure, that's most likely overdone and it could be fools gold, but it bears watching how the models start to handle the pacific and where the pacific low ends up. The good thing is we're seeing at least a chance for BN temps and the white stuff, specifically for the Apps. Bad news is GEFS 500mb maps for days 10-15 isn't really promising, as it rids the pacific low (great!) but replaces it with a +EPO/GOA low (crap!)...which would just turn the pattern back to a mild one. We'll have to wait and see if the models once again back off this round of cold. I don't expect the snow from the 00z run to be seen on the 06z run, so save it and throw it up on your wallpaper and pray to the snow gods...but it's a nice start to a streak of abysmal model runs we've seen lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 I'll add - as far as last half of November pattern is concerned, the trend in teleconnections have hinted at cold, or at least normal temps...not warmth. For Nov 19+.... Teleconnection: Forecast -> Cold/Warm/Neutral in SE (Based on November Climatology) AO: Neutral -> Cold NAO: Neutral -> Cold PNA: Neutral/Neg trending Positive -> Normal trending Cold EPO: Negative (before popping that super positive late on the 00z GFS OP) -> Cold WPO: Negative -> Normal, Cold in some areas. If anything, it's something to watch. I have a feeling the next Euro Weeklies could throw us a bone. But like most, I'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 12, 2016 Author Share Posted November 12, 2016 42.6" of snow on the GFS for western NC (wxbell) 7 days out....two more days and I am pulling out the thread. Less than .5" in the foothills and into SC but this setup favors areas down toward Asheville vs Mount Airy for any snowfall surprise. Lots of hangover moisture could see showers of rain/sleet/flurries even out into the western Piedmont. Any mod want to challenge me on creating this thread please send me a private message now not going to deal with the political correctness as we get closer to this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 32 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: 42.6" of snow on the GFS for western NC (wxbell) 7 days out....two more days and I am pulling out the thread. Less than .5" in the foothills and into SC but this setup favors areas down toward Asheville vs Mount Airy for any snowfall surprise. Lots of hangover moisture could see showers of rain/sleet/flurries even out into the western Piedmont. Any mod want to challenge me on creating this thread please send me a private message now not going to deal with the political correctness as we get closer to this storm. Lol! It's one model run!! Go for it, fire up the thread! I promise it won't get locked! Or deleted! The end of Nov does look cooler and wetter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 12 hours ago, Jon said: 00z GFS coming in really, really cold. Reason being is a cutoff low just spins over the SE, delivering snow to the Appalachians, 12"+ in areas of NC mountains and WV (OK, Ok...I didn't wan to say it but that 29.2 Max? Yeah that's in NC not WV.) It was bound to happen if you've noticed the modeling in the last 24 hours, the 0c 850 "tongue" has been trending further and further south on Euro ensembles and GEFS runs. The 00z run has 0c 850's in Central Florida. Sure, that's most likely overdone and it could be fools gold, but it bears watching how the models start to handle the pacific and where the pacific low ends up. The good thing is we're seeing at least a chance for BN temps and the white stuff, specifically for the Apps. Bad news is GEFS 500mb maps for days 10-15 isn't really promising, as it rids the pacific low (great!) but replaces it with a +EPO/GOA low (crap!)...which would just turn the pattern back to a mild one. We'll have to wait and see if the models once again back off this round of cold. I don't expect the snow from the 00z run to be seen on the 06z run, so save it and throw it up on your wallpaper and pray to the snow gods...but it's a nice start to a streak of abysmal model runs we've seen lately. If that were to hold true, which it probably won't, thats a half inch in the northwest burbs of Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 12, 2016 Author Share Posted November 12, 2016 44 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Lol! It's one model run!! Go for it, fire up the thread! I promise it won't get locked! Or deleted! The end of Nov does look cooler and wetter! It's two model runs actually and I have been constantly saying the end of November and some of December will feature our best chances of winter weather ALL winter. I will pull the thread before it endangers the lives of people in western starting 5 days out. No sooner. 2 more days to ago. I'm watching it. I'm watching everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 12, 2016 Author Share Posted November 12, 2016 12z GFS snowy for the high country. Well worth a chase. 3rd run in row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 1 hour ago, NWNC2015 said: 12z GFS snowy for the high country. Well worth a chase. 3rd run in row. I suggest you leave now so you don't miss it. The best spots are deep in the woods with no internet access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 9 hours ago, NWNC2015 said: 42.6" of snow on the GFS for western NC (wxbell) 7 days out....two more days and I am pulling out the thread. Less than .5" in the foothills and into SC but this setup favors areas down toward Asheville vs Mount Airy for any snowfall surprise. Lots of hangover moisture could see showers of rain/sleet/flurries even out into the western Piedmont. Any mod want to challenge me on creating this thread please send me a private message now not going to deal with the political correctness as we get closer to this storm. Too funny..... I see plenty of time-outs in your future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 We should start a thread for tomorrow's rain event! I havnt seen a raindrop in 36 days! Any rain or drizzle will be a blessing and maybe the very earl stages of a more active and wetter pattern in the coming weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 13 hours ago, NWNC2015 said: 42.6" of snow on the GFS for western NC (wxbell) 7 days out....two more days and I am pulling out the thread. Less than .5" in the foothills and into SC but this setup favors areas down toward Asheville vs Mount Airy for any snowfall surprise. Lots of hangover moisture could see showers of rain/sleet/flurries even out into the western Piedmont. Any mod want to challenge me on creating this thread please send me a private message now not going to deal with the political correctness as we get closer to this storm. I'm challenging you. Since you made the announcement public the challenge will be the same. There will be no thread on this in two days. You are only here because we let you slide in under a new name after banning you. The hope was you had grown up a bit. In addition, I suggest you remove your childish signature or tomorrow afternoon you will be gone again and this time there will be no reprieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 The indices really do look great, I'm surprised I'm the only one barking about them. The AO is set to tank the last half of the month on all of the major models and their ensembles NAO also looks to tank, same time period - Even if it's delayed some, this is a good sign as we head into December. -AO/-NAO in Nov and December is Cold (duh). I think those who thought November would be AN are now thinking otherwise, it's looking like BN will be a sure thing (it would be hard to be AN given current indices and modeling)...EPO is still looking to go negative Nov 20th as well, +PNA to show up around Nov 18-20th, timing differs depending on the model. All favor cold in November & to begin December. I won't be shocked if the seasonal models start picking up on this and start throwing out colder forecasts for Dec. We'll have to continue to watch the trend in the indices and see how long or if at all these can be sustained for any length of time, but for now, I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Yeah Jon iv been looking at this time frame also but the models keep lessening the cold front next week to near nothing at this point. even our rain chances have evaporated. We really need the EPO to come through. The PV is weak so that is good. indices do look good out towards the end of the month . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Jon - signs of -AO, and especially -NAO, are always good. However, over the past month and a half, the 10 to 15 day -NAO indicators have failed to come to fruition. So we need to see it to believe it. The Pacific side pattern is a flawed one with troughing developing from the Aleutians to off the West Coast. We can have some cool downs in the SE with that pattern, but it's not one I'd want to see in Dec unless we had a massive -NAO to counteract it (like Dec 2010). As for Dec, I think all we can do is speculate at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 The gfs continues to pull the trough more north next weekend . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Jon - signs of -AO, and especially -NAO, are always good. However, over the past month and a half, the 10 to 15 day -NAO indicators have failed to come to fruition. So we need to see it to believe it. The Pacific side pattern is a flawed one with troughing developing from the Aleutians to off the West Coast. We can have some cool downs in the SE with that pattern, but it's not one I'd want to see in Dec unless we had a massive -NAO to counteract it (like Dec 2010). As for Dec, I think all we can do is speculate at this point.Yeah, I'm hoping the pacific just works itself out. We could luck out with a +PNA and a decent and/or massive block to overwhelm it and disrupt the flow, but like you said I'd rather not see that Pac trough at all. But when we have a pattern like this it's almost all we can hope for. Models seem to throw in the idea of getting rid of it only to bring it back in future runs. If the indices work out and aren't fools gold, we may have a chance to fix the pacific for Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 27 minutes ago, Jon said: Yeah, I'm hoping the pacific just works itself out. We could luck out with a +PNA and a decent and/or massive block to overwhelm it and disrupt the flow, but like you said I'd rather not see that Pac trough at all. But when we have a pattern like this it's almost all we can hope for. Models seem to throw in the idea of getting rid of it only to bring it back in future runs. If the indices work out and aren't fools gold, we may have a chance to fix the pacific for Dec. First uber long range fantasy snow of the year on the GFS for parts of NC, actually looks kinda reasonable......would be nice if that was the dominate storm track this year, once we get into Dec and the cold air gets better that could be the ticket...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 On 11/12/2016 at 0:28 PM, J.C. said: If that were to hold true, which it probably won't, thats a half inch in the northwest burbs of Atlanta. We did get some snow the day before Thanksgiving back in 2013 so it wouldn't be too out of the question if it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 14, 2016 Author Share Posted November 14, 2016 maga winter storm end of the 6z gfs run snow greensboro raleigh mix charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Wow, a fantasy storm showing up before December. That's already better than last winter. It was like pulling teeth to even get any storms at all to show up in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 31 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Wow, a fantasy storm showing up before December. That's already better than last winter. It was like pulling teeth to even get any storms at all to show up in the long range. 12z is very interesting as well. Definitely a cold look with a fantasy potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 1 minute ago, SimeonNC said: Can anyone say "fab December" It's what I'm hoping for. I've said before that I have a feeling we need to score early (Dec to mid January) this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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