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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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2 hours ago, jburns said:

Really?  Nah. They'll be back in the spring just like every other year.

Aren't we sort of near the northern extent of the fire ant range? Obviously most bug populations won't be wiped out, but some will. However I'll really root for extreme cold if it kills the palm trees people try to grow. That's not a problem in Norman (where it went below 0 in 2011), but I've seen a few in Durham.

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Another frost potential coming up; but that elusive hard freeze is still a ways out:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

Thursday will be the warmest day. Increasing SW-W flow will bring
highs well above early November normals by 15+ degrees. Highs of 80-
85 are expected.

The timing of the next cold front appears to be narrowing within the
model suite to late Thursday into Thursday night. Models are also
showing a good chance of showers, mainly along or just behind the
front for a narrow window of time (mainly in the evening hours).
However, significant rain is not expected as amounts are forecast to
be less than 0.25 of an inch, with the possibility of less than
0.10 of an inch.

Drier and cooler air will follow for Friday as a large sprawling
surface high pressure (1035+ mb) is forecast to build from southern
Canada into the Midwest late week, then across the Appalachians by
the weekend into early next week with an extended dry period again.

Some scattered frost is likely again across the Piedmont this
weekend and early next week with lows in the mid 30s. Highs should
hold in the 60s Friday through early next week in most if not all
but the southern tier, which may reach 70.


 

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7 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Yeah thats not gonna happen. That would be like a once in a lifetime event for early November.

Not really just looking at Little Rock recent history...and I'm sure there are more favored elevations away from the city that see a little more.

Story_3793834_ver1.0.jpg

November 12 2014 - Trace 

November 11 1976 - Trace

November 7 1991 - 1.3 inches

November 5 1995 - Trace

November 4 1992 - Trace 

November 1 1991 - Trace 

October 30 1993 - Trace 

October 29 1993 - 0.2 inches

 

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1 hour ago, NWNC2015 said:

surprised not much talk about the 12z gfs

2" of water for my backyard next week, possibly severe, and backside snow potential 1-2" Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi 

The 18z is totally different and is probably right with it's MUCH drier look. Any rain on it is at day 15-16 and is under 1 inch and over a small area. I don't expect much rain until after Thanksgiving anywhere in the southeast. Not as cold as 12z either.

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0z GFS is rocky...cold shots and hot shots. No sustained warmth but storm track can bring +20 degree anomalies at times. Periods of MTN snow when the East is cool and the West is baking. No sustained snow depth with cold/hot bouncing back and fourth from West Coast and East Coast....limited to the Rocky Mountains.

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27 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

0z GFS is rocky...cold shots and hot shots. No sustained warmth but storm track can bring +20 degree anomalies at times. Periods of MTN snow when the East is cool and the West is baking. No sustained snow depth with cold/hot bouncing back and fourth from West Coast and East Coast....limited to the Rocky Mountains.

I'm sure as usual there will be +20 anomalies but -20 anomalies will be hard to come by.

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16 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I'm sure as usual there will be +20 anomalies but -20 anomalies will be hard to come by.

didn't see anything close to +20 anomalies on the 0z GFS I just looked at.. more BN than above as time goes on. 

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39 minutes ago, jshetley said:

The 6z GFS says we stay basically dry right through day 16. Any talk of a change to a wetter pattern anytime soon is total BS.

LOL its one out of like the last 6-7 runs or so that doesn't give your back yard a few inches of rain over the next 16 days and of course this is the one you latch on to...the pattern is certainly going to change and its gonna be wetter....it might not be till later in the period but its coming.

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I wonder if we'll get a severe threat in late November around here like we sometimes do. Not sure if we can tell with the pattern we have been having if that is more or less likely to happen. I guess if we continue the roller coaster ride with the temps it is more likely to happen as we get closer to the end of the month and the switch over to winter begins. 

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4 hours ago, jshetley said:

The 6z GFS says we stay basically dry right through day 16. Any talk of a change to a wetter pattern anytime soon is total BS.

The pattern has to Chang with the indices going the way they are. negative AO, negative NAO and a positive PNA. Something has to give. The models are all over the place after day 5 so I wouldn't worry about day 16 for that matter. I think November could be a whole month of change.

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25 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The pattern has to Chang with the indices going the way they are. negative AO, negative NAO and a positive PNA. Something has to give. The models are all over the place after day 5 so I wouldn't worry about day 16 for that matter. I think November could be a whole month of change.

It'll be colder than October, with 2 or 3 decent cold frontal passages, but precip will be very hard to come by. The upper 70's into the 80's should be gone after tomorrow for quite some time. It's likely one of those fronts is strong enough for at least a small NW upslope snow event too, especially after Nov 15.

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Ensembles are weakening the North Pac low beginning around Nov 15th.  That date has been getting pushed out on the model runs, but in the past few days, the runs are holding a bit more and not pushing the date out.  We'll see, it could just be a temporary thing where the models resume with the delay.  Anyway, as the N Pac low weakens, some western ridging goes up, and we start to see some below normal temps show up (850mb) via central to eastern U.S. troughing.  GFS Ensemble doesn't really build the W Coast ridging and is the warmest of the 3 (Canadian / Euro).

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