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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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10 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Well if Nov is going to finish BN it's going to have to be frigid the last half.  First 7-10 days looks solidly AN.   When will this end....

IMG_2982.PNG

Yeah absolutely no cold air in sight. The only thing I can think of is I'm hoping the indices are correct for the second half of November.  

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27 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I personally would rather see a warm first half, cold second half for November. Goes along with my belief that a cold start for December leads to a good winter (..many times).  

Yeah I like this idea also. Iv seen very warm first half Novembers turn into great patterns for December on.

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

I personally would rather see a warm first half, cold second half for November. Goes along with my belief that a cold start for December leads to a good winter (..many times).  

 

56 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah I like this idea also. Iv seen very warm first half Novembers turn into great patterns for December on.

Yeah same here, its no guarantee but lots of times warm through Thanksgiving equals good Dec/Jan which climo wise is the best for us to get the big snows.....2010 was like that....warm all the way through Thanksgiving and then it flipped and Dec/Jan where pretty epic. 

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1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

 

Yeah same here, its no guarantee but lots of times warm through Thanksgiving equals good Dec/Jan which climo wise is the best for us to get the big snows.....2010 was like that....warm all the way through Thanksgiving and then it flipped and Dec/Jan where pretty epic. 

Yeah we had a cold very cold December with a huge snow on Christmas. Then another huge snow like a week later.

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

No the cold air advance got delayed on the 0z. We now need an hour 408 map....

Too funny....Good ole GFS is at it again. Don't worry, winter will come guys. Hey, look at it on the bright side. At least e didn't have that late October snowstorm curse this year. It promises to be a good winter. Mid to late November is my target for seeing how the winter pattern will unfold. We shall see....

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30 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Too funny....Good ole GFS is at it again. Don't worry, winter will come guys. Hey, look at it on the bright side. At least e didn't have that late October snowstorm curse this year. It promises to be a good winter. Mid to late November is my target for seeing how the winter pattern will unfold. We shall see....

I agree. There's two sets of thoughts for cold weather (which most on here are a fan of); 1) Get it cold now, I don't care what time of year it is. 2) Weather patterns lengthen in the winter so wait for the optimal time for the cold to take hold.

I'm the #2 guy. Over the years I've noticed that a late November/early December cold pattern tends to lead to a good winter.  

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

I agree. There's two sets of thoughts for cold weather (which most on here are a fan of); 1) Get it cold now, I don't care what time of year it is. 2) Weather patterns lengthen in the winter so wait for the optimal time for the cold to take hold.

I'm the #2 guy. Over the years I've noticed that a late November/early December cold pattern tends to lead to a good winter.  

Actually it seems that there is a fair number of people on this board who are of the opinion that if it isn't snowing they would rather it be 65 F all winter.  To those people I have this to say: poo.

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By the way, i was over at Wunderground reading Jeff Master's article on the current warm spell (is it just me or does he really gloat during warm spells?) and I did see a mention of hints of possible breakdown in the polar vortex, which could give us some hope at least.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/scary-warm-welcome-to-the-halloween-heat-wave-of-2016

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43 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

By the way, i was over at Wunderground reading Jeff Master's article on the current warm spell (is it just me or does he really gloat during warm spells?) and I did see a mention of hints of possible breakdown in the polar vortex, which could give us some hope at least.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/scary-warm-welcome-to-the-halloween-heat-wave-of-2016

If I'm not mistaken the polar vortex is very weak and I think trying to split. I also saw an article that says the polar vortex is going to be weaker than normal so that may lead to more cold outbreaks.  

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4 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Actually it seems that there is a fair number of people on this board who are of the opinion that if it isn't snowing they would rather it be 65 F all winter.  To those people I have this to say: poo.

:clap:

Winter should be cold.  If we get snow, then that's even better.  If you want 65 or greater, then there's a state called Florida that can oblige.  :D

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12 minutes ago, PisgahNCWeather said:

Amen on the cold. The colder the better and if it snows that is just a bonus. Done the Florida thing for 38 years and it's weather is just plain miserable and boring. Rooting for another 1985 Siberian Express to plow thru the Southeast. Rant over

'83, '85, '89 or anything close would be nice here in the north FL area !!!! But I keep rootin' for 1899   :mapsnow: 'though not likely (I'm a realist but an eternal hoper)

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17 minutes ago, PisgahNCWeather said:

Amen on the cold. The colder the better and if it snows that is just a bonus. Done the Florida thing for 38 years and it's weather is just plain miserable and boring. Rooting for another 1985 Siberian Express to plow thru the Southeast. Rant over

This years predominate pattern with la nina may allow more brutal cold air intrusions deep into the US (cross-polar flow -->Siberian Express). But as we all know cold air is no guarantee of a winter storm.  

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3 hours ago, jshetley said:

What good is getting down into the single digits and teens if you can't get precip with it. I'd take a winter like December of last year anytime over a boring cold and dry one.

It kills bugs and overly sensitive vegetation. Plus it can cause ice to form on ponds. Another 1783-84-style cold snap and we can all go ice skating from Charelston, SC north. I only see your point when it comes to extreme cold. For example, Oklahoma City had a mean temp of 27.4 F in February 1899 and onlyi 1.6" of snow. It would have been much better if 18" of snow had fallen on the first of 11 consecutive days without a high above 32.

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~jsmerdon/papers/2011_grl_darrigoetal.pdf

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