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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion

NWNC2015

By NWNC2015,
in Southeastern States

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HWY316wx

HWY316wx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/12/2016 at 10:30 PM, mackerel_sky said:

That map is staying pretty consistent on focusing the " heavier " precip from Athensish to Greenville ish!? Atleast it is a Saturday 

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I agree, however the warming out in front of the event may not allow that actually to accumulate.  Should be interesting to watch for sure.  For me though, I am just happy to have something to follow.  

Lookout should be along here shortly.  Starting to show up in his neck of the woods pretty good.  He's good on these CAD events as well.

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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted
  On 12/12/2016 at 10:45 PM, J.C. said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_19.png

 

Pretty interesting look, I've never seen that strong of a wedge without some moisture around.  

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If that verifies and you get just the right precip rate, the wedge would be very slow to erode and many areas would get a major icestorm. The area from Gainesville GA up through the GSP metro to Hickory and 30-40 miles either side of that line could be hard hit. These wedges almost never break when models say they will. 

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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted
  On 12/12/2016 at 9:48 PM, FallsLake said:

I really hope your right. Back in November I was thinking this would be a front end winter. I suppose December can still end up below normal but it would be terrible if this ended up being the best part of winter. As pack showed above nina is fading so maybe the backend of winter now has a chance.

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If that LaNina does fade on out maybe next summer will not be as hot and dry as I had been thinking. The rest of winter might turn out ok too.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
  On 12/12/2016 at 11:01 PM, jshetley said:

If that verifies and you get just the right precip rate, the wedge would be very slow to erode and many areas would get a major icestorm. The area from Gainesville GA up through the GSP metro to Hickory and 30-40 miles either side of that line could be hard hit. These wedges almost never break when models say they will. 

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Good point! It looks to be light precip and that accumulates best, slow and steady build up! Too heavy and most just falls off of surfaces and warms temps through the latent heat release!

worse case scenario is a steady light rain, and temps get stuck in the 28-30 degree range for awhile! If timing is perfect, could really get interesting! 

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
  On 12/12/2016 at 11:33 PM, jshetley said:

Something else to watch for along I-85 and south. GSP says we may have severe thunderstorms on Sunday with an environment like we had not long ago when the tornado hit Simpsonville. That's 6 days out, but may be worth watching.

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I hope not! Our neighborhood is still in shambles!

 

in regards to the Saturday event, if you want ice, we need it to be clear until about 5 am, then thick clouds roll in and get precip by 7am and winds stay NE, if they turn E or SE, the air will moisten up to quickly 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
  On 12/12/2016 at 11:41 PM, mackerel_sky said:

I hope not! Our neighborhood is still in shambles!

 

in regards to the Saturday event, if you want ice, we need it to be clear until about 5 am, then thick clouds roll in and get precip by 7am and winds stay NE, if they turn E or SE, the air will moisten up to quickly 

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Usually what happens is you get clear skies till 5:00 PM and the precip is delayed until 7:00 AM, at which point it falls extremely lightly and allows the dp to rise and meet the air temp, which is now around 46.

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted
  On 12/12/2016 at 11:54 PM, Cold Rain said:

Usually what happens is you get clear skies till 5:00 PM and the precip is delayed until 7:00 AM, at which point it falls extremely lightly and allows the dp to rise and meet the air temp, which is now around 46.

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Optimism knows no bounds.

But why in the world would anyone want ice to begin with? Perhaps it is Elly Mae's 1st cousin to snow?

I know, I know - it is pretty. But ice can also be very ugly. (Like Claudine and Pearl)

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted
  On 12/12/2016 at 11:54 PM, Cold Rain said:

Usually what happens is you get clear skies till 5:00 PM and the precip is delayed until 7:00 AM, at which point it falls extremely lightly and allows the dp to rise and meet the air temp, which is now around 46.

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That about sums it up...lol. In reality, it all comes down to the wet-bulb temps at the onset and the precip rates. It doesn't really matter when it gets cloudy or when it starts. If you're wondering whether temps will be cold enough, evaluate the wet-bulbs.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2016 at 12:17 AM, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I have a question. Why does that map show freezing rain well south of Gainesville but 20 miles north of Gainesville here in Dahlonega its shows rain ? I'm not familar with this area, is it not a good area for CAD ?

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No! Too far north! You keep moving to snowless places! SnowlessinDahlonega!

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J.C.

J.C.

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2016 at 12:17 AM, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I have a question. Why does that map show freezing rain well south of Gainesville but 20 miles north of Gainesville here in Dahlonega its shows rain ? I'm not familar with this area, is it not a good area for CAD ?

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I'm no expert, but I can tell you that Dahlonega sits over 1400' in elevation, whereas Gainesville is 1200', and Athens is 750'.  If the cold is shallow enough the models could indicate that somewhere between 1200-1400' it will climb above freezing.  The only reason I say this is I have made the drop on US 25 coming down from Bat Cave, NC into Greenville County South Carolina and the ice accumulation started somewhere around 1100-1200 feet of elevation during a past ice storm.  It was really strange to see it that way.

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Snowless in Carrollton

Snowless in Carrollton

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2016 at 1:15 AM, J.C. said:

I'm no expert, but I can tell you that Dahlonega sits over 1400' in elevation, whereas Gainesville is 1200', and Athens is 750'.  If the cold is shallow enough the models could indicate that somewhere between 1200-1400' it will climb above freezing.  The only reason I say this is I have made the drop on US 25 coming down from Bat Cave, NC into Greenville County South Carolina and the ice accumulation started somewhere around 1100-1200 feet of elevation during a past ice storm.  It was really strange to see it that way.

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That's crazy. I'm at 1350' but the bottom of my hill is around 1100'. I guess they could get an ice storm at the bottom of my hill while I'm stuck with rain.

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J.C.

J.C.

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2016 at 1:25 AM, Snowless in Carrollton said:

That's crazy. I'm at 1350' but the bottom of my hill is around 1100'. I guess they could get an ice storm at the bottom of my hill while I'm stuck with rain.

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I've also seen Dahlonega get 4" inches of very wet snow at 34F while it rained in Dawsonville, so pick your poison I guess.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2016 at 1:16 AM, Stormcatt said:

I saw on the other board that HM says any cold relax won't last long

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 

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Is HM related to JB, or is he legit!?

somebody in the MA forum, showed what appeared to be a CMC ensemble map for Saturday, and there were a lot of pretty icy solutions for cad areas

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Stormcatt

Stormcatt

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2016 at 1:29 AM, mackerel_sky said:
Is HM related to JB, or is he legit!?

somebody in the MA forum, showed what appeared to be a CMC ensemble map for Saturday, and there were a lot of pretty icy solutions for cad areas


lol is this a serious question? HM smokes JB and tells it how it is. my favorite met there is

Says the tropical forcing is giving the models the impression there will be a huge positive epo. says it's wrong and won't last long

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

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Snowless in Carrollton

Snowless in Carrollton

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2016 at 1:34 AM, J.C. said:

I used to live in Paulding County for 8 years and worked all over the state.  

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Oh ok. I lived in Carrollton for over 35 years and have only lived here for about 4 months so i'm not familiar with what winters are like here. I haven't seen snow in almost 3 years so i'm hoping being a little further north plus a few hundred feet higher will help. But at least i'm close to some 3,000' elevations so I could go on a snow chase.

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drfranklin

drfranklin

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2016 at 1:15 AM, J.C. said:

I'm no expert, but I can tell you that Dahlonega sits over 1400' in elevation, whereas Gainesville is 1200', and Athens is 750'.  If the cold is shallow enough the models could indicate that somewhere between 1200-1400' it will climb above freezing.  The only reason I say this is I have made the drop on US 25 coming down from Bat Cave, NC into Greenville County South Carolina and the ice accumulation started somewhere around 1100-1200 feet of elevation during a past ice storm.  It was really strange to see it that way.

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This Saturday will be one of the rare(r) days that Greenville, SC is colder than Asheville - our local television meteorologists are always anxious with upcoming CAD events LOL - they have to cover both Upstate SC and Western NC markets (Greenville, SC and Asheville are both in the same television market - my ABC station is out of Asheville)

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Snowless in Carrollton

Snowless in Carrollton

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2016 at 1:47 AM, whamby said:

Over the long haul you're just going to see a lot more snow than anyone south of Gainesville Ga. No question.. Even more than CHA I'd imagine. 

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I'm guessing this area sees about the same amount of snow as Greenville on average. I may be wrong though.

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J.C.

J.C.

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2016 at 1:47 AM, drfranklin said:

This Saturday will be one of the rare(r) days that Greenville, SC is colder than Asheville - our local television meteorologists are always anxious with upcoming CAD events LOL - they have to cover both Upstate SC and Western NC markets (Greenville, SC and Asheville are both in the same television market - my ABC station is out of Asheville)

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Yep! Very familiar, I grew up on Hartwell Lake until I was 19 years old.  WLOS, WYFF, WSPA...

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