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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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  On 12/11/2016 at 4:27 AM, griteater said:

00z GFS another warm cutter. Canadian another significant ice storm down into NE GA

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  On 12/11/2016 at 4:27 AM, griteater said:

00z GFS another warm cutter. Canadian another significant ice storm down into NE GA

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Thanks Grit for always chiming in 0z and 12z. Hopefully the Can and Euro can stand their ground. We'll be  crossing the 5 day out mark tommorow and from that point on in its the euro and EPS wheelhouse. 

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  On 12/11/2016 at 4:36 AM, mackerel_sky said:

Atleast they are consistent! I hope the GFS is consistently wrong! It looks GFS is trying to come around to the others?

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I'm not seeing it budge much at all thus far.  West coast wave is kicking out slower and farther north...with NE high kicking out quicker

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  On 12/11/2016 at 4:35 AM, NCSNOW said:

Thanks Grit for always chiming in 0z and 12z. Hopefully the Can and Euro can stand their ground. We'll be  crossing the 5 day out mark tommorow and from that point on in its the euro and EPS wheelhouse. 

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You got it man.  GFS has a cold high drop down after the warm cutter, then has another system that cuts west of the Apps....light ice to rain hr 252-264

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  On 12/11/2016 at 5:02 AM, NCSNOW said:
Getting an early start on that Surry county eggnog I see.


Lol. Pull back for everybody after next weeks cold shot for Christmas week. but especially the southeast overall most of the country stays cold after Christmas week but the Southeast it looks toasty!! Another drink please


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  On 12/11/2016 at 4:51 AM, BIG FROSTY said:

Not biting till GFS makes a move toward Can/Euro. GFS been pretty good lately!!! JB video tonight looks warm warm and more warm for the SE.


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As long as his cult$ in the NE and Mid ATL, think it'll be cold, then he's good

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  On 12/11/2016 at 5:05 AM, BIG FROSTY said:


Lol. Pull back for everybody after next weeks cold shot for Christmas week. but especially the southeast overall most of the country stays cold after Christmas week but the Southeast it looks toasty!! Another drink please emoji1335.png


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Hopefully we can get some white on the ground before Christmas. I'd settle for sleet. See if gfs ens try to trend more toward foreign guidance.

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UKMet is a bit more wintry looking this run.  It's more similar to the Canadian except that the NE high isn't as strong and it's off the coast here at 144....wedge signature in place though and overrunning likely beginning to breakout at this point into the cold wedge.  UKMet is fairly suppressed with the southern low in TX.

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  On 12/11/2016 at 5:08 AM, NCSNOW said:

Hopefully we can get some white on the ground before Christmas. I'd settle for sleet. See if gfs ens try to trend more toward foreign guidance.

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 He said if he could change his dec. forecast he would move the AN line up to NC  not just Florida.

Eastern Fight Reminiscent of 2013 · 

 

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  On 12/11/2016 at 5:17 AM, BIG FROSTY said:

Here's is what it looks like, He said if he could change his dec. forecast he would move the AN line up to NC  not just Florida.

 

 

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For whole month of Dec? wow, I haven't checked but we should be runing at or slightly bn if not by now, definetly by end of this next week. Time will tell. My hopes are for getting on the board next weekend. Right now we're at 0.0 in the frozen precip.Thanks for sharing, always interested in jbs opinions.

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It's all going to come down to where the LP goes. All models have a CAD signature and a HP in New England. Only difference is that the GFS wants the send the LP to Iowa and then to the Great Lakes whereas the CMC, UK (it appears), and the Euro want to send it through the Tenn Valley thus slinging precip into the area before the CAD retreats. All in all the CAD will be in place, the question mark will be the tracjectory of the LP. 

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  On 12/11/2016 at 5:29 AM, NCSNOW said:

Notice the ukmet has a 950 lp up in eastern Canada on grits pics but canadian doesnt. must be why hp holds on stronger on the canadian. but you'd figure the opposite would happen.

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Trough axis on UKMet is centered off Newfoundland, while on Canadian there's a trough there east of Maine...subtle difference, but that's aiding in the confluent flow there and holding in the sfc high longer, and stronger

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