griteater Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 The wave ends up going neg tilt too soon, sfc low heads north into N MS at 231...ice in VA. Let's get that kind of airmass in here and roll the dice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 That's the kind of big sprawling arctic blast we need to get wintry potential in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 On 12/8/2016 at 4:41 AM, griteater said: The wave ends up going neg tilt too soon, sfc low heads north into N MS at 231...ice in VA. Let's get that kind of airmass in here and roll the dice Expand Yep big time cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 JB is going to be sloshing in his bathtub with that kind of cold showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Canadian not quite as impressive with the arctic blast, but some cold air across the 'northern south' with icing in NC and VA similar timeframe as GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 On 12/8/2016 at 5:06 AM, griteater said: Canadian not quite as impressive with the arctic blast, but some cold air across the 'northern south' with icing in NC and VA similar timeframe as GFS Expand Too bad it's 240hrs, has a 1040 high plus a nice wedge with Ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Nothing exciting on the EURO unless you like cold-warm-rain-cold...I can feel December fading away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 On 12/8/2016 at 7:16 AM, Jonathan said: Nothing exciting on the EURO unless you like cold-warm-rain-cold...I can feel December fading away. Expand That's life in the southeast. Gotta love it. On a positive note, it's looking pretty good for our friends in the Ohio Valley and Northeast. I'm hearing word of a possible triple phaser ? Fun times ahead ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 On 12/8/2016 at 7:16 AM, Jonathan said: Nothing exciting on the EURO unless you like cold-warm-rain-cold...I can feel December fading away. Expand When did JShetley move to Virginia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 JB talking slosh again: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 On 12/8/2016 at 10:51 AM, mackerel_sky said: When did JShetley move to Virginia? Expand No shetley here, because I acknowledged the rain we're definitely getting. (And the cold) One good thing about this pattern is that the southeast drought will likely be busted by the end of the month. Keep it coming. Just can't get the cold and the liquid at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 On 12/8/2016 at 12:59 PM, FallsLake said: JB talking slosh again: Expand what is the slosh theory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 The good news is the GFS and EC are pointing toward a possible +PNA/-AO developing by day 10. Perhaps things will align just right for Santa to bring us a special wintry present this Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Arctic outbreaks don't really get me too excited anyway. Maybe I'm wrong in my thinking but they don't seem to do us much good as far as snow is concerned. All they end up doing is pushing any LP that tries to come close to us to Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 On 12/8/2016 at 1:18 PM, mrdaddyman said: Arctic outbreaks of cold air don't really get me too excited anyway. Maybe I'm wrong but they don't seem to do us much good as far as snow is concerned. All they end up doing is pushing any LP that tries to come close to us to Cuba. Expand The ingredient we are usually lacking in the SE for a winter storm, is cold air. So give me lots of cold availability in Canada and North of us and I'll take my chances! Can't have a winter storm without cold air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 On 12/8/2016 at 1:12 PM, TiltedStorm said: what is the slosh theory? Expand It's his weird way of saying when all the cold is on one side of the earth and it's really warm on the other side ( us for most of the fall) the cold has to " slosh" over here sooner or later! Hes been honking his bathtub theory since November, he may finally be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 On 12/8/2016 at 12:59 PM, FallsLake said: JB talking slosh again: Expand Look at the wedge, even showing up in the bathtub!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 On 12/8/2016 at 1:12 PM, TiltedStorm said: what is the slosh theory? Expand Basically that the cold to the west will eventually be able to push towards the east (..cold dense air can undercut warmer air masses) even as most models show this not occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 On 12/8/2016 at 1:24 PM, mackerel_sky said: It's his weird way of saying when all the cold is on one side of the earth and it's really warm on the other side ( us for most of the fall) the cold has to " slosh" over here sooner or later! Hes been honking his bathtub theory since November, he may finally be right Expand Yep, better than how I explained it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 On 12/8/2016 at 1:16 PM, Poimen said: The good news is the GFS and EC are pointing toward a possible +PNA/-AO developing by day 10. Perhaps things will align just right for Santa to bring us a special wintry present this Christmas. Expand 00z Euro as you've pointed out first one to show a -AO/-NAO/+PNA/-EPO showing up around the ~18th time frame, GFS a little late after the 20-22nd...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherfan2 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Could we actually get a White Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 On 12/8/2016 at 2:32 PM, Weatherfan2 said: Could we actually get a White Christmas?no Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Is the slosh theory found in any peer reviewed literature or is this just a JB thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 On 12/8/2016 at 3:33 PM, LithiaWx said: Is the slosh theory found in any peer reviewed literature or is this just a JB thing? Expand Definitely a JB special. On another note, the GEFS shows the MJO trying to peek out of the circle of death in the phase 7-8 area. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 On 12/8/2016 at 3:39 PM, Jonathan said: Definitely a JB special. On another note, the GEFS shows the MJO trying to peek out of the circle of death in the phase 7-8 area. FWIW Expand Dude is such a disgrace to science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 On 12/8/2016 at 2:32 PM, Weatherfan2 said: Could we actually get a White Christmas? Expand Probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 On 12/8/2016 at 3:45 PM, Jon said: Probably not. Expand 2010 Xmas says Hola!!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 On 12/8/2016 at 3:33 PM, LithiaWx said: Is the slosh theory found in any peer reviewed literature or is this just a JB thing? Expand Actually the bathtub theorem applies to economics. I learned about it in Macroeconomics. It's said that the national income of any given country or economy is like the line of water in a bathtub. The water level rises with an inflow of production and creativity and the drops with consumption. Changes in national income are also explained by the growth of exports which leads to an inflow of money and growth in imports which in turn leads to an outflow of money. The national income therefore is a function of exports, imports,, production, and consumption with each part specifically contributing to the rise and fall of the bathtub, i.e., the economy. Never heard it explained for weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I'm a little interested in the system Sunday night. Most models and forecast currently have the temps just above freezing when precip moves in, but we'll be dealing with very cold/dry air which models tend to have difficultly moving out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Most likely nothing to come of this but here's the 12z NAM for dew points and simulated radar at hour 78 (again dew points could hold stronger): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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