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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion

NWNC2015

By NWNC2015,
in Southeastern States

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2016 at 9:13 PM, Jonathan said:

Everything I've read says we need that omega ridge near Alaska to get outta there. EPO stays positive and NAO stays neutral.

 

At least the PV looks to split and give us a -AO, I guess.

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Some of the souths biggest winter storms have occurred with a neutral NAO, or even +NAO! It's not the only thing that matters!

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Jonathan

Jonathan

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2016 at 9:34 PM, mackerel_sky said:

Some of the souths biggest winter storms have occurred with a neutral NAO, or even +NAO! It's not the only thing that matters!

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True, but the +EPO keeps the Pac jet dominating. Lots of cutters. Need the PJ coming down over a ridge out west instead of right onshore.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2016 at 9:40 PM, Stormcatt said:


glad you didn't mention the dumpster fire at the end of the eps

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 

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This, whatever the next 10-12 days is, will break down and we probably go back to all out torch for a period of time.  Just a matter of time.  Hopefully in January we can get a better pattern to try and setup for a week or two.

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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted

The worst news is that models are steadily trending drier. We are going to get another multi week rainless period sometime over the next month I'd bet. Many places outside of the mountains in the southeast will be hard pressed to get winter precip this winter and the drought will only get worse. The LaNina pattern will be very hard to break.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2016 at 11:27 PM, jshetley said:

The worst news is that models are steadily trending drier. We are going to get another multi week rainless period sometime over the next month I'd bet. Many places outside of the mountains in the southeast will be hard pressed to get winter precip this winter and the drought will only get worse. The LaNina pattern will be very hard to break.

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IMG_1232.JPG

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2016 at 11:27 PM, jshetley said:

The worst news is that models are steadily trending drier. We are going to get another multi week rainless period sometime over the next month I'd bet. Many places outside of the mountains in the southeast will be hard pressed to get winter precip this winter and the drought will only get worse. The LaNina pattern will be very hard to break.

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We're not even in a Nina

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
  On 12/6/2016 at 12:36 AM, Jonathan said:

LOL the SAI has been correct exactly 0 times since the "theory" emerged. I'm not sure why people get sucked into that every year.

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Yeah, he just needs to come clean and write a final blog post saying that while it was a good thought, it just didn't work out this time.

This cryptic "it could/might/maybe/possibly/should do this or that, depending on several dynamic factors that may or may not evolve in one direction or another" business is no better than poring over 384hr GFS charts and trying to understand what the weather is going to be 16 days from now.

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JoMo

JoMo

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2016 at 11:59 PM, packbacker said:

Cohen's just relased blog couldn't be more cryptic.  That whole theory needs to be tossed, gets taken way to seriuosly.   

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His current theory does need flushed and he should probably look at other influences outside of the snow cover or snow advance to explain why his theory is not doing well.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted
  On 12/6/2016 at 12:45 AM, JoMo said:

His current theory does need flushed and he should probably look at other influences outside of the snow cover or snow advance to explain why his theory is not doing well.

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Agree.  I am sure it plays a part but it's not the driving factor.  It's sour grapes for us as we want a stout -AO winter and he gets blamed.    -AO doesn't look likely in the near/mid term, at the very least.  

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted

Bastardi just tweeted this (an hour ago):

Euro weeklies are out Entire nation below normal on average with plenty of snow next 46 days. Coldest run I have seen for similar period

Obviously pay per view and proprietary but if anyone has this - any better description someone might provide?

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
  On 12/6/2016 at 1:38 AM, pcbjr said:

Bastardi just tweeted this (an hour ago):

Euro weeklies are out Entire nation below normal on average with plenty of snow next 46 days. Coldest run I have seen for similar period

Obviously pay per view and proprietary but if anyone has this - any better description someone might provide?

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That sounds right! Whatever models shows the coldest, gets the most subscriptions! 

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted
  On 12/6/2016 at 1:38 AM, pcbjr said:

Bastardi just tweeted this (an hour ago):

Euro weeklies are out Entire nation below normal on average with plenty of snow next 46 days. Coldest run I have seen for similar period

Obviously pay per view and proprietary but if anyone has this - any better description someone might provide?

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When you click on the 32 and 46 day mean 2m temp it's BN for bulk of conus except southwest.  It keeps ridge up in AK for bulk of run (-epo'ish) and thus the BN.  

The SE is well AN for precip too.  

They look fine for what there use is.  

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
  On 12/6/2016 at 2:30 AM, packbacker said:

When you click on the 32 and 46 day mean 2m temp it's BN for bulk of conus except southwest.  It keeps ridge up in AK for bulk of run (-epo'ish) and thus the BN.  

The SE is well AN for precip too.  

They look fine for what there use is.  

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Thanks Pack. I think we really need the EPO to kind of work with us. It's also telling that these models keep really wobbling from day to day to week to week. So much is going on its going to be hard to nail down a pattern post five days. I think we will be pulling our hair out a lot this winter. It may not even be that bad bUT because we cannot nail down a certain pattern for the mid range.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted
  On 12/6/2016 at 1:19 AM, packbacker said:
Still think, at least for central NC, our best chance of snows will be in Jan with weak Nina/+qbo.  Even with the models SER happy in the near/mid range.  


I agree, that's always our best chance. No one should expect a snowy pattern to emerge in December. I know you probably don't, but it seems this forum gets active with fantasy day 15 snowstorms on the GFS. The best we can hope for this month in the SE is cold and if we can build towards a better global pattern by the new year. If Dec as a whole ends up BN that's a win and if the GFS has its way, it will be. Of course we have a long way to go, still.
b9983f0b537343c2655ab99db4c35bce.png
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Weatherfan2

Weatherfan2

Posted
Posted
  On 12/6/2016 at 12:56 PM, FallsLake said:

JB is still talking about the slosh theory, where the models will not be able to handle the cold air to the NW and it will eventually push to the SE (..not what the operational models currently show). He's also talking about La Nina being gone and we're now looking at a neutral winter.  

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Yeah the models always underestimate those cold blasts.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted
  On 12/6/2016 at 12:14 PM, Jon said:


I agree, that's always our best chance. No one should expect a snowy pattern to emerge in December. I know you probably don't, but it seems this forum gets active with fantasy day 15 snowstorms on the GFS. The best we can hope for this month in the SE is cold and if we can build towards a better global pattern by the new year. If Dec as a whole ends up BN that's a win and if the GFS has its way, it will be. Of course we have a long way to go, still.
b9983f0b537343c2655ab99db4c35bce.png

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Yep...the Dec's of our cold/snowy nina winters all look like above.  Though I would want a little less SER as we get closer to Jan.  I thought the day 8+ on the EPS looked pretty good, highest snowfall output on the mean yet.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted
  On 12/6/2016 at 1:19 AM, packbacker said:

Still think, at least for central NC, our best chance of snows will be in Jan with weak Nina/+qbo.  Even with the models SER happy in the near/mid range.  

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For Triad which I guess qualifies as central NC I'm going before Christmas, precisely Mid Month for 1st event. The "Event" qualifies as frozen precip of any variety so take with a grain of salt. Chance for pure snows are going to be tricky as always. Gonna be hard pressed to avoid mixing issues in storms because I beleive we'll see more miller B's as oppossed to A's. Of course I could be wrong and blocking show s up enough to slow the flow down so we can get few phasers.

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