Wow Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 1:21 PM, Cold Rain said: Yup, that is true about the mountains. I'm not sold on much of an overrunning event if the flow turns out like the one shown above. But we have plenty of time to watch it, and lots of options are on the table. Hopefully, we actually do get the cold in here. That's always the first step, IMO. Expand Clippers if the N jet dominates. If more of a split flow develops, watch for an overrunning system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 2:15 PM, Wow said: Clippers if the N jet dominates. If more of a split flow develops, watch for an overrunning system. Expand Could easily see something sneak out of the SW, with that look and develop something around Texas! Maybe another white Christmas for Houston!!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 2:28 PM, mackerel_sky said: Could easily see something sneak out of the SW, with that look and develop something around Texas! Maybe another white Christmas for Houston!!??problem is most everything is gonna run west if it has a chance to organize. The pattern shown isn't really a good storm pattern. Sure we could get an overrunning event like Wow mentioned . But with that look , we for sure don't want an organized system cause it will no doubt cut Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Big cold push still showing up around day 10 on GFS.. probably colder than the one coming up this weekend if correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 4:44 PM, wncsnow said: Big cold push still showing up around day 10 on GFS.. probably colder than the one coming up this weekend if correct Expand I would say after this initial blast we see the cold hang on more because the snowpack should start to really get going North of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Actually turns into a glancing blow and the rest of the run is a dumpster fire with a strong SE ridge and cold in the NW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 4:44 PM, wncsnow said: Big cold push still showing up around day 10 on GFS.. probably colder than the one coming up this weekend if correct Expand Nice seeing the GFS drop that big 1050mb high east of the Rockies...it's a good look up until truncation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherfan2 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Isn't December the transition month from fall to winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 at least the colds on our side of the world Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 4:56 PM, wncsnow said: Actually turns into a glancing blow and the rest of the run is a dumpster fire with a strong SE ridge and cold in the NW... Expand I'm with you. It turns into a great pattern north of Chicago. But it's not a pattern that says December to remember in the east as depicted. We shall see of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 DT does a great job discussing the current pattern and how it evolves over the next two weeks. Really good graphics that explains all of the players. DT - This Week in Weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 4:59 PM, Weatherfan2 said: Isn't December the transition month from fall to winter? Expand December is not a transition month, but November is. December is a hardcore winter month and usually the 2nd and sometimes the coldest winter month. People tend to think Feb is colder, but in most places that is not true on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 2:28 PM, mackerel_sky said: Could easily see something sneak out of the SW, with that look and develop something around Texas! Maybe another white Christmas for Houston!!?? Expand Wrong regional forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 12z gefs looked terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 5:57 PM, franklin NCwx said: 12z gefs looked terrible better than the 12z Op . Keeps below normal temps in the east from day 9 -15 and higher heights over Alaska Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 6:01 PM, Stormcatt said: better than the 12z Op . Keeps below normal temps in the east from day 9 -15 Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Expand Unless you're in FL or South GA. Don't tell me that stubborn SE ridge is to blame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 6:07 PM, Snowless in Carrollton said: Unless you're in FL or South GA. Don't tell me that stubborn SE ridge is to blame.who cares about Florida weather during the winter ?Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 5:57 PM, franklin NCwx said: 12z gefs looked terrible Expand LOL...well a few good changes. Gone is the low over the AK, the PV drops fairly far south, weak ridging in the west but that pink atrocity over the Bahama's has got to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 6:26 PM, packbacker said: LOL...well a few good changes. Gone is the low over the AK, the PV drops fairly far south, weak ridging in the west but that pink atrocity over the Bahama's has got to go. Expand Yeah I mean we are going to see these changes this far out in the model land. we will see how it pans out. I do like the look of the indices today . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 6:34 PM, Met1985 said: Yeah I mean we are going to see these changes this far out in the model land. we will see how it pans out. I do like the look of the indices today . Expand Where's CR with our daily indices??? DT keeps mentioning the +EPO as a fly in the ointment in getting an even better pattern. Won't the +EPO generate a good split-flow eventually in the right conditions. That can be dynamite for the SE if it can stay cold and systems crashing into southern CA and trekking across the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 6:17 PM, Stormcatt said: who cares about Florida weather during the winter ? Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Expand Now, now ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 6:51 PM, pcbjr said: Now, now ...Haha I'm not a regular on here. I forgot there we a few lol Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 6:54 PM, Stormcatt said: Haha I'm not a regular on here. I forgot there we a few lol Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Expand SuperJames is in Florida now also I believe. Funny that he doesn't post as much now that he's in Florida. I guess the weather in FL really is that boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 6:26 PM, packbacker said: LOL...well a few good changes. Gone is the low over the AK, the PV drops fairly far south, weak ridging in the west but that pink atrocity over the Bahama's has got to go. Expand Don't you need some se ridge (albeit not the 588dm monster shown here) to keep the dreaded nw flow at bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 7:00 PM, Bhs1975 said: Don't you need some se ridge (albeit not the 588dm monster shown here) to keep the dreaded nw flow at bay? Expand Yes, what's bad for Florida and south Ga can be good for areas just to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Watched this over on the other board: DT, good info: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 6:37 PM, packfan98 said: Where's CR with our daily indices??? DT keeps mentioning the +EPO as a fly in the ointment in getting an even better pattern. Won't the +EPO generate a good split-flow eventually in the right conditions. That can be dynamite for the SE if it can stay cold and systems crashing into southern CA and trekking across the country. Expand EPO is neg on GEFS after day 7 or so...why its so cold in MW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Euro must have been no Bueno!? No talk about it? I guess it does only go out to 10 days, so the cold blast is 12+ days away?? The -60 degree departure from normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 8:29 PM, mackerel_sky said: Euro must have been no Bueno!? No talk about it? I guess it does only go out to 10 days, so the cold blast is 12+ days away?? The -60 degree departure from normal? Expand Day 10 looked good to me. Polar Vortex south of Hudson Bay, northern stream vort coming into the northwest and a southern vort coming ashore in central California. Would probably be a close call and a messy system dependent upon location, but it would likely be "trackable" for some. All that said, it's day 10.....................so.............meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 6:58 PM, Snowless in Carrollton said: SuperJames is in Florida now also I believe. Funny that he doesn't post as much now that he's in Florida. I guess the weather in FL really is that boring. Expand Unless you like severe weather because right now the panhandle of Florida is under a tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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