No snow for you Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 On 12/4/2016 at 11:33 PM, Snowless in Carrollton said: Why oh why are we even looking at something 15 or 16 days away ? Come on people. Have we gotten that desperate ? Expand Yes after last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 On 12/4/2016 at 11:37 PM, pcbjr said: on an 18z run, no less Expand All runs are equal, as long as they show what we want! On 12/4/2016 at 11:37 PM, pcbjr said: on an 18z run, no less Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 On 12/4/2016 at 11:04 PM, cg2916 said: Is that 2 degrees in southeast NC? Expand Yeah , the 3rd coldest temp in the USA!! Only colder at northern tip of ME, and ND at the Canadian border! Why not? Totally plausible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 On 12/4/2016 at 11:54 PM, mackerel_sky said: Yeah , the 3rd coldest temp in the USA!! Only colder at northern tip of ME, and ND at the Canadian border! Why not? Totally plausible Expand I'm sure the fresh snowpack has something to do with it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/4/2016 at 11:54 PM, mackerel_sky said: Yeah , the 3rd coldest temp in the USA!! Only colder at northern tip of ME, and ND at the Canadian border! Why not? Totally plausible Expand Around that same time it's showing negative temps along the coast with the midland Carolinas showing 20's. I'm no meteorologist but I can't fathom how that's even possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/4/2016 at 11:57 PM, Snowless in Carrollton said: I'm sure the fresh snowpack has something to do with it.... Expand That may be the best post you have ever made! Well done! This may end up being a December to remember!! It's not like it's 384 hours away either, it's only 312!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 12:00 AM, cg2916 said: Around that same time it's showing negative temps along the coast with the midland Carolinas showing 20's. I'm no meteorologist but I can't fathom how that's even possible. Expand There was a storm and cold outbreak I read about fairly recently, that hit the coastal areas of NC very hard with snow and the sounds even froze! I think it was in December!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Anything cold and snowy is always good to see. However we should be paying more attention to the ensembles and pattern setup at this point. Has anyone looked at any ensembles for support? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 12:03 AM, mackerel_sky said: There was a storm and cold outbreak I read about fairly recently, that hit the coastal areas of NC very hard with snow and the sounds even froze! I think it was in December!? Expand December 1989. I remember that very well. 1-2 feet of snow I-95 and east, with nothing over the western halves of SC and NC. Wilmington got down to 0 one morning due to snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 12:10 AM, jshetley said: December 1989. I remember that very well. 1-2 feet of snow I-95 and east, with nothing over the western halves of SC and NC. Wilmington got down to 0 one morning due to snowcover. Expand Yep, if anyone wants to read about, ILM did a pretty good writeup about it. http://www.weather.gov/ilm/ChristmasSnow1989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Anyone look at what happened after 12/89 - want winter over by 1/5 +/- ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 18z ensembles in full suport of 18z gfs. sexy looking to say the least imo, plenty of cold and precip. Opportunities to be had, no doubt. Stay tuned 12z up next, interested to see euro ens in a.m., won't be staying up that late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 12:45 AM, NCSNOW said: 18z ensembles in full suport of 18z gfs. sexy looking to say the least imo, plenty of cold and precip. Opportunities to be had, no doubt. Stay tuned 12z up next, interested to see euro ens in a.m., won't be staying up that late. Expand Game on! Don't let Brick see this! Glad to see it has ensemble support! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 12:38 AM, pcbjr said: Anyone look at what happened after 12/89 - want winter over by 1/5 +/- ? Expand Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 12:45 AM, NCSNOW said: 18z ensembles in full suport of 18z gfs. sexy looking to say the least imo, plenty of cold and precip. Opportunities to be had, no doubt. Stay tuned 12z up next, interested to see euro ens in a.m., won't be staying up that late. Expand The hyperpole in here from run to run is crazy. It's like yes! Then oh well we are screwed then oh we will be ok. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 12:00 AM, cg2916 said: Around that same time it's showing negative temps along the coast with the midland Carolinas showing 20's. I'm no meteorologist but I can't fathom how that's even possible.Snowpack would cool the surface, especially a 12"-20" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 12:57 AM, Met1985 said: The hyperpole in here from run to run is crazy. It's like yes! Then oh well we are screwed then oh we will be ok. lol Expand LOL...yeah, with the models so consistent from run to run. Just cycled through the previous 4 runs of the GEFS and all were different in the PAC in the day 10+. Although, glass half full post might be that they all have slowly ticked away from the AK low. 18z GEFS is nice though...full ridge to Russia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 12:38 AM, pcbjr said: Anyone look at what happened after 12/89 - want winter over by 1/5 +/- ? Expand I'm hoping we do that again. Had springtime in Jan of 1990, complete with severe storms and tornados in Feb and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 1:06 AM, Jon said: Snowpack would cool the surface, especially a 12"-20" snow. Expand Yep, exactly why Wilmington NC hit 0 in 1989, while we had upper teens back here in upstate SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 1:26 AM, jshetley said: I'm hoping we do that again. Had springtime in Jan of 1990, complete with severe storms and tornados in Feb and March. Expand I'm good with tornados , forever! Bring on the snow! Or sleet in my case, always sleet for me! I love warm noses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 1:26 AM, jshetley said: I'm hoping we do that again. Had springtime in Jan of 1990, complete with severe storms and tornados in Feb and March. Expand ok - if that suits your fancy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 1:25 AM, packbacker said: LOL...yeah, with the models so consistent from run to run. Just cycled through the previous 4 runs of the GEFS and all were different in the PAC in the day 10+. Although, glass half full post might be that they all have slowly ticked away from the AK low. 18z GEFS is nice though...full ridge to Russia. Expand Lol I agree. The models being as temperamental as ever with runs changing basically every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 The ridge to Russia on the GEFS runs today reminded me of 14/15 winter. Similar SST's....warm neutral vs cool neutral though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 0z GFS still on board with a serious winter pattern starting off with a big arctic high moving in by mid month. -30C 850mb temps over the plains. Split flow showing up so be on the lookout once the high spreads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Day 12 the EPS drops a piece of the PV as far south as I have seen it on any model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 ^ That will feel like winter, at least. Hard to get any storms in that fast flow, but it'll be nice to see the cold come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 1:18 PM, SimeonNC said: The mountains will probably get some good NW flow, and there is always a possibility of an overrunning event in the mid-month. Expand Yup, that is true about the mountains. I'm not sold on much of an overrunning event if the flow turns out like the one shown above. But we have plenty of time to watch it, and lots of options are on the table. Hopefully, we actually do get the cold in here. That's always the first step, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 1:21 PM, Cold Rain said: Yup, that is true about the mountains. I'm not sold on much of an overrunning event if the flow turns out like the one shown above. But we have plenty of time to watch it, and lots of options are on the table. Hopefully, we actually do get the cold in here. That's always the first step, IMO. Expand If the cold push is overdone, we might be looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 1:21 PM, Cold Rain said: Yup, that is true about the mountains. I'm not sold on much of an overrunning event if the flow turns out like the one shown above. But we have plenty of time to watch it, and lots of options are on the table. Hopefully, we actually do get the cold in here. That's always the first step, IMO. Expand That would be a pattern that could provide a clipper type system. Models would not see these fast moving lows until within 5 days. So yes, lets get the cold air in here and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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