jburns Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 4 hours ago, lookingnorth said: It kills bugs and overly sensitive vegetation. http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~jsmerdon/papers/2011_grl_darrigoetal.pdf Really? Nah. They'll be back in the spring just like every other year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 5 hours ago, yotaman said: I would prefer the Dec-Jan 2017-2018. https://www.ourstate.com/big-freeze/ Yep, that's the one I would vote for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 2 hours ago, jburns said: Really? Nah. They'll be back in the spring just like every other year. Aren't we sort of near the northern extent of the fire ant range? Obviously most bug populations won't be wiped out, but some will. However I'll really root for extreme cold if it kills the palm trees people try to grow. That's not a problem in Norman (where it went below 0 in 2011), but I've seen a few in Durham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 Looking pretty seasonable by next weekend on.....hopefully setting up for a cold Dec..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Another frost potential coming up; but that elusive hard freeze is still a ways out: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday... Thursday will be the warmest day. Increasing SW-W flow will bring highs well above early November normals by 15+ degrees. Highs of 80- 85 are expected. The timing of the next cold front appears to be narrowing within the model suite to late Thursday into Thursday night. Models are also showing a good chance of showers, mainly along or just behind thefront for a narrow window of time (mainly in the evening hours). However, significant rain is not expected as amounts are forecast to be less than 0.25 of an inch, with the possibility of less than 0.10 of an inch. Drier and cooler air will follow for Friday as a large sprawling surface high pressure (1035+ mb) is forecast to build from southern Canada into the Midwest late week, then across the Appalachians by the weekend into early next week with an extended dry period again.Some scattered frost is likely again across the Piedmont this weekend and early next week with lows in the mid 30s. Highs should hold in the 60s Friday through early next week in most if not all but the southern tier, which may reach 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 4 hours ago, FallsLake said: Another frost potential coming up; but that elusive hard freeze is still a ways out: 2 The 14th. Sssh. Don't tell anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 24 minutes ago, jburns said: The 14th. Sssh. Don't tell anyone. Well it's still out in la la land but the 14th is as good a guess as any. 12z GFS for the 14th: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 It's long range, but the GFS takes me to around 29-30 degrees for the first time this fall. Also long range, but it's getting wetter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 36 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Well it's still out in la la land but the 14th is as good a guess as any. 12z GFS for the 14th: Come on man! I'm a moderator. I NEVER guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 1, 2016 Author Share Posted November 1, 2016 surprised not much talk about the 12z gfs 2" of water for my backyard next week, possibly severe, and backside snow potential 1-2" Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: surprised not much talk about the 12z gfs 2" of water for my backyard next week, possibly severe, and backside snow potential 1-2" Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi Yeah thats not gonna happen. That would be like a once in a lifetime event for early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 1, 2016 Author Share Posted November 1, 2016 7 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Yeah thats not gonna happen. That would be like a once in a lifetime event for early November. Not really just looking at Little Rock recent history...and I'm sure there are more favored elevations away from the city that see a little more. November 12 2014 - Trace November 11 1976 - Trace November 7 1991 - 1.3 inches November 5 1995 - Trace November 4 1992 - Trace November 1 1991 - Trace October 30 1993 - Trace October 29 1993 - 0.2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 1 hour ago, NWNC2015 said: surprised not much talk about the 12z gfs 2" of water for my backyard next week, possibly severe, and backside snow potential 1-2" Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi The 18z is totally different and is probably right with it's MUCH drier look. Any rain on it is at day 15-16 and is under 1 inch and over a small area. I don't expect much rain until after Thanksgiving anywhere in the southeast. Not as cold as 12z either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 18z GEFS gets downright wintry (pattern-wise) after D10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 2, 2016 Author Share Posted November 2, 2016 0z GFS is coming in more snowy. Flakes are flying in the NC mountains by 192, and a fresh snow-pack of a few inches in building to our north in West Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 2, 2016 Author Share Posted November 2, 2016 0z GFS is rocky...cold shots and hot shots. No sustained warmth but storm track can bring +20 degree anomalies at times. Periods of MTN snow when the East is cool and the West is baking. No sustained snow depth with cold/hot bouncing back and fourth from West Coast and East Coast....limited to the Rocky Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 27 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: 0z GFS is rocky...cold shots and hot shots. No sustained warmth but storm track can bring +20 degree anomalies at times. Periods of MTN snow when the East is cool and the West is baking. No sustained snow depth with cold/hot bouncing back and fourth from West Coast and East Coast....limited to the Rocky Mountains. I'm sure as usual there will be +20 anomalies but -20 anomalies will be hard to come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 16 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I'm sure as usual there will be +20 anomalies but -20 anomalies will be hard to come by. didn't see anything close to +20 anomalies on the 0z GFS I just looked at.. more BN than above as time goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 The 6z GFS says we stay basically dry right through day 16. Any talk of a change to a wetter pattern anytime soon is total BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 39 minutes ago, jshetley said: The 6z GFS says we stay basically dry right through day 16. Any talk of a change to a wetter pattern anytime soon is total BS. LOL its one out of like the last 6-7 runs or so that doesn't give your back yard a few inches of rain over the next 16 days and of course this is the one you latch on to...the pattern is certainly going to change and its gonna be wetter....it might not be till later in the period but its coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 Impressive 4 month stretch of AN temps. Would be nice to see that reverse when we look at it come March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 I wonder if we'll get a severe threat in late November around here like we sometimes do. Not sure if we can tell with the pattern we have been having if that is more or less likely to happen. I guess if we continue the roller coaster ride with the temps it is more likely to happen as we get closer to the end of the month and the switch over to winter begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 4 hours ago, jshetley said: The 6z GFS says we stay basically dry right through day 16. Any talk of a change to a wetter pattern anytime soon is total BS. The pattern has to Chang with the indices going the way they are. negative AO, negative NAO and a positive PNA. Something has to give. The models are all over the place after day 5 so I wouldn't worry about day 16 for that matter. I think November could be a whole month of change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 25 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The pattern has to Chang with the indices going the way they are. negative AO, negative NAO and a positive PNA. Something has to give. The models are all over the place after day 5 so I wouldn't worry about day 16 for that matter. I think November could be a whole month of change. It'll be colder than October, with 2 or 3 decent cold frontal passages, but precip will be very hard to come by. The upper 70's into the 80's should be gone after tomorrow for quite some time. It's likely one of those fronts is strong enough for at least a small NW upslope snow event too, especially after Nov 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 2, 2016 Author Share Posted November 2, 2016 6z GFS wasn't far off for a winter storm in NC and VA at the end of the run. Rain/Snow breaking out in South-Western NC and widespread 20s in Virginia...low 20s and teens in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 There's no cold air in the source region(s) up north. We're torching, Canada is torching. Where is any cold air coming from? There's no transport imminent from Siberia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 3, 2016 Author Share Posted November 3, 2016 12z GFS was interesting through hour 240...some half a foot totals along the NC/TN line. Under 2" for most of the mountains including Georgia. Decent shot of rain/snow mix or sleet shower in my backyard was shown but unlikely and no accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 4, 2016 Share Posted November 4, 2016 Ensembles are weakening the North Pac low beginning around Nov 15th. That date has been getting pushed out on the model runs, but in the past few days, the runs are holding a bit more and not pushing the date out. We'll see, it could just be a temporary thing where the models resume with the delay. Anyway, as the N Pac low weakens, some western ridging goes up, and we start to see some below normal temps show up (850mb) via central to eastern U.S. troughing. GFS Ensemble doesn't really build the W Coast ridging and is the warmest of the 3 (Canadian / Euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 4, 2016 Share Posted November 4, 2016 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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