Met1985 Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 On 10/25/2016 at 5:36 PM, packbacker said: Well if Nov is going to finish BN it's going to have to be frigid the last half. First 7-10 days looks solidly AN. When will this end.... Expand Yeah absolutely no cold air in sight. The only thing I can think of is I'm hoping the indices are correct for the second half of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 I personally would rather see a warm first half, cold second half for November. Goes along with my belief that a cold start for December leads to a good winter (..many times). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 On 10/25/2016 at 8:29 PM, FallsLake said: I personally would rather see a warm first half, cold second half for November. Goes along with my belief that a cold start for December leads to a good winter (..many times). Expand Yeah I like this idea also. Iv seen very warm first half Novembers turn into great patterns for December on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 On 10/25/2016 at 8:29 PM, FallsLake said: I personally would rather see a warm first half, cold second half for November. Goes along with my belief that a cold start for December leads to a good winter (..many times). Expand On 10/25/2016 at 8:57 PM, Met1985 said: Yeah I like this idea also. Iv seen very warm first half Novembers turn into great patterns for December on. Expand Yeah same here, its no guarantee but lots of times warm through Thanksgiving equals good Dec/Jan which climo wise is the best for us to get the big snows.....2010 was like that....warm all the way through Thanksgiving and then it flipped and Dec/Jan where pretty epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 On 10/25/2016 at 9:54 PM, downeastnc said: Yeah same here, its no guarantee but lots of times warm through Thanksgiving equals good Dec/Jan which climo wise is the best for us to get the big snows.....2010 was like that....warm all the way through Thanksgiving and then it flipped and Dec/Jan where pretty epic. Expand Yeah we had a cold very cold December with a huge snow on Christmas. Then another huge snow like a week later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 29, 2016 Author Share Posted October 29, 2016 Maybe a change to cold (10 degrees BN) and some mountains flurries the third week of November for the S/E. Sure to be delayed, never happen, be limited in duration (2-3 days), et cetera. Something to watch at least. I'm overdue for a light to moderate snowfall event in November outside of the MTNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 I'm not sure I can make it through a winter full of 384 hour GFS maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 The GFS had some decent rain for us in the long range for a day or 2, but that's gone now. Thinking again that we will not see much rain until after Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 29, 2016 Author Share Posted October 29, 2016 I'm going all in, pattern change or relief coming third week of November. Snow showery weather for the MTNS for a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 On 10/29/2016 at 3:28 PM, jburns said: I'm not sure I can make it through a winter full of 384 hour GFS maps. Expand Its getting closer, instead is now 372 hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 On 10/30/2016 at 3:00 AM, Avdave said: Its getting closer, instead is now 372 hour Expand No the cold air advance got delayed on the 0z. We now need an hour 408 map.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 On 10/30/2016 at 10:21 AM, FallsLake said: No the cold air advance got delayed on the 0z. We now need an hour 408 map.... Expand Too funny....Good ole GFS is at it again. Don't worry, winter will come guys. Hey, look at it on the bright side. At least e didn't have that late October snowstorm curse this year. It promises to be a good winter. Mid to late November is my target for seeing how the winter pattern will unfold. We shall see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 On 10/30/2016 at 12:08 PM, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Too funny....Good ole GFS is at it again. Don't worry, winter will come guys. Hey, look at it on the bright side. At least e didn't have that late October snowstorm curse this year. It promises to be a good winter. Mid to late November is my target for seeing how the winter pattern will unfold. We shall see.... Expand I agree. There's two sets of thoughts for cold weather (which most on here are a fan of); 1) Get it cold now, I don't care what time of year it is. 2) Weather patterns lengthen in the winter so wait for the optimal time for the cold to take hold. I'm the #2 guy. Over the years I've noticed that a late November/early December cold pattern tends to lead to a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 On 10/30/2016 at 12:50 PM, FallsLake said: I agree. There's two sets of thoughts for cold weather (which most on here are a fan of); 1) Get it cold now, I don't care what time of year it is. 2) Weather patterns lengthen in the winter so wait for the optimal time for the cold to take hold. I'm the #2 guy. Over the years I've noticed that a late November/early December cold pattern tends to lead to a good winter. Expand Actually it seems that there is a fair number of people on this board who are of the opinion that if it isn't snowing they would rather it be 65 F all winter. To those people I have this to say: poo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 By the way, i was over at Wunderground reading Jeff Master's article on the current warm spell (is it just me or does he really gloat during warm spells?) and I did see a mention of hints of possible breakdown in the polar vortex, which could give us some hope at least. https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/scary-warm-welcome-to-the-halloween-heat-wave-of-2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 On 10/30/2016 at 2:26 PM, cbmclean said: By the way, i was over at Wunderground reading Jeff Master's article on the current warm spell (is it just me or does he really gloat during warm spells?) and I did see a mention of hints of possible breakdown in the polar vortex, which could give us some hope at least. https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/scary-warm-welcome-to-the-halloween-heat-wave-of-2016 Expand If I'm not mistaken the polar vortex is very weak and I think trying to split. I also saw an article that says the polar vortex is going to be weaker than normal so that may lead to more cold outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 On 10/30/2016 at 10:21 AM, FallsLake said: No the cold air advance got delayed on the 0z. We now need an hour 408 map.... Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 On 10/30/2016 at 2:18 PM, cbmclean said: Actually it seems that there is a fair number of people on this board who are of the opinion that if it isn't snowing they would rather it be 65 F all winter. To those people I have this to say: poo. Expand Winter should be cold. If we get snow, then that's even better. If you want 65 or greater, then there's a state called Florida that can oblige. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 On 10/30/2016 at 6:37 PM, calculus1 said: Winter should be cold. If we get snow, then that's even better. If you want 65 or greater, then there's a state called Florida that can oblige. Expand Sometimes, and it depends where you are in Florida! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 What good is getting down into the single digits and teens if you can't get precip with it. I'd take a winter like December of last year anytime over a boring cold and dry one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 There is no debate to get into here. You warmies are just wrong. End of story.Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 On 10/30/2016 at 7:20 PM, calculus1 said: There is no debate to get into here. You warmies are just wrong. End of story. Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk Expand I fully agree . I'm akin for a debate. I like the cold in winter. I hate being in short sleeves at Christmas . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 Amen on the cold. The colder the better and if it snows that is just a bonus. Done the Florida thing for 38 years and it's weather is just plain miserable and boring. Rooting for another 1985 Siberian Express to plow thru the Southeast. Rant over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 On 10/30/2016 at 8:25 PM, PisgahNCWeather said: Amen on the cold. The colder the better and if it snows that is just a bonus. Done the Florida thing for 38 years and it's weather is just plain miserable and boring. Rooting for another 1985 Siberian Express to plow thru the Southeast. Rant over Expand '83, '85, '89 or anything close would be nice here in the north FL area !!!! But I keep rootin' for 1899 'though not likely (I'm a realist but an eternal hoper) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 Agreed as I was in Orlando. Would love to see the 1899 outbreak also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 On 10/30/2016 at 8:25 PM, PisgahNCWeather said: Amen on the cold. The colder the better and if it snows that is just a bonus. Done the Florida thing for 38 years and it's weather is just plain miserable and boring. Rooting for another 1985 Siberian Express to plow thru the Southeast. Rant over Expand This years predominate pattern with la nina may allow more brutal cold air intrusions deep into the US (cross-polar flow -->Siberian Express). But as we all know cold air is no guarantee of a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 if we're begging for past winters to repeat, I'll take one Jan 1940 again please. Just once in my lifetime. (interestingly also featured a really warm preceding OCT... no idea about any other comparisons though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 On 10/30/2016 at 7:06 PM, jshetley said: What good is getting down into the single digits and teens if you can't get precip with it. I'd take a winter like December of last year anytime over a boring cold and dry one. Expand It kills bugs and overly sensitive vegetation. Plus it can cause ice to form on ponds. Another 1783-84-style cold snap and we can all go ice skating from Charelston, SC north. I only see your point when it comes to extreme cold. For example, Oklahoma City had a mean temp of 27.4 F in February 1899 and onlyi 1.6" of snow. It would have been much better if 18" of snow had fallen on the first of 11 consecutive days without a high above 32. http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~jsmerdon/papers/2011_grl_darrigoetal.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 On 10/30/2016 at 8:52 PM, whamby said: if we're begging for past winters to repeat, I'll take one Jan 1940 again please. Just once in my lifetime. (interestingly also featured a really warm preceding OCT... no idea about any other comparisons though). Expand I would prefer the Dec-Jan 2017-2018. https://www.ourstate.com/big-freeze/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 On 10/30/2016 at 10:11 PM, yotaman said: I would prefer the Dec-Jan 2017-2018. https://www.ourstate.com/big-freeze/ Expand Was it that good, Marty McFly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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