NWNC2015 Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 Pump the ridge. Say it together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 Very warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 1, 2016 Share Posted August 1, 2016 I love to see the end of summer coming. Need a telescope right now, but at least it's visible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 1, 2016 Author Share Posted August 1, 2016 13 hours ago, Cold Rain said: I love to see the end of summer coming. Need a telescope right now, but at least it's visible. 55 and below in the higher elevations that would feel down right cold after our humid lows in the 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 1, 2016 Author Share Posted August 1, 2016 Hot off the press valid for August. Long range experts think drought removal is likely for the Carolina's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 We'll take cool weather anyway we can get it..... From RAH: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH Thursday/... As of 325 PM Thursday... ...A stalled frontal zone invof the Carolinas will bring wet and cool conditions for the start of next week... A northern stream cold front attendant to the upper level low swinging east through southeast Canada and New England will move through the area late Saturday night and into Sunday. After isolated to widely scattered convection on Saturday, mainly in the east in association with seabreeze, weak and disorganized convection accompanying the front Saturday night/Sunday morning is expected to increase in intensity and coverage Sunday afternoon along and south of Highway 64 where favorable diurnal timing will lead to moderate destabilization. Deep layer shear of 15kts or less should preclude a widespread severe threat, however with the cold front forecast to slow down and then stall across the area, the threat for locally heavy rain and flooding will need to be monitored. The stalled front invof the Carolinas will continue to serve as a focus for scattered numerous showers and storms Monday and into Tuesday before retreating northward as a warm front late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Interaction of the stalled front with a compact upper low/upper trough over the Deep South by means of enhanced gulf moisture transport northward into the Carolinas could lead to multiple rounds of heavy rainfall and quite possibly flooding. Additionally, depending on where the front sets up, a warm season damming event is in the making, especially across the NC Piedmont, where daytime temperatures could struggle to climb out of the mid/upper 70s. By Wednesday and Thursday, any lingering damming regime should succumb to diabatic heating and increasing southerly flow as the Bermuda high pressure over the Western Atlantic builds westward towards the Southeast coast. This should allow a gradual return to near temperatures with near climatological/scattered rain chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 4, 2016 Author Share Posted August 4, 2016 We are about the wettest part of the country. It's been months of good rains for WV, MD, VA, NC, and all four of these states keep seeing disasters from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 5, 2016 Author Share Posted August 5, 2016 Another thing to watch on the EURO next week....major hurricane headed toward the four corners region...with help from what was Hurricane Earl to enhance development....may eventually enhance the rain and isolated tornadoes down stream in a embedded front. Plenty of time to watch this far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 Wet Late Summer: Above normal rainfall is expected during the next 7 days with an average of 1-3 inches of rain expected. #ncwx http://twitter.com/NWSRaleigh/status/761876850096345089/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 It looks like a return to hot and dry weather is in store in the southeast. Some places in GA and SC are going to get less than .50 of rain over the next 2 weeks according to the 12z GFS and it also shows very hot weather with 95-105 degree heat returning. Not even a brief cool spell in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 I love the stagnant and humid airmass. <from RAH> .LONG TERM /Friday Through Tuesday/... As of 320 AM Wednesday... Impressive upper ridge will modestly strengthen as it extends into the Atlantic coastal region through the weekend. This will effectively block and divert moisture advection off the northcentral Gulf of Mexico northward into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys west of the mountains, and create a classic convective `ring of fire` around the periphery of the ridge with convection over central NC effectively capped by subsidence aloft. Not anticipating many features strong enough to trigger more organized or widespreadconvection in the strongly capped atmsosphere despite abundant low level instability...primarily modest upslope flow and weakconvergence associated with lee troffing in the west. Convection will be strongly tied to the diurnal cycle, weakening quickly after sunset. Low level thicknesses build gradually into Sunday and Monday, with forecast 1440 meters indicative of highs above guidance - in the mid 90s. As this is consistent from previous runs, will be bumping the maxes up a bit each day - ranging from 90 northwest to 95 in the southeast with associated heat indices reaching 100 to 105 mostly just below advisory criteria. Mins will be unseasonably mild in thestagnant and humid airmass, 72-76 degrees. A cold front will slowly sag southward toward the southern mid-Atlantic Tuesday, providing a focus for more widespread convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 12, 2016 Share Posted August 12, 2016 Hoping the 12Z GFS has the end of the run right, highs in the 70's would be nice...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 23 hours ago, downeastnc said: Hoping the 12Z GFS has the end of the run right, highs in the 70's would be nice...... First shot of fall coming soon!! can't wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 GFS looking good lets hope its legit....run this for the rest of the run and its beautiful......perfect football weather.....and good start to my favorite time of the year.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2016081312&fh=300&xpos=0&ypos=395 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 1 hour ago, downeastnc said: GFS looking good lets hope its legit....run this for the rest of the run and its beautiful......perfect football weather.....and good start to my favorite time of the year.... I'd like more than the .83" it's showing for KJNX over the next 16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 4 hours ago, SN_Lover said: First shot of fall coming soon!! can't wait! I hope this comes true. I cannot remember the last time our dew points were below 70 much less 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 Finally: <From RAH> .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 225 PM Sunday... The persistent mid/upper level ridge will maintain its suppressing influence over central NC through Wednesday with lingering oppressive high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat indices around 100 both Tuesday and Wednesday. The upper ridge will be retreating as a short wave moves into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. The resulting deeper southwest flow will lead to increased moistureadvection off the gulf into western NC and corresponding increasedPoPs, especially in the western piedmont, on Wednesday afternoon.Long awaited pattern change initiates Thursday as the frontal zone which had been hovering ominously west of the Appalachians for the past week is realigned to an east-west orientation, and then nudged south into the area as the aforementioned short wave moves across the mid Atlantic. PoPs will be maximized (at least 50% chance) on Thursday as the frontal zone creeps very slowly south with lower thicknesses and cloud coverage producing highs in the mid and upper 80s, with some lower 90s possible in the southern tier counties. The front will be lingering in the vicinity of the NC/SC border through the weekend with PoPs graduated accordingly on Friday-30% north to 50% south, while shortwave ridging aloft should suppressconvection a bit more on Saturday. Finally, Sunday looks like it could be an active day as a progressive and deeper short wave digging into the Midwest pushes a better-defined front across the area. Highs Friday through Sunday will be mostly in the 85 to 90 range. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: Finally: <From RAH> .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 225 PM Sunday... The persistent mid/upper level ridge will maintain its suppressing influence over central NC through Wednesday with lingering oppressive high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat indices around 100 both Tuesday and Wednesday. The upper ridge will be retreating as a short wave moves into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. The resulting deeper southwest flow will lead to increased moistureadvection off the gulf into western NC and corresponding increasedPoPs, especially in the western piedmont, on Wednesday afternoon.Long awaited pattern change initiates Thursday as the frontal zone which had been hovering ominously west of the Appalachians for the past week is realigned to an east-west orientation, and then nudged south into the area as the aforementioned short wave moves across the mid Atlantic. PoPs will be maximized (at least 50% chance) on Thursday as the frontal zone creeps very slowly south with lower thicknesses and cloud coverage producing highs in the mid and upper 80s, with some lower 90s possible in the southern tier counties. The front will be lingering in the vicinity of the NC/SC border through the weekend with PoPs graduated accordingly on Friday-30% north to 50% south, while shortwave ridging aloft should suppressconvection a bit more on Saturday. Finally, Sunday looks like it could be an active day as a progressive and deeper short wave digging into the Midwest pushes a better-defined front across the area. Highs Friday through Sunday will be mostly in the 85 to 90 range. && I'm looking forward to the NW flow/ continental airmass pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 13 hours ago, Isopycnic said: I'm looking forward to the NW flow/ continental airmass pattern change. I'm right with you.... The 6z GFS still shows the break starting at day 5. After that it doesn't show any 90s for NC (especially N NC) out to day 16. As a bonus it shows a fantasy major hurricane aiming right for the SE coast at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 2 hours ago, FallsLake said: I'm right with you.... The 6z GFS still shows the break starting at day 5. After that it doesn't show any 90s for NC (especially N NC) out to day 16. As a bonus it shows a fantasy major hurricane aiming right for the SE coast at the end of the run. Ugh. Hurricanes bring more humid weather. Give me Alberta air any day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 I don't want no stinking hurricane. We've had enough rain and humidity this summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 The odds of that hurricane showing up on the next run (...in a few minutes) is low; but we are in that time of year where if we're going to get a hurricane it going to be during the next month / six weeks. edit: to be fair "that hurricane" is showing up in the eastern Atlantic in the early days of the model runs. The real question is what it does over the long haul. edit(2): I got tricked. On the 6z GFS the storm in the eastern Atlantic curves away and another storm forms to our SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 3 hours ago, Isopycnic said: Ugh. Hurricanes bring more humid weather. Give me Alberta air any day.... Well, if a weather model is showing a hurricane hitting the SE coast, you don't have anything to worry about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 The temps at the end of the GFS runs are averaging mid 70's for highs and DP's around 60ish for the last 4-5 days of the run.....even Columbia doesn't hit 80 for a high the last 5 days in the run .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 1 hour ago, downeastnc said: The temps at the end of the GFS runs are averaging mid 70's for highs and DP's around 60ish for the last 4-5 days of the run.....even Columbia doesn't hit 80 for a high the last 5 days in the run .... Football season almost!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 2 hours ago, downeastnc said: The temps at the end of the GFS runs are averaging mid 70's for highs and DP's around 60ish for the last 4-5 days of the run.....even Columbia doesn't hit 80 for a high the last 5 days in the run .... It's about time.... This time 3 years ago we were having highs in the 60's and lower 70s. This 90's crap is ridiculous. After enduring this awful summer, we all deserve to be rewarded with a nice cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 I would not count on cooler weather until Mid Sept at the earliest. Already the cooldown we were supposed to be getting in the GSP area is gone, they are forecasting highs right at 90 or better where I am right through day 7 along with lows still above 70. I would say we stay at 90 or above every single day right through mid Sept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 1 hour ago, jshetley said: I would not count on cooler weather until Mid Sept at the earliest. Already the cooldown we were supposed to be getting in the GSP area is gone, they are forecasting highs right at 90 or better where I am right through day 7 along with lows still above 70. I would say we stay at 90 or above every single day right through mid Sept. If weather.com is right, tomorrow is our last 90 day through 8-29. Mostly Mid 80s from Aug 19-29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 7 hours ago, downeastnc said: The temps at the end of the GFS runs are averaging mid 70's for highs and DP's around 60ish for the last 4-5 days of the run.....even Columbia doesn't hit 80 for a high the last 5 days in the run .... I won't hold my breath It is nice to at least see fantasy temps dropping I'm soooo over all of this ******* heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 6 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: If weather.com is right, tomorrow is our last 90 day through 8-29. Mostly Mid 80s from Aug 19-29. Speak for your own area. Perhaps. That will certainly be far from the case in North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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