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August pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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Just now, radarman said:

We've had some pretty sorry looking echoes produce decent rain rates this morning.  High efficiency, dense small droplets... tropical characteristics.

Yea I think thats going to be  common theme in this high PWAT airmass. We picked up a quarter inch very quickly. big drops like you said. Pretty miserable situation setting up for tbeing outside

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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

This summer willl be remembered most of all for he bone dry it is unless things turn rand quickly.

funny you mention... 

i was just peering over Taunton's base reflectivity loop and noticing the behavior change compared to prior attempts to move rain events into this region.  in this case ... there is zippo, zero, nadda attenuation and apparent evaporation taking place.  

the anticedent 'faux drought' was substantial enough [apparently] to negatively effect rain producing scenarios ..be it synoptic or convective, but this puppy today is boldly careening through without that appeal - it's almost as though it heralds in a game-changer ... 

i suggest that would be the case anyway, because you can't really host 75 dew points for three days like what's being proposed on masse/mean by the recent oper. model cycles without that being the case.  any pixel shower is going to rain probably a third or even half over radar estimates - awning thundering downpours. 

anyway, anyone see the 12z FRH grid?   holy moses!  that's gotta be one of the most torrid looks for Friday over Logan i've ever seen on the NAM FOUS.  talking thickness' exceeding 580 DM at that latitude (not heights - thickness) with all three SIGMA level RHs offering open sky at 2 pm ... that's a real eye-stinger drip fest, unhealthy at that.  if not at the thermometers the HI's will absolutely HAVE to be in the big numbers range.   i see Taunton's got advisories for heat now ... might be a little stingy with areal coverage there, considering the Euro and even the typically heat-hater GFS are liking numbers in the 94/75 as the cooler option.  that's still corroborates HI's around 106 if that happens as far back west as FIT-Springfield (save elevations). 

we'll see...  but, man ... 581 DM, blue sky, light west wind coming down slope ... if that DP comes in lower, those MOS temps of 97 pops a 100, no problem.

i think as a punishment, Kevin should be made to do a 10 mile run at 2:15 pm on open country roads, with an armed militia in a convertible driving on his heels.  Who's with me!

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54 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

.70 so far on the day, 3.0" in the last two weeks.  We bask in lushness, though I might have to lower the pool level a bit.

Good news since the kid we asked to water our gardens bailed. lol

Maybe .10"-.20" here in Falmouth.  Much needed though.  Lawns are absolute burnt toast on this part of the cape.  

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30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

classic... rad shows it raining the hardest in a band through the northern 1/3 of CT ... right over the biggest drought cheer-leader on the planet.  

tell me the weather isn't a poet!

BDL with a nice 0.60" in about 40 minutes with +RN moving through.

 

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42 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

funny you mention... 

i was just peering over Taunton's base reflectivity loop and noticing the behavior change compared to prior attempts to move rain events into this region.  in this case ... there is zippo, zero, nadda attenuation and apparent evaporation taking place.  

the anticedent 'faux drought' was substantial enough [apparently] to negatively effect rain producing scenarios ..be it synoptic or convective, but this puppy today is boldly careening through without that appeal - it's almost as though it heralds in a game-changer ... 

i suggest that would be the case anyway, because you can't really host 75 dew points for three days like what's being proposed on masse/mean by the recent oper. model cycles without that being the case.  any pixel shower is going to rain probably a third or even half over radar estimates - awning thundering downpours. 

anyway, anyone see the 12z FRH grid?   holy moses!  that's gotta be one of the most torrid looks for Friday over Logan i've ever seen on the NAM FOUS.  talking thickness' exceeding 580 DM at that latitude (not heights - thickness) with all three SIGMA level RHs offering open sky at 2 pm ... that's a real eye-stinger drip fest, unhealthy at that.  if not at the thermometers the HI's will absolutely HAVE to be in the big numbers range.   i see Taunton's got advisories for heat now ... might be a little stingy with areal coverage there, considering the Euro and even the typically heat-hater GFS are liking numbers in the 94/75 as the cooler option.  that's still corroborates HI's around 106 if that happens as far back west as FIT-Springfield (save elevations). 

we'll see...  but, man ... 581 DM, blue sky, light west wind coming down slope ... if that DP comes in lower, those MOS temps of 97 pops a 100, no problem.

i think as a punishment, Kevin should be made to do a 10 mile run at 2:15 pm on open country roads, with an armed militia in a convertible driving on his heels.  Who's with me!

I have to do a 16 mile training run Sat Am. But at 5:00AM. I like dews.. But not death by dews 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have to do a 16 mile training run Sat Am. But at 5:00AM. I like dews.. But not death by dews 

it actually could be uncomfortable even at that hour in this sort of deal. 

almost like 76/74 at that hour... but the atm is so prime to heating as soon as mere daylight begins to flood over the eastern horizon - talkin' before the actual suns sideways its rays along the tree tops - the temp will tend to start rising.  it'll probably be 85 by 8:45 ... i wouldn't want to do a run much later than that.  

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the euro and ukmet aren't in any hurry to dismantle the WAR arm onto the MA for third run and i'm wondering how quickly this all ends ... don't perceive an all conclusive sweeping fropa there, as heights may linger and cause swamp-ass frontalysis with lingering +1 SD 850 anomalies from PWM to DCA Mon-Wed next week. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it actually could be uncomfortable even at that hour in this sort of deal. 

almost like 76/74 at that hour... but the atm is so prime to heating as soon as mere daylight begins to flood over the eastern horizon - talkin' before the actual suns sideways its rays along the tree tops - the temp will tend to start rising.  it'll probably be 85 by 8:45 ... i wouldn't want to do a run much later than that.  

Running early in the AM is the best..you beat the heat, you beat traffic.. you beat the sun..you beat almost everything..except the dews.. but all the smokers that drive at 6:00am..well. you don't beat them 

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On 8/9/2016 at 9:44 AM, eekuasepinniW said:

BTV must have just adopted them because I've seen "humid" and "less humid" in use for many years.  I haven't noticed "more humid" in actual use before, so I'm a little jelly.

I dug through the code, so I promise you if our forecast meets that criteria our ZFP will read "more humid" for you.

On 8/9/2016 at 11:37 AM, powderfreak said:

Thanks for the response...that makes sense.

Are those parameters that can be set differently by NWS offices depending on where they are in the country?  Ie.  Mobile, Alabama doesn't have it show "Humid" until the daily average is over 70F or 75F dews, because mid-60s is actually a dry day there?  lol.

Exactly. You can change the default trigger for "humid" to whatever you want. I'm guessing most will leave the +/- 10 as the trigger for more or less humid though.

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12z Euro continues to rebuild the WAR in the D6+ period. Looks to me like brief cooling Tues-Thurs before I-95 heats up once again nearing 8/19. If the ECMWF is correct with the trough dipping into the Rockies/NW Plains, that will be another fairly classic heat set-up going into the following week.

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46 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

12z Euro continues to rebuild the WAR in the D6+ period. Looks to me like brief cooling Tues-Thurs before I-95 heats up once again nearing 8/19. If the ECMWF is correct with the trough dipping into the Rockies/NW Plains, that will be another fairly classic heat set-up going into the following week.

IMO it's more a 10 + day period of dews. You can see how dews don't drop much below 70 right thru day 10. Whereas temps will drop below 90 after Saturday.Sunday. As long as trough stays in MW..we just stay massively humid

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

IMO it's more a 10 + day period of dews. You can see how dews don't drop much below 7- right thru day 10. Whereas temps will drop below 90 after Saturday.Sunday. As long as trough stays in MW..we just stay massively humid

Yes, high dews will definitely be the major story, not extreme heat (although there may be the occasional day of 95 or greater in the big cities). It certainly does not look like a cooler than normal pattern for late August; at the very least, biased above normal. It's going to be tough to beat the upcoming period of consecutive high dew point days, but we'll have frequent similar intrusions if the WAR remains in place into Sept.

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42 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

Yes, high dews will definitely be the major story, not extreme heat (although there may be the occasional day of 95 or greater in the big cities). It certainly does not look like a cooler than normal pattern for late August; at the very least, biased above normal. It's going to be tough to beat the upcoming period of consecutive high dew point days, but we'll have frequent similar intrusions if the WAR remains in place into Sept.

You wonder if we all don't set record number of consecutive days of dews above 70. Seems very likely

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You wonder if we all don't set record number of consecutive days of dews above 70. Seems very likely

What are the current records for consecutive days of 70+ dews?

I'm assuming you are well versed in the records around the Northeast if saying its "very likely" "we all" set new records.

 

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