August pattern discussion

[West Point, NY]

45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We lengthy, lengthy high dew

CapeCodWeather.Net ‏@capecodweather  1h1 hour ago

Lengthy stretch of very muggy air looks likely later this week: http://www.capecodweather.net/weather-blog/humidity-comes-back-later-this-week/ …

And with that,  you will lose your heat. As Tip alluded, 95/70 is not Seasons in Seasons in this part of the country. It is an uncommon exception with the frequency of a Tornado in the region .  Why you spout that term constantly among people who know what is statiscally normal, is almost a psychosis. 

[Damage In Tolland]

32 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

And with that,  you will lose your heat. As Tip alluded, 95/70 is not Seasons in Seasons in this part of the country. It is an uncommon exception with the frequency of a Tornado in the region .  Why you spout that term constantly among people who know what is statiscally normal, is almost a psychosis. 

My suggestion : buy 8-12 more rolls of TP than you would normally buy for the week 

[CT Valley Snowman]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have never observed a combination of 100 F over a dew point temperature of 68 (let alone 73 on the latter), in southern New England.  

Granted, I've only lived around here since 1984 ... but in three+ decades that has not happened, where ever I happened to be.  I have seen 99/64 several times, however.  

Because of that, I have developed an 'intuitive' feel for heat around here, based upon experience, where DP of ~ 65 is about the cut-off - anything higher in theta-e taxes the ability to get the temperature higher because of energy balance.  It's not purely intuitive, either; it has to do diabatic heating and air density differences between Kansas and Boston, where the latter's sigma level is near or at sea level.  Think more atmosphere takes more energy input at the same pressure to balance:  PV=NRT;  where P = Pressure, V=Volume, N=Number of moles(mass), R=gas constant, T= Temperature.  

Since I am a hardened obsessed over all aspects of the science and am acutely aware of various seasonal achievements spanning those decades I can say - purely existentially - that combining triple digit temperatures with 70 DPs is thus rare for these parts, perhaps too rare, to fairly use that as an off-set argument. (Note: that is not saying it can't happen, but that physical limitations hinted above means it should be rare - the initial conditions would thusly be equal impressive; which s what the 00z Euro is attempting- haha).

Having said that ... the opposing side of that debate is thus also equally (if not more) flawed in attempts to assuage us from fact on such matters  , as though summer is supposed to be that way?  

Perhaps on another planet in a another solar system.   If SNE was located around the latitudes of the Va Capes and points S, those sort of combinations may be more realistic in terms of frequency, because their solar intake is some critical fraction percent(s) higher during heating hours.   

I was aware that 100/73 was a stretch and close to physically impossible in this area , which was why I stated following that  mixing dews down to the upper 60's.  What I clearly remember in this area, which due to it's more southern latitude and lower elevation and perhaps an even more proficient beneficiary of downsloping, can get hotter than your area in northern massachusetts, is days where temperatures soared into the lower 100's and dews started in the 70's and lowered off into the 60's during the PM and I believe I recall, although I may be mistaken, a couple of times where the HI Values briefly got over 110.  Looking at the Old Farmers Almanac climate records for Windsor Locks CT, On July 21 and July 22 1991 the high temperature was 100 and 100.9 respectively  and the mean dewpoint was around 68, now perhaps that would indicate a morning dew in the low 70's mixing down to the mid 60's and I was a little over aggressive in my assertions but I was going from childhood and teenage memories of staring at the T.V waiting for Weather Channel updates of the hourly temps and heat indexes  I have not and probably will never see a 100/73 ,but I believe here in the Death Valley we've experienced a 95/75 before and possibly a 100/68. although I will need to do more research to concretely prove that.  

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

I was aware that 100/73 was a stretch and close to physically impossible in this area , which was why I stated following that  mixing dews down to the upper 60's.  What I clearly remember in this area, which due to it's more southern latitude and lower elevation and perhaps an even more proficient beneficiary of downsloping, can get hotter than your area in northern massachusetts, is days where temperatures soared into the lower 100's and dews started in the 70's and lowered off into the 60's during the PM and I believe I recall, although I may be mistaken, a couple of times where the HI Values briefly got over 110.  Looking at the Old Farmers Almanac climate records for Windsor Locks CT, On July 21 and July 22 1991 the high temperature was 100 and 100.9 respectively  and the mean dewpoint was around 68, now perhaps that would indicate a morning dew in the low 70's mixing down to the mid 60's and I was a little over aggressive in my assertions but I was going from childhood and teenage memories of staring at the T.V waiting for Weather Channel updates of the hourly temps and heat indexes  I have not and probably will never see a 100/73 ,but I believe here in the Death Valley we've experienced a 95/75 before and possibly a 100/68. although I will need to do more research to concretely prove that.  

i still suggest that 60s DPs (above 65) are less common ...even into the upper 90s. 

 

but, it's data that's out there - just too lazy. it is what it is... 

[CT Valley Snowman]

991 7 18 97 69 T 0.0 0.0 1991 7 19 100 72 0.00 0.0 0.0 1991 7 20 100 71 0.00 0.0 0.0 1991 7 21 101 71 0.23 0.0 0.0 1991 7 22 92 69 T 0.0 0.0 1991 7 23 97 72

 

Those days highlighted back in July 1991. 3 days in a row with a high of 100 and lows above 70 at BDL. I'm thinking that's when I remember the hottest heat indexes I've ever seen but does anyone know how to find the information on the hourly dewpoint readings?

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

I was aware that 100/73 was a stretch and close to physically impossible in this area , which was why I stated following that  mixing dews down to the upper 60's.  What I clearly remember in this area, which due to it's more southern latitude and lower elevation and perhaps an even more proficient beneficiary of downsloping, can get hotter than your area in northern massachusetts, is days where temperatures soared into the lower 100's and dews started in the 70's and lowered off into the 60's during the PM and I believe I recall, although I may be mistaken, a couple of times where the HI Values briefly got over 110.  Looking at the Old Farmers Almanac climate records for Windsor Locks CT, On July 21 and July 22 1991 the high temperature was 100 and 100.9 respectively  and the mean dewpoint was around 68, now perhaps that would indicate a morning dew in the low 70's mixing down to the mid 60's and I was a little over aggressive in my assertions but I was going from childhood and teenage memories of staring at the T.V waiting for Weather Channel updates of the hourly temps and heat indexes  I have not and probably will never see a 100/73 ,but I believe here in the Death Valley we've experienced a 95/75 before and possibly a 100/68. although I will need to do more research to concretely prove that.  

Hot Saturday

[weathafella]

58 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hot Saturday

8/2/75

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

8/2/75

That was low 100s and mid 70s dews...and a MWN all-time record high. So it's physically possible up here.

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

That was low 100s and mid 70s dews...and a MWN all-time record high. So it's physically possible up here.

The best reading was the 107 at KBED.  100 at ACK ain't hay either!

[Typhoon Tip]

we know it's physically possible - no one ever said it wasn't, at least that i'm aware. if someone did, they're equally at fault.

i thought the discussion centered around commonality and frequency in this part of the country, and to that ...less is best    ...for few reasons. 

but to set expectations for "summer" as though it needs to do what is statistically shown to be LESS common, if experience isn't enough ... like 100/70 or even 100/67, to be successful (whatever the f that means in the first place...) is tantamount to absurdity.  those of us that pointed well me, that out put in bold that it was not saying it is impossible.  

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Stretch of minimum 6-8 days straight of 90+ at BDL starts tomorrow . This time with high dews 

[Isotherm]

Geopotential heights will be fairly high -- in fact -- higher than we've seen this season with 588-94dm extending poleward into New England. However, 850's don't look terribly impressive at least on the current proggs; most data suggests a protracted period of 18-21c air which will roughly translate to 88-94 for most areas. Classic period of HHH weather coming up. No extreme heat, but much of the I-95 corridor should add several 90 degree days over the next week. Beyond this week, a warmer than normal pattern will continue in the means as the mean trough axis shifts into the Lakes (W ridge / WAR).

[dendrite]

14 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

we know it's physically possible - no one ever said it wasn't, at least that i'm aware. if someone did, they're equally at fault.

i thought the discussion centered around commonality and frequency in this part of the country, and to that ...less is best    ...for few reasons. 

but to set expectations for "summer" as though it needs to do what is statistically shown to be LESS common, if experience isn't enough ... like 100/70 or even 100/67, to be successful (whatever the f that means in the first place...) is tantamount to absurdity.  those of us that pointed well me, that out put in bold that it was not saying it is impossible.  

 

I was replying to CTvalley who was sorta questioning if it had ever happened down there before.

[dendrite]

8/2006, 6/1952, and 7/1977 are a few other examples at BDL. It's definitely rare like tip said. I mean, 100F days are rare themselves and thermodynamically it's tough to push the temp envelope that high with dewpoints so high.

[dendrite]

20 hours ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

991 7 18 97 69 T 0.0 0.0 1991 7 19 100 72 0.00 0.0 0.0 1991 7 20 100 71 0.00 0.0 0.0 1991 7 21 101 71 0.23 0.0 0.0 1991 7 22 92 69 T 0.0 0.0 1991 7 23 97 72

 

Those days highlighted back in July 1991. 3 days in a row with a high of 100 and lows above 70 at BDL. I'm thinking that's when I remember the hottest heat indexes I've ever seen but does anyone know how to find the information on the hourly dewpoint readings?

Those 3 days were meh for dews. 8/2/2006 was more impressive.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Those 3 days were meh for dews. 8/2/2006 was more impressive.

Pulled off a 100/73 at TAN that day. HI of 110F.  Impressive.

[radarman]

21 hours ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

 I believe here in the Death Valley we've experienced a 95/75 before

 

You might have got there 9/11/13, though CEF looks to have topped out at like 94/74 (concurrently)

[tamarack]

15 hours ago, weathafella said:

The best reading was the 107 at KBED.  100 at ACK ain't hay either!

PWM 103, BGR 102, but the most unbelievable was BHB at 101.  We were there that afternoon, after trying to pick blueberries that morning - first time I ever swam in downeast salt water that wasn't even very cool.  And the fact that those 3 all-time heat records were accompanied by circa-70 dews makes that day probably a 100+ year event, anything but commonplace. 

(My favorite BD of all time came the next day.  BGR forecast for Sunday had been another 100 scorcher, but the day was 70-72 with overcast and a few sprinkles - just gorgeous.  Official BGR max for 8/3 is 79, obviously at 12:01 AM.)

[Typhoon Tip]

 

for 'big heat' nearing/exceeding 100 our solar profit margins are razor thing to begin with.  we don't have a lot of wiggle room to finance super hot weather even during the apex solar times of the year. more times than not, a 101 supporting investment results in 97 or 99 because of fees/commissions to the negotiators.  heh...

that 00z cycle was the hottest 'synoptic appeal' for a Euro run i think i have ever seen.  just on the surface, that looks like 6 straight days of 90+ with a couple or even three in the midst of which have potential.  getting toward mid August...it's climatologically a hot month but it is still on the weaker side of said solar apex (about month either side of June 21), so 100 needs cirrus errant filaments and 10 deg rotation around the wind dial type idiosyncrasies not to f it up. 

eyes rolling ... as some of our hottest days ever (top 10) are owned by August ...even September...of course!  but difference is that by the time the summers ages to these times the in situ patterns also happened to more successfully sans the disruptive tendencies of interrupting vestigial Canadian air ...or disturbances triggering cloud/convective..etc... so heat is thus able to fully utilize more of what solar remains... It's about overlapping what remains of higher sun with conducive patterns --> better potential for uninterrupted diabatic heating.

anyway, it'll be interesting 1 ... if this thing holds and happens, but 2 ... if 100 can be convincingly popped. 

[dendrite]

I would like to see those 80F+ dewpoints for Sat afternoon on the GFS verify.

[Michael05192016]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

for 'big heat' nearing/exceeding 100 our solar profit margins are razor thing to begin with.  we don't have a lot of wiggle room to finance super hot weather even during the apex solar times of the year. more times than not, a 101 supporting investment results in 97 or 99 because of fees/commissions to the negotiators.  heh...

that 00z cycle was the hottest 'synoptic appeal' for a Euro run i think i have ever seen.  just on the surface, that looks like 6 straight days of 90+ with a couple or even three in the midst of which have potential.  getting toward mid August...it's climatologically a hot month but it is still on the weaker side of said solar apex (about month either side of June 21), so 100 needs cirrus errant filaments and 10 deg rotation around the wind dial type idiosyncrasies not to f it up. 

eyes rolling ... as some of our hottest days ever (top 10) are owned by August ...even September...of course!  but difference is that by the time the summers ages to these times the in situ patterns also happened to more successfully sans the disruptive tendencies of interrupting vestigial Canadian air ...or disturbances triggering cloud/convective..etc... so heat is thus able to fully utilize more of what solar remains... It's about overlapping what remains of higher sun with conducive patterns --> better potential for uninterrupted diabatic heating.

anyway, it'll be interesting 1 ... if this thing holds and happens, but 2 ... if 100 can be convincingly popped. 

Don't you all wish we had an 80 degree 6/21 sun angle to work with and New England could have been 33 North latitude instead. Backdoorland would have folded over. 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I would like to see those 80F+ dewpoints for Sat afternoon on the GFS verify.

yeah and i'm wondering if that's why it's tempertaures aren't as impressive ...  kind a hard to heat that much water - heh

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I would like to see those 80F+ dewpoints for Sat afternoon on the GFS verify.

Not impossible (though very, very unlikely.)  In the super-dew stretch during early August of 1988, there was an afternoon when BGR was reporting 93 with RH 68, which would be TD about 81.  That one may be suspect, but during the same period, perhaps the same day, PWM recorded a TD of 77, their highest on record.

And yes, heating that water is tough, especially that late in the year.  My only Sept. 90s (93 and 92 on 9-10) came in 2002 and IIRC, dews were 50s, maybe 60 at best/worst.  My two years with dews around 70 in Sept, 1999 and 2010, didn't get to 90, and the "dewiest", 1999, stopped at mid 80s (with near-70 minima.) 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 hours ago, Isotherm said:

Geopotential heights will be fairly high -- in fact -- higher than we've seen this season with 588-94dm extending poleward into New England. However, 850's don't look terribly impressive at least on the current proggs; most data suggests a protracted period of 18-21c air which will roughly translate to 88-94 for most areas. Classic period of HHH weather coming up. No extreme heat, but much of the I-95 corridor should add several 90 degree days over the next week. Beyond this week, a warmer than normal pattern will continue in the means as the mean trough axis shifts into the Lakes (W ridge / WAR).

the lower troposphere is out of phase with the first half of this episodic ridging ...sure. 

it's another reason in a few way tracking 'big heat' (in my mind) has some intrinsic value over just warming versus summer cooling trends.  parameters need to come together, and timing the llv thermal plumes with the heights ... typically, yeah, they'll come together, but this thing is wasting the first 2 and half or even three days of the ridge with mediocre mixing depth adiabats.   

although .. i will add that 21C at 850 will typically run the thermometer to 100 in a west wind and ample sun even in mid August.  but i got/get what you meant/mean. 

it's essentially low impact heat ( < 'big') for a couple of days prior to whether some of that continental dragon breath can exhale or not. noticing the Euro even tries to accommodate it by subtle height re-burgeon around D6/7, where we end up with 20 C from DCA-BOS at that time.  

[Typhoon Tip]

i'm also noticing some sloshing between the 00z and 12z cycles, too.  been going on for days, where it sees the ridge bulged further polarward, with hotter 850s at 00z compared to a subtler flatter appeal and less mixing depth heat potential off-setting.

 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

August 1988 was the dewiest 

[Typhoon Tip]

if i could snap my fingers and have it happen... how about instant -40 C at 600 mb over top of that just to see -

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

if i could snap my fingers and have it happen... how about instant -40 C at 600 mb over top of that just to see -

Tsar bomba?

[Damage In Tolland]

We may be able to gin up some 80 degree dews with this epic pattern...record high gulf of Mexico temps..pumping all that moisture north..we'll see

 

[Typhoon Tip]

not sure what the wind vectoring is but that type of N_S theta-e gradient extending from Mich to NNE looks ripe for an MCS