August pattern discussion

[StormSurge]

11 hours ago, snowman21 said:

When did they start 10 day forecasts? That will be interesting to see in the winter.

I believe yesterday was the first day.

[Typhoon Tip]

this thing is weird ..

you enter a post, then submit ... and it doesn't submit, post gets lost. 

if you fiddle with back and for' arrows and/or click to reply anew (huh?), and the editor pops up with your post in tact, you better control-C it!  ...less you don't care if it gets lost forever...   

so you try again, submit - but then you notice it's telling you there is unsupported formatting in your post, which is weird, because you edited the post without any foreign content, INSIDE F*&^ING AMERICAN'S EDITOR! ...  A-nnoying!! 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, Dan said:

Temps near 100?

 

things would have to break differently than any models are indicating in the very recent cycles...  (haven't seen the 06z GFS but i'm sure it hot as hell).  but the more depending 00z cycles were having problem with big heat for a various reasons.  

ggem uses mid-level weakness to block the surface high from pressing far enough S of us to get us into deeper layer return flow; this effectively stops the continental conveyor of big heat, and that then allows the ridge to roll over head without ever having to deal with a hot boundary layer in the ma/NE... this is common configuration (if perhaps bias) in that model in its latter extended ranges, and though it has NEVER verified in totality that way, heh... this summer doesn't want to breach triple digit temps anyway, so it gets a participation trophe for being in the competition even though it's losing miserably... heh.

the euro could be biased with too much 'buckling' of the flow in se canada ... it's certainly done that before.. .but, should it's d6-10 evolution play out there is no way imaginable it get even very warm in that pattern, let alone big heat-like.  that's a huge bd event that starts off actually as a normal front but then pivots like a iron curtain boundary and presses through the ma.  talking 71 with clouds and strata on the coast for days in that pattern... maybe 84 out by ALB.  

gfs is inventing different reasons on every run cycle to make for a big ridge without allowing big heat underneath in the lower troposphere - an affectation and frustration it has mastered this summer.  and thus has no consistency with heat muting features... but mutes anyway. like the ggem, the truest big heat of the season has yet again successfully evaded our region regardless of run, such that gfs also gets a gold star for modeling, 'gee - i'm not sure how, but big heat's going to get f so one way or the other ...'

[Dan]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

things would have to break differently than any models are indicating in the very recent cycles...  (haven't seen the 06z GFS but i'm sure it hot as hell).  but the more depending 00z cycles were having problem with big heat for a various reasons.  

ggem uses mid-level weakness to block the surface high from pressing far enough S of us to get us into deeper layer return flow; this effectively stops the continental conveyor of big heat, and that then allows the ridge to roll over head without ever having to deal with a hot boundary layer in the ma/NE... this is common configuration (if perhaps bias) in that model in its latter extended ranges, and though it has NEVER verified in totality that way, heh... this summer doesn't want to breach triple digit temps anyway, so it gets a participation trophe for being in the competition even though it's losing miserably... heh.

the euro could be biased with too much 'buckling' of the flow in se canada ... it's certainly done that before.. .but, should it's d6-10 evolution play out there is no way imaginable it get even very warm in that pattern, let alone big heat-like.  that's a huge bd event that starts off actually as a normal front but then pivots like a iron curtain boundary and presses through the ma.  talking 71 with clouds and strata on the coast for days in that pattern... maybe 84 out by ALB.  

gfs is inventing different reasons on every run cycle to make for a big ridge without allowing big heat underneath in the lower troposphere - an affectation and frustration it has mastered this summer.  and thus has no consistency with heat muting features... but mutes anyway. like the ggem, the truest big heat of the season has yet again successfully evaded our region regardless of run, such that gfs also gets a gold star for modeling, 'gee - i'm not sure how, but big heat's going to get f so one way or the other ...'

 

Understood, trying to get his definition of the incoming "inferno" and "furnace".   For this time of year, those terms would be used if the temps were near 100 for me.  I suspect we see nothing more than 88-92 type stuff, with the low dewpoints we have been seeing.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro back to HHH and heatwave. Difference is that HP to our Nne vanished 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro back to HHH and heatwave. Difference is that HP to our Nne vanished 

it's super close though ... i'd be worried.  look, we stick out into the atlantic. i cannot emphasize enough that the land mass from NYC to PWM, all points east of that line (including mt tolland) is really a penisula with cold labrodor waters are all sides, at all times of the year. granted, the local circulation 'weakens' later in summer, but it ain't 0! ...if given ANY inch of a reason to move GOM air SW and over spread this land mass, the atmosphere will take a mile.  actually true anywhere e of the App mountains along the '95 coastal plain but..etc.. however, nowhere in that domain space does the physics support abusing this land with nw atlantic ass-vomit as much as here, and as much as you like deluding yourself with 'glad we don't live their' denial of truth - heh, i got news for ya.  YES you do.

i admit that it's backed of, perhaps incrementally since it first introduced it a couple few cycles ago, but it could just as easily come back with that - 

i'll tell ya though, this run's particulars are amazing ...if one appreciates excruciatingly nerdy tedium ... Portland Maine is probably 58 F while Logan is flip flops between 85 and 95 depending on which way the 747's are fartin' and giving the BD boundary a tug upon take off ...meanwhile HFD flirts with the naughty O's. 

[Ginx snewx]

Kevs boy

Ed Vallee ‏@EdValleeWx  2m2 minutes ago

With typhoon re-curve next week, the pattern beyond day 5 is chaotic and should be used with caution, especially GFS

[Ginx snewx]

Kevs boy

Ed Vallee ‏@EdValleeWx  2m2 minutes ago

With typhoon re-curve next week, the pattern beyond day 5 is chaotic and should be used with caution, especially GFS

[Typhoon Tip]

mmm, i have reservations about 'recurving' theory as it effects teleconnector domain spaces in august. 

cdc doesn't even compute the PNA in the correlation matrix during J-J-A, because the wave length break-down and chaotic numbers don't transmit the same signals ..thus the correlations also break down.

if that is true, how can the recurve system transmit a signal down stream, either?

the correlation as i've read about it is an autumn and early winter one, probably for a reason too -

that all said, we could miss bigger heat for a cornucopia of reasons anyway ...as has already happened countless times this summer. case in point, if that bd the euro cleverly defies odds with by dangling a +1 PP anomaly over Caribou while NOT moving said bd south ...were to behave?  doesn't matter what's going over the wpo -

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm, i have reservations about 'recurving' theory as it effects teleconnector domain spaces in august. 

cdc doesn't even compute the PNA in the correlation matrix during J-J-A, because the wave length break-down and chaotic numbers don't transmit the same signals ..thus the correlations also break down.

if that is true, how can the recurve system transmit a signal down stream, either?

the correlation as i've read about it is an autumn and early winter one, probably for a reason too -

that all said, we could miss bigger heat for a cornucopia of reasons anyway ...as has already happened countless times this summer. case in point, if that bd the euro cleverly defies odds with by dangling a +1 PP anomaly over Caribou while NOT moving said bd south ...were to behave?  doesn't matter what's going over the wpo -

wave breaks can happen any month and certainly affect downstream modeling

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2564/abstract

 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

wave breaks can happen any month and certainly affect downstream modeling

yeah, that's true - it's going to be more difficult to do so and transmit that signal this far E around the girdle of the hemisphere, when the governing field doesn't have a defined structure is all... that's just not arguable.

but, i guess if one is hoping, maybe a rarer scenario - look, if we need a metaphor to help elucidate that difficulty ...?  think of 'scrambling a signal' in the military - the signal may be very strong at the source, but gets smeared out and lost in imposing noise along the way. 

[Damage In Tolland]

He's telling us what we all know. The GFS sucks and don't use it. How is that showing anything helpful Ginx?

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He's telling us what we all know. The GFS sucks and don't use it. How is that showing anything helpful Ginx?

You quote his tweets often figured you missed that one

[ctsnowstorm628]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You quote his tweets often figured you missed that one

Lol.

 

Tip- with respect to how this re-curve impacts the downstream pattern, being as far east as SNE is, it may not influence quite as much, but this should pump up heights fairly significantly in the PNA region. Given shorter wave length this time of year, it's probably an in and out pattern both warm and cool through much of Aug IMO. 

[ctsnowstorm628]

Lol.

 

Tip- with respect to how this re-curve impacts the downstream pattern, being as far east as SNE is, it may not influence quite as much, but this should pump up heights fairly significantly in the PNA region. Given shorter wave length this time of year, it's probably an in and out pattern both warm and cool through much of Aug IMO. 

And FWIW, think the takeaway from this is that risk increases significantly post 8/15 or so. Think transient troughiness is likely in the east, but with ongoing drought, not sure how temps behave.


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[powderfreak]

9 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 heh... this summer doesn't want to breach triple digit temps anyway, so it gets a participation trophe for being in the competition even though it's losing miserably... heh.

This question is for anyone... but out of curiosity anyone know the return period for triple digit heat in some of the hotter New England stations?  BDL/IJD/FIT/MHT/ASH/BOS/PVD/BTV/CON would be some of the hotter ASOS locations around the region... how often do they hit 100F+? 

I would think its not just this summer that doesn't want to breach triple digits...but more of most years don't want to breach triple digits.  Is it like a once a decade thing or once every 5 years or even once every 20 years?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ctsnowstorm628 said:

And FWIW, think the takeaway from this is that risk increases significantly post 8/15 or so. Think transient troughiness is likely in the east, but with ongoing drought, not sure how temps behave.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

it's just our conjecture on the matter ...but i'd give that transient impact idea more weight closer to September.  in a sense (then) we're probably more similar in design on that, than not.  

thing is, august (for me, anyway) i've always thought of it as the very beginning of the transition season along and N of the 40th parallel.  beneath that...heh, not so much.  but it's the beginning of the 'slope season'.   in early august, that slope is very obtuse... toward september 1, gets a bit more steep, then of course oct/novie it's very steep and so forth.  

the original post said next week - i see that as too soon.  and it hard to pump up the heights in the PNA region without stronger gradients - which makes sense anyway, because the ambient heights are already seasonally burgeoned with altitude. 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This question is for anyone... but out of curiosity anyone know the return period for triple digit heat in some of the hotter New England stations?  BDL/IJD/FIT/MHT/ASH/BOS/PVD/BTV/CON would be some of the hotter ASOS locations around the region... how often do they hit 100F+? 

I would think its not just this summer that doesn't want to breach triple digits...but more of most years don't want to breach triple digits.  Is it like a once a decade thing or once every 5 years or even once every 20 years?

heh, i see the site is double posting you, too -

it's a good question.  it's probably easily answered with an hour of climate data - has anyone spent that hour?

I haven't.  as a point of supposition (only) earlier in the summer, i recall a discussion where it was either I or some other describing actual inundating 100 F temperatures (meaning more than one site ping it drive-by whilst everyone else holds at 97) are relatively rare for us.  of course, our records are up there, but we're just not going to get 4 days of 102 here like they do in the Planes to southern Lake and western OV.  at least ... in my 35 year tenure as a SNE weather sufferer ...I don't ever recrall that which seems to take place out there at least 1::3 years if not more often. 

[Ginx snewx]

BSE rolls on Sun Mon Tuesday wow

[Damage In Tolland]

Man.. Big heat increase next week on all guidance last night. Gonna be one hell of an HHH week past Monday. Nice call by Scooter

[moneypitmike]

By quick count--the high temps this torch-erous summer so far at the Pit (since June 1):

 

High high-temp of 87.5, low high-temp of 60.5

Days 85+:           7

Days 80-84        24

Days 75-79:       17

Days 70-74:        5

Days <70:          7

 

Total Days 80+:  31

Total days <80:  29

 

66*, RN+

 

 

[Dan]

5 minute downpour.....forgot what rain looked and smelled like

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

By quick count--the high temps this torch-erous summer so far at the Pit (since June 1):

 

High high-temp of 87.5, low high-temp of 60.5

Days 85+:           7

Days 80-84        24

Days 75-79:       17

Days 70-74:        5

Days <70:          7

 

Total Days 80+:  31

Total days <80:  29

 

66*, RN+

BSE?

 

Apparently he really does like hot and droughts in summer 

[moneypitmike]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Apparently he really does like hot and droughts in summer 

 

I meant what is BSE?

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

33 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

I meant what is BSE?

 

 

Best Summer Ever. He called last summer BSE and now he's calling this summer BSE. So apparently, hot and dry AN summers are some of his favorite types of summer wx.

[tamarack]

58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man.. Big heat increase next week on all guidance last night. Gonna be one hell of an HHH week past Monday. Nice call by Scooter

I guess GYX didn't get that message.  They're calling for CoC wx thru at least midweek, maybe a refresher late week.  Have also backed off to 40% PoP for today - another one slipping away?

 

Using MPM's layout (sort of) at my usually-cooler site:

Highest:  86, twice - only days 85+  (did hit 85 once in May)   Lowest max:  56, with 3 other sub-60 highs

80+:  21

75-79:  16

70-74:  11

sub-70: 18

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man.. Big heat increase next week on all guidance last night. Gonna be one hell of an HHH week past Monday. Nice call by Scooter

Lie and or outright fabrication/unsubstantiated... 

The op. Euro was the 'big heat' outlier for northern MA and S NH.  It's ensemble mean was significantly less hot - tho still quite warm - around that area. the op. was also cooler at HFD, with only 90, 91, 93 for those three days, and in fact, the graphical depiction of the heat is an eastern MA/New England downsloper special, where this area gets hot off the generosity of Mt Tollands initial very warm grants... as you can see, you're not even invited to the party with 94 max - haha.  none for you:

  

0z and 06z GFS don't even produce a heat wave in SNE... 91, 89, 93 ... type heat...  The GGEM was refusing to let go of it's BD... and has an unrealistic 59 F at Logan and probably 70 max over eastern MA/RI while there are 590 heights overhead.  i have no issues with BDs in general around here .. as i've oft opined so whining in the past... but, its whole evolution looks like typical amplitude biases associated with that embarrassment by the Canadian government of a model so can't be trusted.  

all told, i'd say objectively ALL MODELS LAST NIGHT average typical dog-day August type warmth.  hot for some standards, typical by others.  now, if other models start jumping on board, AND, this spreads to include a vaster area than just eastern/NE MA/SNH then we'll talk

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

BSE rolls on Sun Mon Tuesday wow

 

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man.. Big heat increase next week on all guidance last night. Gonna be one hell of an HHH week past Monday. Nice call by Scooter

lol this stuff cracks me up so much. 

[Ginx snewx]

22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

lol this stuff cracks me up so much. 

Beach type perfection Crystal clear skies visibility unlimited Warm not to hot The most torrid summer of our lives continues 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Best Summer Ever. He called last summer BSE and now he's calling this summer BSE. So apparently, hot and dry AN summers are some of his favorite types of summer wx.

so hot last week haven't had AC on