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August pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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45 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This should all be moved to banter but for the record I'd never put you on ignore, haha, as you drive discussion and seem like a fun guy.  Those that know you say the same thing.  However don't make it sound like its only 1 or 2 people who have been annoyed at the hyperbole at one point or another, and it's not a "in your corner" thing.  Just in the past few days in this thread it's been mentioned by Will, Ryan, Dendrite, MetHerb, Ginxy, etc and you know where most of them stand on the excessive use of adjectives to make things more exciting/abnormal/extreme than they really are.  I do think you are an interesting poster but these discussions will occur from time to time when the concensus doesnt think the hype matches the pattern.  It just is what it is.

Back to weather...August will certainly come in above normal and September will likely start that way.

How far above normal has August been in your area? ORH is (un)officially at +2.9 (72.2F, 22.3C) July was +2.1  (72.3F/22.4C), June +0.6( 65.6F/18.7C) for just about +2F/1.1C above normal for the summer. Warm but not hysterically warm. Let's see what happens this fall. Warm start to colder finish?   

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15 hours ago, dendrite said:

Torchy CON is at +4.0F.

Maine sites, CAR,BGR,PWM, are in the +2.5 to +3.5 range.  I'm at +1.3 at my place, will finish between there and +2, at least top 5 (only 19 yr records) and possibly as high as 3rd warmest.  Ain't catching 2001 or 2002.  Thru today, my met summer temp is only 0.02° from my average.

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August a lock to come in above normal after below normal June and July.  Max temps near normal but mins have been high.

MET summer will look something like this...overall pretty normal on the whole but definitely a trend from cool to warm as the summer progressed.

June...-1.0

July...-0.5

August...+2.0

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45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This summer took a heat turn after mid July. Boy it's been a warm stretch since then. After late week and next weekend, looks like ridging comes back for quite the warm to hot stretch. Take in the cool spell. 

It has, and you can definitely see it in the temp anomalies up here... that -1 June to +2 August, and I know the transition was more biased towards the warm side further south.  I know we've been on the north side of a boundary several times (and still racked up a +2 departure in August) so our highs are lower but overnight mins run above normal with quite a few periods of dews 60<. 

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10 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

This summer took a heat turn after mid July. Boy it's been a warm stretch since then. After late week and next weekend, looks like ridging comes back for quite the warm to hot stretch. Take in the cool spell. 

It's going to be quite the September to remember. Perhaps hottest on record

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice , for some reason people keep posting , probably overdone, but the last deep trough wasn't. At any rate dewless heat is dewless heat and 100% better than yesterday's skank.

 

The ensembles aren't as deep and the op runs can be a little overdone...not always...sometimes the smoothed out means can dumb it down too.  My guess is probably overdone like a lot of the cool shots modeled a week out this summer. Either way, it's coming. Then we sweat.

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