OceanStWx Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: i poked around on the web for a bit but couldn't find much of any evidence that there were GFS upgrades between last summer and this spring; which i looked because the GFS is performing oddly in one specific area, surface SIGMA pressure-patterning, compared to what i remember it being up through last summer. there was an increase in computing capacity ..by an order of magnitude, actually, as well as an incorporaton of a 4-D variable system during the summer of 2015 - not sure how that would cause the 'oddity' (if at all), but in terms of actual physical/mathematical parameters, not sure... basically, the GFS operational run CAN'T bring heat to New England unless the outlook interval(s) is/are < ~ 2 days. anything beyond that, i've just come to the conclusion that it just has physics that will always engineer surface high pressure that is out of sync with the mid levels. in fact, it keeps blithely taking boundaries under ridges some hundreds of kilometers, causing N flow up this way, when we have delta(H) rising when it does...soaring to 590 DAM... and we end up with 74 F in a Golf weather N flow at the surface. it's been plaguing the late short and middle/extended ranges all summer, regardless of pattern idiosyncrasies. it's going to evolve some heat killer reason, regardless... it's not always wrong though... but this 12z run is doing the same thing... Actually the last GFS upgrade was 5/11/16, with the hybrid 4-DVAR system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Actually the last GFS upgrade was 5/11/16, with the hybrid 4-DVAR system. ooooh, hm - they said it was going to be October 2015 -heh, government operation I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: ooooh, hm - they said it was going to be October 2015 -heh, government operation I suppose. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/ The word "upgrade" is debatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/ The word "upgrade" is debatable. ahhaha! ...yeeeah. actually i was wrong though - the petaflop update was October 2015; not the 4-D stuff back on that time. either way, ...and i may be taking some sarcastic license by saying all that; i definitely have noticed though that it's too liberal with cutting fresh clean heat ending surface highs deep into ridge nodes. it really was one of the last global models to admit to the bigger heat signal we went through last week until it was pretty clear and obvious already - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: ahhaha! ...yeeeah. actually i was wrong though - the petaflop update was October 2015; not the 4-D stuff. either way, ...and i may be taking some sarcastic license by saying all that; i definitely have noticed though that it's too liberal with cutting fresh clean heat ending surface highs deep into ridge nodes. it really was one of the last global models to admit to the bigger heat signal we went through last week until it was pretty clear and obvious already - I've noticed a real overabundance of convection from the model this summer. Like it convects every afternoon regardless of the environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 Just now, OceanStWx said: I've noticed a real overabundance of convection from the model this summer. Like it convects every afternoon regardless of the environment. yup yup. that's too - i wonder, as well, how much those propagate out in time to effect/induce broader-scaled errors. Abundance of convection would increase latent heat transer from water vapor to geometry in the atmosphere... gee, the list of perturbation emergence from that one error source alone (intuitively) gets lengthy - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: yup yup. that's too - i wonder, as well, how much those propagate out in time to effect/induce broader-scaled errors. Abundance of convection would increase latent heat transer from water vapor to geometry in the atmosphere... gee, the list of perturbation emergence from that one error source alone (intuitively) gets lengthy - We know that model stats generally are poor in the warm season due to smaller scale influences, so I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt through the winter to see how it responds to big synoptic signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: We know that model stats generally are poor in the warm season due to smaller scale influences, so I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt through the winter to see how it responds to big synoptic signals. yeah, that's a good point about seasonality. it'll be interesting to see how well it does when the r-number increase and pattern mobility slows. SOMEthing has to counter-act the Euro's semi-permanent, day-9 holocaust bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 Man.. After tomorrow it's deep summer as far eyes can see. Furnace long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man.. After tomorrow it's deep summer as far eyes can see. Furnace long range The weekend doesnt look too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 Just now, dendrite said: The weekend doesnt look too bad. Well 85-87 is AN for time of year. But dews lower 60's.. Isn't oppressive no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 Definitely looks warm and not so much COC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 Might have these building highs coming down with onshore flow for coast, but I don't see a lot of nice polar airmasses anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man.. After tomorrow it's deep summer as far eyes can see. Furnace long range 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well 85-87 is AN for time of year. But dews lower 60's.. Isn't oppressive no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Might have these building highs coming down with onshore flow for coast, but I don't see a lot of nice polar airmasses anytime soon. Yup. Kind of like robbing Metherb(Peter) to pay Ginx(Paul). If you get a high you turn flow humid off record warm SST's. No matter how you slice.. You run AC for weeks and weeks still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup. Kind of like robbing Metherb(Peter) to pay Ginx(Paul). If you get a high you turn flow humid off record warm SST's. No matter how you slice.. You run AC for weeks and weeks still Well the ensembles have another cool shot later next week (early Sept). So, that could happen. However, the general theme has been for models to be a little overzealous with troughing in the east. That doesn't mean this has to be the case going forward. With more tropical activity...the models may be volatile going into September. It wouldn't shock me if we stay warm, or see more of an amplified pattern in early September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup. Kind of like robbing Metherb(Peter) to pay Ginx(Paul). If you get a high you turn flow humid off record warm SST's. No matter how you slice.. You run AC for weeks and weeks still Hopefully your AC kept you nice and cool at 980ft during today's hot high of 73F at ORH. Will be interesting to see if we use the air conditioning any more this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 16 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Hopefully your AC kept you nice and cool at 980ft during today's hot high of 73F at ORH. Will be interesting to see if we use the air conditioning any more this summer. Remember those posts last week Zero COC in sight. I don't see any cool air anywhere. It's WAR same pattern, yeah ok Looks like a couple of HHH days before we FROPA, weekend looks sweet. Euro EPS and weeklies continue with the first week coolness. GFS agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 Doodle Mcdoodle Chamberrific can really feel the sun angle change now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 Heat comes back later this week. Weekend into next week looks fairly warm especially inland. McDoodle takes a hiatus until thicknesses get below 564 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 How's that large scale pattern change looking with the War gone and no more AN or dews? Lol. We've seen some laughable cold biased calls all summer.. But that one takes the cake as SE ridge actually rebuilds NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Heat comes back later this week. Weekend into next week looks fairly warm especially inland. McDoodle takes a hiatus until thicknesses get below 564 again. Definitely warmer Friday but it's over for extended periods of HHH lots of FROPAs and NW flow in our future Might even be NE flow Definitely a big change from the August pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Well naturally temps will cool as we head deep into the season. I'm just not sure about prolonged cool and dry weather either. I think Sept is AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Euro actually underforecast this trough overhead. Remember Kevin asking how cool 580 thickness were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well naturally temps will cool as we head deep into the season. I'm just not sure about prolonged cool and dry weather either. I think Sept is AN. No Bermuda high It can be AN but dryer. Nice to see August come in AN precip for SNE sans EMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 I don't think it will be dry either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Looks a lot like early summer with a good majority of the days warm with low dews. Pretty typical climo for September. What a fabulous week this week if you are on vacation. Warm days cool nights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I don't think it will be dry either. We should just let him go. Will be fun to bump over next few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't think it will be dry either. Lots of FROPA so probably not, pretty much typical September. Dry in a dew point sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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