August pattern discussion

[CoastalWx]

Zzzzzzzzzz.

[Damage In Tolland]

Furnace September shaping up..with little in way of rain  chances 

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Furnace September shaping up..with little in way of rain  chances 

This is the August discussion thread but link?

[Damage In Tolland]

CFS?

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

CFS?

 Do you have a link to your call?

[Lava Rock]

39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Furnace September shaping up..with little in way of rain  chances 

man I hope not. Looking to re-install lawn for the 2nd time since last Fall. Gotta have some rain from mother nature. this pattern can't last forever.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

There is an unfolding threat after day 3 for Nova Scotia and maybe SNE.  Stay tuned, models are still at odds if anything develops at all though.

i do think it is interesting that the Euro agrees with the Atlantic sub-tropical ridge expression ...yet, goes ahead and drills TC's it barely even acknowledges are present .. right through it. 

for starters, typically, weaker TCs by physical limitation are not as tapped into the deeper layer steering field, and usually in those scenarios the trade vectors dictate the course of those shallower systems.  that would tend to keep them from gaining as much longitude prior to curling into the Atlantic graveyard.  

having said that, it's not just an oddity reserved to the Euro's handling, either.  from what i can tell, the GGEM/GFS/UKMET and that "GONAPS" model are also tending to take any TCs that evolve out there and pull them polarward right through a burgeoning subtropical ridge in the mean. 

however, we have seen TCs go through ridging before, but they are usually intense systems that find paths of least resistance, which may happen to be immediately astride the actual axis/nodal points of the highest heights.  paths of least resistance may happen to be through the general circumvallate of the ridging in general ... giving the appearance of cutting through.  but usually, the path of least resistance remains along the equitorial side of the ridge bulge even for stronger systems.  

so all told, i'm willing to hunch that these models are bit too early to cut Fiona and whatever else evolves out there, too soon to the N ... just not certain because of the above caveats. 

having said all that, i don't really see the need for "There is an unfolding threat..."  here.  as all this implies ...there is a tremendous amount of uncertainties and best guesses, and 'courses of least regret' (pun intended  ) still put even money all over Atlantic Basin at best, for anything beyond 4 or 5 days. 

[Typhoon Tip]

it does appear we may go through a 7 to 10 day stint of quasi-static WAR interference pattern here, but ... i'm at a loss as to how that means "the month of September", nor how any of that says much about the longer turn precipitation distribution (beyond a miss-use of the CDC's pretty colored maps that we tried and tried, and tried again to quantify and explain what they really mean but since we are clearly talking to lead the information just bounces off and never registers...).  

i think absurdities are lopped onto the social media just because people want to read the counter (obvious) explanations and it's a bating thing...  duh.

i'll bite: you can't really even go on seasonal trend, because the trend currently belies the fact that we have been getting more rain over the last 10 days - if taking that time span out of the 'trend' and looking at it individually, we are probably in a era that is closer to normal - certainly nothing as dry as before that.  

there are too many possibilities with WAR, too... for one, the WAR pushes west and forces the ambient jet NW through the Lakes: when there are quasi -EPO bulges over western B.C., that ripples troughs down stream that pancake against said ridge, ...exciting and stronger than normal mid level flow, intensifying the mean boundary and boom...now your sending organized convective objects along the 'ring of fire' (as it's said) into the eastern OV/NE/N MA regions.   you could set up a training scenarios, too.  you could even have a weakness verifiy over the MV and with WAR in place ur sending a deep Bahama blue fire hose right on up - gosh forbid some TC get's hung up in that and then ur talkin' something else altogether.  

whatever ...   

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

 Do you have a link to your call?

+KFS is the only index you need to know.

[Ginx snewx]

Total COC week incoming 

[Damage In Tolland]

Man..that WAR just rebuilds right back in for Thurs and Fri next week with 90+ and dews. That thing is tenacious. Mon and Tues normal with lower dews and then it ends.

[powderfreak]

40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Total COC week incoming 

Today was beautiful... Near 80F with dews in the mid-50s with a breeze and full sunshine, not even any orographic afternoon cumulus.  Crisp views to NH (New Hampshire not New Haven) and Quebec,  vivid from Killington to Jay Peak.

Chamber of Commerce August day.

[Ginx snewx]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man..that WAR just rebuilds right back in for Thurs and Fri next week with 90+ and dews. That thing is tenacious. Mon and Tues normal with lower dews and then it ends.

that is totally opposite of what your boy Ryan just said lol I mean cmon read a map once in a while 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 A few days of lower humidity early-mid next week before the WAR retrogrades again w/ the mean trough in the Central ).

 

[Ginx snewx]

38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Ryan or Isotherm hmmm

[Isotherm]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ryan or Isotherm hmmm

 

Today's 12z ECWMF and its associated ensemble mean continue to become more bullish with the resistance along the East Coast. 500mb geopotential heights are depicted above normal for the entire run on the ensembles (through early September) save for a 24 hour period early next week. 850mb temperatures are depicted warmer than normal on the East Coast through the beginning of September, except for 48 hours Mon/Tues next week. 

The extreme heat is over, but the overall pattern is one that remains conducive for warmer than normal temperatures and generally humid conditions near the coast. Disclaimer: these thoughts do not apply for interior New England/Northeast, as there will be more cooling/drying influence from the west. However, for the I-95 corridor, it looks very warm and humid for the vast majority of days through the beginning of September.

 

D 5-10 ECMWF ensembles:

D 10-15:

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

SSTs are ablazing.

[Damage In Tolland]

Isotherm FTW

subtropical ridge over the southeast states re-emerging and building
northward along the eastern seaboard Wed thru Fri. This will result
in a return to warmer and more humid weather for southern New
England. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Torchy month to date

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

you know ... for those that may have (if ever) assumed 'big heat' was over with ... heh, you may be in trouble.

i give it about ... (wagging head, looking at the ceiling) 20% chance of succeeding; which is probably pretty high for D 6+ heading toward September.  But that pattern just needs a plume of Sonoran release to rattle around in it (such as the Euro depicts, just slightly too far S to get us underneath) and September or not, you're pushing the temperature higher than 95. 

just as recently as 2013 Logan popped a 97 in the middle of September.   

[Dan76]

#Donotuninstall

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

you know ... for those that may have (if ever) assumed 'big heat' was over with ... heh, you may be in trouble.

i give it about ... (wagging head, looking at the ceiling) 20% chance of succeeding; which is probably pretty high for D 6+ heading toward September.  But that pattern just needs a plume of Sonoran release to rattle around in it (such as the Euro depicts, just slightly too far S to get us underneath) and September or not, you're pushing the temperature higher than 95. 

just as recently as 2013 Logan popped a 97 in the middle of September.   

Meh.  Anything that comes in now will be short-lived.  The summer's back has been broken.  Climo being climo.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

i poked around on the web for a bit but couldn't find much of any evidence that there were GFS upgrades between last summer and this spring; which i looked because the GFS is performing oddly in one specific area, surface SIGMA pressure-patterning, compared to what i remember it being up through last summer. 

there was an increase in computing capacity ..by an order of magnitude, actually, as well as an incorporaton of a 4-D variable system during the summer of 2015 - not sure how that would cause the 'oddity' (if at all), but in terms of actual physical/mathematical parameters, not sure...

basically, the GFS operational run CAN'T bring heat to New England unless the outlook interval(s) is/are < ~ 2 days.  anything beyond that, i've just come to the conclusion that it just has physics that will always engineer surface high pressure that is out of sync with the mid levels.  in fact, it keeps blithely taking boundaries under ridges some hundreds of kilometers, causing N flow up this way, when we have delta(H) rising when it does...soaring to 590 DAM... and we end up with 74 F in a Golf weather N flow at the surface.  

it's been plaguing the late short and middle/extended ranges all summer, regardless of pattern idiosyncrasies.  it's going to evolve some heat killer reason, regardless... 

it's not always wrong though...  but this 12z run is doing the same thing... 

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Meh.  Anything that comes in now will be short-lived.  The summer's back has been broken.  Climo being climo.

 

 

i doubt it - 'summer's back' can't be broken if we're staring down the barrel of THAT pattern.  jesus..  

 

[wxeyeNH]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i doubt it - 'summer's back' can't be broken if we're staring down the barrel of THAT pattern.  jesus..  

 

Tip,  I just have to give you kudos for under understanding and knowledge.  Much is what you write about is over my head but the depth you go into with your discussions is amazing.  The boards are very lucky to have you!

[moneypitmike]

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i doubt it - 'summer's back' can't be broken if we're staring down the barrel of THAT pattern.  jesus..  

 

Yes it can.  Climo will not be denied.  That's not to say we won't have short-lived warmth (as I said in y initial comment), but it will be transient.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Meh.  Anything that comes in now will be short-lived.  The summer's back has been broken.  Climo being climo.

 

 

Not like you get big heat anyway, haha.

[Typhoon Tip]

Heats always transient around here - wtf are you smoking.  

Look ... it's not going to make it winter again any faster by lobbing "summer's back is broken " comments at us, nor will it make the reality of mid summer heat looming as a pattern any less, either  

 

[moneypitmike]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heats always transient around here - wtf are you smoking.  

Look ... it's not going to make it winter again any faster by lobbing "summer's back is broken " comments at us, nor will it make the reality of mid summer heat looming as a pattern any less, either  

 

Jeez, Tip--a little too much caffeine this morning?  Lighten up a bit.

 

76.4, nice breeze.

[powderfreak]

lol heat is serious bizness.