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August pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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20 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

You can see the deep, dark greens that OKX sampled this morning, versus that boundary strung across northern MA. And then there's FVE, where SPC didn't even bother to plot isodrosotherms.

850mb.gif

 

yep ... 

prolly there'll be storms firing west to east along the theta-e slope that train and taunt as we up here n are safe and sound in our 'un'modeled dry hell, too -

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ocean' ... also, the more i look at that analysis, that's smacks as a diffused warm frontal too - i don't think the warm front ever really got N of a BUF-ALB-ORH-PVD line...  sort of smeared there and obscured but just stepping back it's not hard to place one there - 

that's probably going to collocated the BD face smack too - 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ocean' ... also, the more i look at that analysis, that's smacks as a diffused warm frontal too - i don't think the warm front ever really got N of a BUF-ALB-ORH-PVD line...  sort of smeared there and obscured but just stepping back it's not hard to place one there - 

that's probably going to collocated the BD face smack too - 

Doesn't matter the time of year, warm fronts struggle around these parts.

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i'm noticing these convective cells are acquiring a subtle S bias in their motion ... that is also telling that there is a pesky steering field that is blocking the true warm front from coming as far NE as modeled.

interesting...  these observations et al certainly argue for something like that... 

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Doesn't matter the time of year, warm fronts struggle around these parts.

you know!  

jesus... it's like, SW flow at every level with zero inhibition:  warm stalls.  

yeah but -NOPE... f you. no boundary for you.  challenges physical patience...hahahaha.

oh man - dry begets dry i suppose. 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This day 2. Yesterday was a miss with the showers. It started Tues and should get to at least Sunday . Not sure why you keep posting the same things? Yes.. Poolside 

OK...so you're just adding up 90 degree days and weren't calling for 6-8 straight days of 90+.  I figured you'd have some weird logic...lol.

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BD front lurks like a spider ... ready and timing its pounce onto the E/NE zones... eastern NH, MA and probably all of RI ... if you reside in these regions of SNE, there is a distinct possibility that you are uninvited to the heat party tomorrow ...

i suppose it's possible that the one time in a million, when any mere hint of a BD DOESN'T actually succeed in changing the orbit of Jupiter and violating every physical law known to Nature, fails to actually incur ... but the odds of that are lower if one understands the least excuse imaginable butt-bang BD climo the afflicts the "Massachusetts peninsula" ...

seriously, Caribou Maine last hour hangs in October glory at 57 F with clouds and gentle NE flow ... Jeez, when put that way, seems quite refreshing after merely stepping out of doors in Metrowest (or should it be deemed, microwave oven).    

meanwhile, higher resolution visible satellite loops are hinting at SW motion initiating in the lower/strata levels, between D.E.M. and west NS Maritime areas; that is undoubtedly the sag beginning.   eventually, should the 12z NAM prevail... the wedge gets defined and the only sinuous organization on base-reflectivity will start wobbling with discerned into through the area.  the timing is shortly after or near 00z tonight...  Logon goes to 66 or so and holds there through most of tomorrow ... probably shrouded in strata due to the shallowness of the cutting-in air mass not having a substantial enough mixing depth to dry it out... Meanwhile, HFD may be 100 F at 3pm tomorrow...  Kind of interesting.. in fact, i almost wonder if it's warmer in ORH than BOS/Logan tomorrow.  i'm wondering if that 'lift edge' along where it stalls might also serve as trigger for trainers... yes the heights are high, but, with DPs averaging Floridian, that off-sets with superman CAPE.  

i've actually decided i like the idea of natural A.C. refreshment overnight...  i'm sitting here working from home today, and the AC needs to be turned on.  NGRID left a message on my phone to set my thermo-stat to 78 - which for a healthy adult male is like, ...what, replace heat with heat?  okay - i think they think all homes are central air now? such that 78 becomes a moderate cooling effort??  

interesting.  anyway, the 00z Euro liked the boundary for the second run in a row so, as far as deterministics/modeling... i don't have as much issue with the NAM this time.  it's all brief though... 12 to 18 hours later the region is waft securely back in ... in fact, the NAM's FRH grid would support about 95/74 in Boston on Sunday. woof!

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

BDF maybe makes it to RI border, but will be shallow. Starts to retreat later tomorrow. Could be some boomers near and just on the cool side of it. 

Safe to assume it makes it thru the south shore, or is it still a question mark?  Hosting a 91st birthday for my father-in-law midday tomorrow in the back yard and we want him to make it to 92.  Also, I'll be grilling, so I'd like to make it thru the day!

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