Morris Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 SREF mean is 1.45" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 RGEM is really far south and seems to be nailing the big amounts in S NJ-it's missing the Hudson Valley training though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 If it could shift south to the city, it can shift further south. The thing is that parts of south Jersey have 2 inches already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 Picked up .57 with the NW batch here in Vernon but we were on the edge of the heaviest returns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 23 minutes ago, Irishmick9 said: Picked up .57 with the NW batch here in Vernon but we were on the edge of the heaviest returns Not a drop of rain in Highland Lakes. LMAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 What does RPM show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 At the very least this is an exciting event and brings us all together again, many for the first time in weeks (points finger to mirror) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 9 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: At the very least this is an exciting event and brings us all together again, many for the first time in weeks (points finger to mirror) Meh. More like a headache trying to drive into work tomorrow morning. An exciting event would be this slug of moisture in the heart of winter with temps in the 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 6 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Meh. More like a headache trying to drive into work tomorrow morning. An exciting event would be this slug of moisture in the heart of winter with temps in the 20's. That's fair but I see glass half full we could be as little as 13 weeks away from our 1st snow (rare but has happened) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 Based on the HRRR I think the heaviest axis is near Rt 80 and over by 7AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 31 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Based on the HRRR I think the heaviest axis is near Rt 80 and over by 7AM. looks like it. And if so, the Euro will have been way overdone with the big rains generally speaking. (had a wide swath of 3-4 inches from ABE to eastern LI) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 And HRRR only has half an inch of rain for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 9 minutes ago, Morris said: And HRRR only has half an inch of rain for the city. Don't fall into the trap of taking it too literally. I don't think you're going to see 3" in West Milford and 0.50" in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 0z NAM much drier for the city and surround areas .5 to maybe 1.25....also ends it by 10am. looks like the 18z RGEM with the prize in S NJ- 4K nam is even further south... Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 0z 12km NAM cut way back on the precipitation overall. Only an inch for the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, Morris said: 0z 12km NAM cut way back on the precipitation overall. Only an inch for the metro. whenever I see the RGEM with a vastly different solution 12-18 hrs out, I know we're in trouble. At least we'll get a good drink, but the big totals 2-4 inches seem to be off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 4km NAM has a quarter of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 I'm actually in Wildwood Crest right now, and areas not far north of here got some very heavy rain. After a half hour or so of rain where I am, the skies cleared a bit and we were able to watch tons of lightning over the ocean which was amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 Radar returns over here in PA are anemic, had fully expected heavy drought busting rains tonight based on most guidance. What happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 1 hour ago, Morris said: 0z 12km NAM cut way back on the precipitation overall. Only an inch for the metro. Seems like it will be correct judging by the radar. All the heavy stuff way down south, much lighter and huge dry slot look to be headed this way. Good thing it's not snow we are talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 The heavier rains weren't forecasted to occur until well after midnight so it's still early in the game but not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 And the GFS cut back. From 4 inches to 1 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 29, 2016 Author Share Posted July 29, 2016 Id wait before calling bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 i think the 3"+ amounts aren't in the cards for us anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 On 7/27/2016 at 7:56 PM, Morris said: Discussed a day in advance? It now has to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 29, 2016 Author Share Posted July 29, 2016 1"+ is still possible I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 22 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Id wait before calling bust. The problem is the radar looks so bad. We'll need some explosive activity in the next couple hours. Watch us end up doing better on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 57 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i think the 3"+ amounts aren't in the cards for us anymore Euro was the only model showing that Looks like 0.5 -1.00 for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 S NJ looks to do best in the area based on radar and fresh model runs.... even latest HRRR not looking great. Flash flooding wouldn't be great for morning commute but hopefully NYC gets a decent watering (.75-1" ?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 Wow that storm just blew up out of nowhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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