bluewave Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 12Z Euro is really wet with widespread 3-4" NYC Metro and a 5.21" Jackpot out in Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: 12Z Euro is really wet with widespread 3-4" NYC Metro and a 5.21" Jackpot out in Suffolk County. WOW. And that all comes in a short time. Figure Upton will get flash flood watches up shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Amazing deluge on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 The Euro has nada in areas where GFS floods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Morris said: The Euro has nada in areas where GFS floods. that's going to be the nature of this one...it's a thin band of heavy rains...where it sets up is still a bit in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 LOL sharp cutoff North of Rt. 80. Reminds me of the blizzard lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 That's what I've been thinking, the cutoff should be right around Route 80 from prolific rains to decent rains; with the bulk hitting the Route 78 corridor. There seems to be some semblance of hp pressing down from western upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: LOL sharp cutoff North of Rt. 80. Reminds me of the blizzard lol Wonderful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 we're not going to have an idea of exactly where the axis will be until late tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Flash flood watch up for the entire Upton CWA - THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NEW YORK CITY...AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT IS FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE...AND URBANIZED AREAS. SMALLER FLASHIER STREAMS MAY ALSO FLOOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 12 minutes ago, forkyfork said: we're not going to have an idea of exactly where the axis will be until late tonight Which model solution do you favor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Mt. Holly extended the FFW Northward as well to include all of NNJ, NE PA and up into Southern NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 59 minutes ago, Morris said: The Euro has nada in areas where GFS floods. LHV pretty dry this run then? Most stays south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Just now, sn0w said: LHV pretty dry this run then? Most stays south? verbatim it's a LI to NYC jackpot with a sharp cutoff N and W of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 wow is that a 3.5 PWAT? that's got to be some sort of feedback error? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: Where the best training sets up is going to get drenched. The HRRR should be interesting along with the 0z runs for an idea of where the jackpot zone will be. In any event, I haven't seen the Euro go this high on PWATS before in the Northeast. Would be a new record if it verifies. WHAT??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: wow is that a 3.5 PWAT? No. It's off the scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 18z NAM looks like the Euro, maybe a bump North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z NAM looks like the Euro, maybe a bump North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 2.5 makes more sense. If the euro is right with those PWATS and someone gets a 10 inch amount then I will say it was onto something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Should be interesting. From what I've seen, some models are keying on a two separate areas, with a decent size dry slot in between; others showing a general cut off to the north. Here's hoping we all luck out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 The HRRR really likes the 06-12z time period for a pretty heavy shellacking area-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 GFS Holy Cow! Shifted south and has close to 4 inches for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said: Should be interesting. From what I've seen, some models are keying on a two separate areas, with a decent size dry slot in between; others showing a general cut off to the north. Here's hoping we all luck out! You can already see the dry slot/hole, but that's the nature of this , going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 still very early but looks like nyc will dry slot for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Was driving home from Millburn(less than 1 mile away), was pouring rain there, got home, was barely raining. the jackpots will likely be a very precise strip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Already 3″ of rain near Vineland, NJ so far — and training of heavy rain occurring in the NW part of the state too. https://t.co/oM4bPJoR6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Parts of NWNJ approaching 1" per radar estimates. Believe they were in the fringe zone? Mini jackpot forming from just east of Scranton into Middletown, NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Just a few drops for me...heavier stuff went to the north and south..hope it stays that way...on that nam run I get less than .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.