dmillz25 Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 Eluding to what Forky mentioned with PWATS at 2.4" which is a record for this time of year. Models are now converging on an idea of a heavy drenching rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 Discussed a day in advance? It now has to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 GFS caved and looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Got to imagine there would be a flash flooding risk for those of us who got drenched yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 3 hours ago, UnionWX said: GFS caved and looks great. Heaviest rain is north. Not good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Morris said: Heaviest rain is north. Not good enough. The models have been fluctuating from run to run on where the axis of the heavy rain sets up, it will be difficult to pin down at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, Morris said: Heaviest rain is north. Not good enough. Yep 0z GFS moved north edit: RGEM has joined as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 models tend to be too far north with MCS rainfall and the best cape and chances for more interesting weather will be near the low and south of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 6z GFS continued the theme. Heaviest north of the city, but over an inch for the city. NAM 12km had less for the city. 4km NAM had 6!! inches bullseye over the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Looking at the morning models, 4K NAM jackpots the city, RGEM is way south, and regular NAM and GFS a bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Extremely high PWATs. NAM has max of 2.78". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, Morris said: Extremely high PWATs. NAM has max of 2.78". if that's right, it's almost unheard of for around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 12km NAM shifted a little south and has more rain for the city than 6z. 1.2-1.5". Jackpot is LHV to most of CT. 4km has 2-3 inches for most of the city and a small jackpot of 6 inches in central jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 We usually do well in these morning events. Tomorrows commute could be awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 GFS shifted south. Has 1.5" for the city. Jackpot is NWNJ, HV and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 GFS has up to 4 inches in a band from West central CT down through N NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 What's the thought on end time? Based on the NAM Sim radar it looks to be wrapping up around 2pm but how does that fall in line with other guidance? (I've never been any good at determining timing based on models as the hourly maps show precipitation that has fallen in the past 6 hours and not currently falling) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 1 minute ago, sn0w said: What's the thought on end time? Based on the NAM Sim radar it looks to be wrapping up around 2pm but how does that fall in line with other guidance? (I've never been any good at determining timing based on models as the hourly maps show precipitation that has fallen in the past 6 hours and not currently falling) that looks accurate based on the other models as well. Pre-dawn start now and ending by 12-2pm depending on locale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 28, 2016 Author Share Posted July 28, 2016 Where's yanksfan? he should be all over this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: the weather gods are delivering a pre-wedding gift to you. (Locally if we get the goods here we'd have 2 excessive events in the same week) 3 inches on Monday and maybe 3 more on Friday? I just hope most of this Saturday and then my wedding day are dry. Then I'll be gone for 2 weeks, so expect two hurricanes while I'm away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I just hope most of this Saturday and then my wedding day are dry. Then I'll be gone for 2 weeks, so expect two hurricanes while I'm away. That poor girl . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Even Sunday is starting to look interesting; maybe a drought buster of a weekend? Should cut into the deficit nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 9 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Even Sunday is starting to look interesting; maybe a drought buster of a weekend? Should cut into the deficit nicely. GFS has a jackpot of close to 8 inches for the 2 events combined for SW CT and SE NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 22 minutes ago, PB GFI said: That poor girl . I'm marrying up for sure. No doubt in my mind that I'm the luckiest guy in the world to have been fortunate enough to find someone as great as she is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Water Vapor imagery is looking good to me, seems to stretch back into the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Still waiting for someone to post the Ukie, JMA, navgem, French and GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, Morris said: Still waiting for someone to post the Ukie, JMA, navgem, French and GGEM. those are all 2nd tier models. CMC looks like the GFS but a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Severe thunderstorm watch for southern two thirds of Jersey until 12 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 SPC: Severe Thunderstorm Watch (Middlesex, Somerset, Hunterdon Counties on south) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0418.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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