CT Rain Posted July 29, 2016 Author Share Posted July 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That's why I'm definitely an advocate more of the ensemble approach with the hi-res stuff, especially when it comes to accumulated products. I mean the HRRR runs so frequently, and changes so often that an ensemble can really show you how things are changing hour by hour. And that NCAR ensemble really needs to be run at 12z too. The time-lagged HRRR stuff has shown some promise I think. Getting better high res ensembles... especially with CAMs is really key to our success. GEFS/EPS do well with synoptics but so often our extreme events are modulated by convection over the Atlantic to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 mm, i think the other red flag was that the models were placing those QPF bombs all over the place to begin with. I like what Ryan mentions about LLJ being cut off in reality, becuase the baroclinic zone ended up farther e - the convective feed-back implication of the models having the low too far NW and so forth... but, prior to all that happening, the inconsistencies with the QPF placement to me was a definite reason not to get to hopped up on a big rain result. we knew the whole ordeal was convectively tarnished (for lack of better word) and form my own experience, convection and baroclinic lows (possibly related to Oceans' comments re CAPE/instability versus gradient) more than merely seem to conflict - the former 'feeds back' at grid points and that disrupts the 'fluid evolution' of the baroclinic wave/strata form/advection phenomenon. fascinating sort of study in that I suppose - even though we missed out on much needed rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: mm, i think the other red flag was that the models were placing those QPF bombs all over the place to begin with. I like what Ryan mentions about LLJ being cut off in reality, becuase the baroclinic zone ended up farther e - the convective feed-back implication of the models having the low too far NW and so forth... but, prior to all that happening, the inconsistencies with the QPF placement to me was a definite reason not to get to hopped up on a big rain result. we knew the whole ordeal was convectively tarnished (for lack of better word) and form my own experience, convection and baroclinic lows (possibly related to Oceans' comments re CAPE/instability versus gradient) more than merely seem to conflict - the former 'feeds back' at grid points and that disrupts the 'fluid evolution' of the baroclinic wave/strata form/advection phenomenon. fascinating sort of study in that I suppose - even though the we missed out on much need rains. That's pretty much what Kevin said I think, lol. I think the synoptics of the LLJ and frontal boundary being further south makes the most sense...taking away the efficient forcing expected over SNE in some of those model runs. The LLJ slamming high pwat air into a sloped frontal zone would've been quite prolific if it didn't all shift SE. I feel your pain though, at least you guys get these busts in summer and we get the winter versions of the SE shift . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 Best wind of the summer right now way cooler no rain or thunder yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 2 hours ago, CT Rain said: It happened enough last winter! I will say the 4km NAM/WRFs are getting better and better. They've lead the way a few times... including last winter. Seeing the high res stuff pull the plug at 12z yesterday even though the lower res globals were still bullish was a big caution flag. Meanwhile, not to sound like Cliff Mass, but our ensemble capability in the US absolutely blows. But you still went .50-1.50 +. Interest8ng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Depending on how much sun.. Places like CEF, BDL, HFD could make a run at day 9 straight of 90, but likely fall short .BDL hit 90.. Day 9 of the heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 We grabbed a few more hundredths early this afternoon and then just now Local fire crews still dealing with brush fires. Water bans in effect. Some wells going dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 and this "soaking" brought in the soaking humidity. i feel like i am on an island in the florida keys, minus the scorching heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 0.24" from the overnight into early morning rain .. an additional 0.43" since about 8 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 13 hours ago, JC-CT said: Cool! OVG is my accounting client. Kinda figured there was only one tree park on the Cape lol. Hey, that's cool you have OVG as a client. Their aerial parks are pretty cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 Hey, that's cool you have OVG as a client. Their aerial parks are pretty cool!Heck yeah they are. You guys are doing really well this year too. The reservation system is paying off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 It seemed like the s/w responsible wasn't overly impressive. There was an event last July that had a band of heavy deformation like rain on the north side and I doubted it. It ended up pouring big time, but the s/w responsible was really curled up IIRC. Without a good s/w...it's really tough to get the conveyor belts going with a lack of a good thermal gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 59 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Heck yeah they are. You guys are doing really well this year too. The reservation system is paying off. Ha! Good to know! Yes, the reservation system is a sanity saver! Last year right from opening day the lines were ridiculous...people would start lining up hours before we even opened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 It seemed like the s/w responsible wasn't overly impressive. There was an event last July that had a band of heavy deformation like rain on the north side and I doubted it. It ended up pouring big time, but the s/w responsible was really curled up IIRC. Without a good s/w...it's really tough to get the conveyor belts going with a lack of a good thermal gradient. This thread is about tree parks. Take your weather b/s to the nerd forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 Looking at radar it's almost like all that modeling for that other thing should've been for tonight and tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 Looking at radar it's almost like all that modeling for that other thing should've been for tonight and tomorrow morningYeah, except for the rain part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 26 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Yeah, except for the rain part. Bark may be worse than the bite. Noticing the overall coverage of higher DBZ returns and all of it looks like it's weakened over the last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 Radar shows green overhead, but nothing reaching the ground here in lower death valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 19 minutes ago, Brewbeer said: Radar shows green overhead, but nothing reaching the ground here in lower death valley. About .5 here up the line. Settled the dust anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 1 hour ago, scoob40 said: About .5 here up the line. Settled the dust anyways. Nothing measurable yet in the rain gage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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