Friday Soaking

[powderfreak]

lol jeez what a fail.

[JC-CT]

The hires never seemed to like this to be north.

[JC-CT]

The hires never seemed to like this to be north.

[TalcottWx]

There was some cape yesterday north of the heavy rain on euro. Scattered storms nw of the subsidence 

[RIcoastalWX]

71/67 - Light Rain/Sprinkles 

1.03 total rainfall since midnight.  

[Damage In Tolland]

The 12z Wednesday Euro gave HFD 4.2 inches of rain. That's when a lot of folks started going nuts about epic rains. By 00z the south shift started in earnest , but then the gefs and Eps gave high probs, so mets still went nuts. This has happened so many times the last 4-5 months. Something is causing these odd south trends . It's mostly due to convective errors as we surmised a couple days back 

[wxeyeNH]

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The 12z Wednesday Euro gave HFD 4.2 inches of rain. That's when a lot of folks started going nuts about epic rains. By 00z the south shift started in earnest , but then the gefs and Eps gave high probs, so mets still went nuts. This has happened so many times the last 4-5 months. Something is causing these odd south trends . It's mostly due to convective errors as we surmised a couple days back 

Well last nights Euro has 2-4" of rain later this weekend up here in NNE.  With the south trend you guys down there should be all set!

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

lol jeez what a fail.

No fail here.  Expected zero, got zero.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

lol jeez what a fail.

The weather in July, the winter will remind?

[TalcottWx]

Kevin I agree. I started to track this late. I have been late to events all summer. Modeling and nowcasting all pointed south emphatically. I was a little puzzled as to the excitement. I guess it's because I didn't see the earlier (further north) runs.

[IrishRob17]

Its a been a real soaking over here...soaking up the sun 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The 12z Wednesday Euro gave HFD 4.2 inches of rain. That's when a lot of folks started going nuts about epic rains. By 00z the south shift started in earnest , but then the gefs and Eps gave high probs, so mets still went nuts. This has happened so many times the last 4-5 months. Something is causing these odd south trends . It's mostly due to convective errors as we surmised a couple days back 

I haven't noticed any south trends up here haha.  To me it seems like they trend north with time up here.

You are in full NNE winter mode...follow persistence.  It may never rain (snow) again.  I know most mets hate following persistence but there often is something to it.  When in a rut, you're in it until you're not (haha).

[Baroclinic Zone]

0.11" of evaporation.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

0.11" of evaporation.

Congrats, just enough to boost the humidity.

[wxeyeNH]

Well guys the good news is that after this fail there is still hope.  Euro has been forecasting a good soak for much of New England Sunday/Monday.  Indicating a good 2-4" for much of Central/NNE and another jackpot for Connecticut.  E Mass and further east into Maine gets less but still over .50".   I'll believe it when I see it but its only 48 hours out so we should get something meaningful out of it even if its not the crazy high amounts for some of us.

[wxeyeNH]

Well guys the good news is that after this fail there is still hope.  Euro has been forecasting a good soak for much of New England Sunday/Monday.  Indicating a good 2-4" for much of Central/NNE and another jackpot for Connecticut.  E Mass and further east into Maine gets less but still over .50".   I'll believe it when I see it but its only 48 hours out so we should get something meaningful out of it even if its not the crazy high amounts for some of us.

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

lol jeez what a fail.

once the RGEM showed it a miss at 18z yesterday, the writing was on the wall...rest of the models quickly followed suit.  Oh well.   .5 here I'll take it.

[New England Storm]

0.02 of rain...... lawn is sad. 

[Damage In Tolland]

30 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Well guys the good news is that after this fail there is still hope.  Euro has been forecasting a good soak for much of New England Sunday/Monday.  Indicating a good 2-4" for much of Central/NNE and another jackpot for Connecticut.  E Mass and further east into Maine gets less but still over .50".   I'll believe it when I see it but its only 48 hours out so we should get something meaningful out of it even if its not the crazy high amounts for some of us.

I'd toss all that. It's just convection. And mostly WNE

[Damage In Tolland]

30 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Well guys the good news is that after this fail there is still hope.  Euro has been forecasting a good soak for much of New England Sunday/Monday.  Indicating a good 2-4" for much of Central/NNE and another jackpot for Connecticut.  E Mass and further east into Maine gets less but still over .50".   I'll believe it when I see it but its only 48 hours out so we should get something meaningful out of it even if its not the crazy high amounts for some of us.

I'd toss all that. It's just convection. And mostly WNE

[S&P]

.44" here. anything is welcome at this point

[powderfreak]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I'd toss all that. It's just convection. And mostly WNE

So no rain at all early in the week?  

 

[OceanStWx]

3 hours ago, JC-CT said:

The hires never seemed to like this to be north.

Plenty of hi-res guidance had north precip maxes. It's just the nature of convection on models. Sometimes it's Long Island, next run it's Mass Pike, etc.

[OceanStWx]

There are valid, scientific reasons (beyond persistence) why convection would err south. Where's the largest CAPE likely to be? Where it's hotter and more humid, or south.

However, for the same reasons modeling can often err too far south with convection, as it runs it into the CAPE max rather than the gradients.

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

There are valid, scientific reasons (beyond persistence) why convection would err south. Where's the largest CAPE likely to be? Where it's hotter and more humid, or south.

However, for the same reasons modeling can often err too far south with convection, as it runs it into the CAPE max rather than the gradients.

I think part of the issue here was that the low the models were developing (even the globals) was really tied to the convection. As that convection formed way south it effectively prevented that strong LLJ and front from setting up over the South Coast. It seems that it's not a "moisture being robbed issue" but that the front/LLJ wound up about 150 miles south than GEFS/EPS had. 

Compare 00z Friday and 00z Thursday 850mb height/wind speed on the op Euro for 12z/18z Friday.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I think part of the issue here was that the low the models were developing (even the globals) was really tied to the convection. As that convection formed way south it effectively prevented that strong LLJ and front from setting up over the South Coast. It seems that it's not a "moisture being robbed issue" but that the front/LLJ wound up about 150 miles south than GEFS/EPS had. 

Compare 00z Friday and 00z Thursday 850mb height/wind speed on the op Euro for 12z/18z Friday.

Nice preview of winter for SNE? 

[CT Rain]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Nice preview of winter for SNE? 

It happened enough last winter!

I will say the 4km NAM/WRFs are getting better and better. They've lead the way a few times... including last winter. Seeing the high res stuff pull the plug at 12z yesterday even though the lower res globals were still bullish was a big caution flag. 

Meanwhile, not to sound like Cliff Mass, but our ensemble capability in the US absolutely blows.

 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

It happened enough last winter!

I will say the 4km NAM/WRFs are getting better and better. They've lead the way a few times... including last winter. Seeing the high res stuff pull the plug at 12z yesterday even though the lower res globals were still bullish was a big caution flag. 

Meanwhile, not to sound like Cliff Mass, but our ensemble capability in the US absolutely blows.

We've at least got some new tools that seem to have promise.

NCAR ensembles got decidedly more bearish (and they weren't even enthusiastic to begin with) from 00z Thu to 00z Fri.

 

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

We've at least got some new tools that seem to have promise.

NCAR ensembles got decidedly more bearish (and they weren't even enthusiastic to begin with) from 00z Thu to 00z Fri.

 

Definitely better... though by the time the 00z Friday run came out it was pretty clear it was already game over.

Our in-house WRF and the SUNY Stony Brook WRF had a nice handle on things aftrer some initially bullish predictions they backed off big time Thursday. It's really hard to figure out when the high res stuff is catching on to reality or just out to lunch lol.

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Definitely better... though by the time the 00z Friday run came out it was pretty clear it was already game over.

Our in-house WRF and the SUNY Stony Brook WRF had a nice handle on things aftrer some initially bullish predictions they backed off big time Thursday. It's really hard to figure out when the high res stuff is catching on to reality or just out to lunch lol.

That's why I'm definitely an advocate more of the ensemble approach with the hi-res stuff, especially when it comes to accumulated products. I mean the HRRR runs so frequently, and changes so often that an ensemble can really show you how things are changing hour by hour. And that NCAR ensemble really needs to be run at 12z too.